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Re: Evaluating MS Trading Systems



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Thanks Bruce. I never knew that was there.    This will be a big help.

Tom
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bruce Barnard" <bruce@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 6:31 PM
Subject: Re: Evaluating MS Trading Systems


> Go to Explorer.....EDIT.....then OPTIONS, and you can choose the date you
> wish.
>                             Bruce Barnard
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Tom Sprunger <tlsprunger@xxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, June 26, 2001 10:55 AM
> Subject: Re: Evaluating MS Trading Systems
>
>
> > I am running the EOD version.  In Explorer...Options I have no option to
> > change the date.  I can only choose  "Load x records" or "Load Minimum
> > records".  No option to pick any specific dates. Does the Pro version
have
> > the capability to change the exploration dates?
> >
> > Tom
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Dave Nadeau" <dave_nadeau@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 4:55 PM
> > Subject: Re: Evaluating MS Trading Systems
> >
> >
> > > Lionel,
> > >
> > > Yes, it does allow this.  And you could use the feature to track the
> > performance of your top
> > > selections into the next two date ranges.  Good call!
> > >
> > > Tom,
> > >
> > > In the Explorer, when editing a specific exploration, you can click
> > Options.... and select a
> > > specific date for the exploration.  That's how I'd split the
exploration
> > across three date ranges.
> > >
> > > And, yes, six columns is fairly limiting, especially when you are
> running
> > and rerunning multiple
> > > explorations across large portfolios....ugh!
> > >
> > > Dave Nadeau
> > >
> > > --- Lionel Issen <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > > > Doesn't V 7.x of Metastock allow you to take the results of one
> > exploration
> > > > and use it as the input for another?
> > > > Lionel Issen
> > > > lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Tom Sprunger" <tlsprunger@xxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 12:35 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: Evaluating MS Trading Systems
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Dave, you can't test different time periods in the Explorer unless
> > they
> > > > all
> > > > > end in the last (most current) date, can you?
> > > > >
> > > > > By the way, being limited to 6 columns in the Explorer sure is a
> pain
> > for
> > > > > system testing!  Sure limits you to what you can report.
> > > > >
> > > > > Tom
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Dave Nadeau" <dave_nadeau@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 12:00 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: Evaluating MS Trading Systems
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Herman,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I don't use the MSBT, but do the same sort of thing using the
> > Explorer.
> > > > I
> > > > > will code many of the
> > > > > > metrics that you are discussing and compare them across multiple
> > > > > securities in a portfolio.  You
> > > > > > have some very good ideas and I would like to experiment with
some
> > of
> > > > them
> > > > > in my future tests.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Another idea that may be worth trying is this:  split your data
> into
> > > > three
> > > > > date ranges (assuming
> > > > > > sufficient number of data points for a statistically valid
> result).
> > My
> > > > > theory is that when I
> > > > > > create a system that is successful, it exploits a market
behavior
> > that
> > > > is
> > > > > consistent and
> > > > > > persistent.  An example is a trend following system.  Some
markets
> > trend
> > > > > better than others,
> > > > > > especially certain commodities.    PREMISE:  Generally speaking,
> > i.e.
> > > > > across a group of these,
> > > > > > that market which trends will be more likely to trend in the
> future
> > than
> > > > a
> > > > > market which is choppy.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > So taking the best performing issues in the first date range,
> should
> > be
> > > > > the better performing set
> > > > > > in the next data range, and then, the third.  There will be
> > variation
> > > > > among some of the issues, of
> > > > > > course, but in general, I'm looking for this to be true.  If so,
> > then I
> > > > > get a good feeling for the
> > > > > > robustness of my system as well as the expectation of its
> > performance in
> > > > > the future.  When I find
> > > > > > systems that do not do this, my sense is that they are not much
> > better
> > > > > than random, and are more
> > > > > > of a curve fit rather than one I'd trust trading real dollars.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > This approach tends to be more of a securities fit, rather than
a
> > curve
> > > > > fit.  It's just another
> > > > > > way to slice and evaluate a system.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Dave Nadeau
> > > > > > Fort Collins, CO
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- Herman van den Bergen <psytek@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > At 08:00 PM 6/24/01 -0500, you wrote:
> > > > > > > >What is MSBT?
> > > > > > > >Lionel Issen
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > MSBT (Multiple Security Back Testing) is an add-in for
> Metastock.
> > I
> > > > use
> > > > > it
> > > > > > > to test my trading systems on various stock selections (50 -
> 8000
> > > > > stocks).
> > > > > > > It takes about ten minutes to process 8000 stocks and produces
a
> > Excel
> > > > > > > compatible (.csv) report with about 50 stats (like in the MS
> > system
> > > > > tester)
> > > > > > > for each stock tested.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I like this add-in because it gives me an immediate idea of
how
> > robust
> > > > > my
> > > > > > > system is. Testing my system on a large universe of stocks and
> > knowing
> > > > > for
> > > > > > > how many stocks the ROI actually improved, gives me a good
> (well,
> > > > > sometimes
> > > > > > > not so good...) indicator of the "robustness" of my system.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The ratio (number of stocks with improved ROI)/(Total number
of
> > > > stocks)
> > > > > > > makes a nice Robustness Index. It is also interesting to run
> tests
> > on
> > > > > > > different sectors or other categories of stocks. It would be
> > > > interesting
> > > > > to
> > > > > > > learn what kind of RB-Index other developers manage to
obtain -
> > > > anybody
> > > > > > > care to share? I typically get 35% however I have have a
sorting
> > > > problem
> > > > > > > related to negative B/H indices - so I think my ratio is
> actually
> > much
> > > > > > > better. Anybody calculated this ratio?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > My systems tend to be too specific and finding stocks that
trade
> > well
> > > > > with
> > > > > > > my system was difficult. Using the MSBT you run your system on
> all
> > > > 8000
> > > > > > > stocks (or less) and see immediately which stocks performed
well
> > with
> > > > > your
> > > > > > > system. I had some interesting surprises :-)
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > For more info visit
http://www.holygrailsoftware.com/msbt.shtml
> ,
> > the
> > > > > > > add-in costs $45.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Happy trading!
> > > > > > > Herman.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > __________________________________________________
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> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > __________________________________________________
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> > >
> >
> >
>
>