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At 09:49 AM 10/20/01 EDT, you wrote: >>>> Hi Bodo
What were you refering exactly at www.fools.com?
You are completely right anyway, people have no realistic expectancies. An institution representative came to my office 2 weeks ago and he made it clear that they would be extremly pleased if we could make a 15% average and that we would gat soon much more than the first $2 millions allocation. However we are heving a very hard time getting individual investors to invest with us. So boring!
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You may be right but I hope not :-) if you have developed trading systems that in their basic form (no significant optimization) in backtesting make a little more, lets be modest and say at least several 100% more, and they perform steadily like that over periods of one or more years. Then, is it unreasonable to keep testing these systems, and newer systems as you develop them, in today's market hoping that one of these days you can time your system entry right, like you have seen it happen in backtesting many times?
For me, if I were sure that the max return I could ever make was 10-15% I wouldn't be spending my time on development. For that return I can think of better things to do than sit behind a computer all day. Thinking in terms of 10-15% would take ALL the fun out of it for me! If I want to hear that kind of talk I can pretty well talk to any financial advisor in town.
There is a difference between an individual trader and an institutional trader. If you take the best one in each field, who would you think is getting the better return?
IMHO, a big handicap appears to be that many traders want to be invested all the time, nobodies system is perfect. If it goes out of sync don't argue the fact: go cash and wait patiently untill something works again. My systems have three positions: Long, Short and Cash.
How many on this list would be developing trading systems day-in day-out if they thought 15% would be the max they could ever make? Not too many I bet!
Happy development, Herman (Canadian dreamer).
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