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Hi Onno,
no matter which index or security you will take, the result will always be anywhere near 87.5% for statistical reasons, try it for different securities! Therefore, you cannot call your formula an "indicator".
However, it is useful to estimate the "reliability" of any Bollinger Band configuration. With your tool you can easily fine tune the parameters to get any level of "reliability".
For example, if you wish to get a reliability of about 95%, you could change:
standard deviation -> 2.4
Conclusion: your idea is not to be seen as an indicator itself but as an evaluator of a Bollinger Band indicator. You probably know anyway...
Regards,
Bodo
*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
On 20.09.01 at 21:10 onno goedknegt wrote:
> Recently I developed a formula which shows the "reliability" of
> Bollinger Bands. The indicator shows the chances the close is within
> the Bollinger Bands:
>
> (Cum(If(C>=BBandBot(C,20,S,2) AND
> C<=BBandTop(C,20,S,2),1,0)))/(-19+Cum(1))
>
> For the DJIA 1900-1997: 87.5 %
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