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Dear Americans, fellow citizens of the free world,
before we start thinking about consequences for the financial markets,
and especially before we start indentifying a culprit, i.c. technology -
as Mr. Chenier seems to think, I'd like to express some thoughts.
The free and democratic parts of the world are - and have been under
siege by inimical forces for a long time; eg. by the French terrorists
called "Action Directe", the German "RAF", Basque's
"ETA", Ulster "IRA" and "Provos",
"Hamas", "Jihad xyz", etc, etc. (and don't forget the
frequent assasinations by bombers in the 19th. century, one of which
started the first world war.)
These terrorists' purpose, often unstated, has always been to remake
us in their own nihilistic and destructive image. And make no mistake, in
several instances they have to a certain degree been successful. The
so-called "lex Baader-Meinhof" in Germany for instance, was a
law that significantly encroached on civil liberties.
Furthermore, terror, i.c. hijackings, assasinations, bombings, are
effective and especially *cheap* means of warfare, that can quite easily
be implemented by evil egomaniacs who can rely on a substrate of
fanaticised followers.
On the other hand European governments have in the past repeatedly
been quite successful against terrorists: the RAF and its follow-up
organization is no more, the infamous terrorist called Carlos rots in a
French prison and is certain never to be released in this life.
Also, terrorists have a cardinal weakness insofar as their view of
our society is fundamentally flawed. Because they themselves think and
are organized along strictly authoritarian and hierarchical lines, they
think that western society can be defeated by strikes against our top
level people and/or institutions. That this is a fallacy, and that
democracy is decentralized and very resilient (which is largely true for
present-day technology as well, btw.) can never enter their heads.
Similarities to the attack on Pearl Harbour do indeed come to mind.
The Japanese imperialists made the very same mistake by thinking that
they could strike one decisive blow against the USA. Instead, the
rightful wrath and rage of the American people they evoked was the surest
guarantee of their own doom.
A couple of minutes ago I heard that Nato has invoked the "Case
of Alliance", as I think it's called in English, thus demonstrating
that we, the free world, have really learned something: Attack one of us,
and you've attacked all of us.
To the present attack
I was deeply impressed by the incredible courage of the New Yorkers
in the face of murder and wholesale destruction: Nary a sign of panic or
"sauve qui peut"; instead one saw the orderly evacuation of the
buildings that must have saved many lives; people helping others although
their own life and limb was in immediate danger, and innumerable
instances of individual courage and helpfulness in the face of immense
threats.
As regards the attack itself, in terms of money I don't think it has
been very expensive - for the perpetrators I mean. Expensive were the
meticulous planning and execution, but it was especially expensive in
terms of personnel. Compare it to the kamikaze bombings in Israel: There
they take a fully indoctrinated, hate-crazed jarhead, hang an
explosives-loaded vest on him, fill him up to the gills with drugs, and
send him on his mission. On the other hand the present attack called for
at least four fully educated pilots along with a couple of henchmen who
could at least partly blend in with their American surroundings.
It's obviously *much* more difficult to find an educated person (i.c.
a jet pilot) who is prepared to blow himself to smithereens than some
poor ignorant jarhead. This leads me to think that a repetition of this
kind of attack is extremely improbable, at least in the coming months,
maybe years.
Again, the extensive preparations, and the fact that educated pilots
were involved, increases the probability that investigations will be
successful to a near certainty.
A final remark on prevention. An effective prevention against
terrorist attacks is nearly impossible. How for instance would one have
prevented the recent bombings in Duesseldorf (Germany), Milano (Italy) or
the poison-gas attacks against Japanese subways. The Israelis seem to be
the only ones who have an effective system against plane hijackings in
place: An armoured bulkhead between the cockpit and the passenger area,
and - much more importantly - security officers on board *every* El Al
flight.
This measure appears to me as the only really effective system.
Airport checks are ultimately ineffective against a determined hijacker:
Ceramic knives and nearly completely non-metallic guns are virtually
undetectable. Are we willing and able to put security personnel on each
and every passenger flight?
Finally, allow me to once again express my horror about what
happened, as well as my deeply felt commiseration with the victims and
their friends and family, especially with the financial community -
fellow traders - which was in the center of this despicable and cowardly
attack. Be assured of the solidarity of the whole free world and all
people of good will.
Jan Willem E. Roberts
At 14:28 12.09.01 -0400, you wrote:
Theday
after.
While we mourn our friends, acquaintances and colleagues ourduty is to
understand what will be the impact of yesterday’s tragedy on
thefinancial
markets. This major event could mark a shift away from America’sheavy
reliance on technology and have tremendous consequences on the wayAmerica
function on the way.
Firstly the failure of American intelligence is obvious. American
intelligence relies heavily on signals intelligence (SIGINT). Signals
intelligence includes any intelligence collected from intercepted
communications, such as microwave, landlines secret writing, or
electromagnetic emanations (e.g., foreign radar signals or telemetry from
an
object of intelligence interest.) This strategy has clearly
shown its
limits in fighting terrorism, which is likely to be the war of the
future.
Secondly, the “Star War” pet project of president Bush has been
proved today
to be a dream that would be unable to protect the American population
from
terrorists attacks. Again high tech and huge amount of taxpayers’ money
is of
little help to fight determined terrorist.
Thirdly, we all go through metal detectors and X-Ray machines before
boarding
aircrafts. Yet fanatics have been able to smuggle weapons in order to
highjack several airplanes.
As for the World Trade center itself, it may look as another failure of
technology. It was planned to stand a 707 crash. The fact that the World
Trade Center has been targeted twice is no coincidence. To gather so many
people in the same place was an accident waiting to happen. The fact that
the
technology did exist to build it should not have been a reason good
enough to
do it. Again there was a huge amount of money spent and a naive belief in
technology. Yesterday’s tragedy may lead the American people to
reassess its
belief in technology. A very possible consequence of yesterday’s
horror may
be a continuous slide on the technology laden Nasdaq index. All the stock
indices will suffer, as whole sectors of the economy will be hurt:
financial
services of course (some of them head-quartered in the World Trade
Center,
other had their back offices), airlines, hotels etc. but the Nasdaq is
likely
to suffer the most. In last week’s newsletter (see our web site
www.alterama.com)
we were forecasting a drop of the S&P500 to 930, an
objective that we might reach sooner than we thought. As for the Nasdaq
100,
we reiterate the objective of 1,100 that we stated several times in
2001.
Jean Jacques Chenier
Alternative Asset Management, Inc.
Tel: 646 840 0385
E-mail: JChenier@xxxxxxxxxxxx
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