Re: hello from a newbie - Now Lin Reg

["Theo E.M. Lockefeer" <sky40912@xxxxxxxxx>]

Bodo :

Interesting but is this an indicator or systemtest and could you please
give a "example who even a dummy (like me :) ) can understand
in a flash "
(a chart with explination could probably help)

Thanks

Theo Lockefeer.




----- Original Message -----
From: "Bodo Brochterbeck" <Minotaurus007@xxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, October 20, 2001 2:31 PM
Subject: Re: hello from a newbie - Now Lin Reg


> What I do with Linear Regression is:
>
> 1. Take the log(C) - because a linear rising log(C) is an exponential
rising chart
>    of the stocks I am looking for. Log(C) and the projections are superior
to C.
> 2. LinRegSlope(log(C)) will give us the projection, preferably annualized.
> 3. Calculate the projected standard-deviations. -1s, -2s, or even -5s.
> 4. Screen NASDAQ stocks for the best annual projection.
> 5. Apply some entry-techniques (trailing buy stop for example).
> 6. Tight money management
> 7. Tight stops.
>
> Formula for (1) and (2), to be modified with input() etc.:
>
> watch:= 63; {lookback period}
> ttt:=252;   {projection periods}
> mmm:=LinRegSlope( Log(C), watch ); {LinRegSlope}
> sss:=Stdev(ROC(Log(C),1,$),watch); {StandardDeviation of daily ROCs}
> ra:=(Exp(mmm*ttt-2*sss*Sqrt(ttt))-1)*100; {Projection -2SD;"risk averse"}
> pe:=(Exp(mmm*ttt-  sss*Sqrt(ttt))-1)*100; {Projection -1SD;"pessimistic"}
> ne:=(Exp(mmm*ttt                )-1)*100; {neutral}
> op:=(Exp(mmm*ttt+  sss*Sqrt(ttt))-1)*100; {Projection +1SD;"optimistic"}
> ra; {to display}
>
> Bodo
>
>
>