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Rick:
Thanks for your clarification.
You have to try out different optimization schemes to see which ones work
best for you. Optimization can drop you over the cliff or help you bust the
bank. You also need to use money management and exit rules.
Lionel Issen
lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
----- Original Message -----
From: "Rick Parsons" <RickParsons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, June 10, 2001 1:40 PM
Subject: RE: Steve Karnish Challenge
> Lionel,
>
> Sorry if is sounds like a personal vendetta. It is not. I respect
Steve's
> ideas and for the benefit of all who use or want to use optimization, I
(and
> others) would like to see if it is really possible to make consistent
money
> on an optimized mechanical system.
>
> I am no way bashing Steve. I am hoping he can show us that people do make
> money this way. After all if we can make money on mechanical systems,
then
> I sure would like to know how.
>
> Guess we are going about it in a unusual way.
>
> Rick
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Lionel Issen
> Sent: Sunday, June 10, 2001 12:56 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Steve Karnish Challenge
>
>
> Rick:
> This personal vendetta and challenges must stop. It is counterproductive
> and distracting to most of us.
> If you want to challenge Steve Karnish please do so privately, then post
> the results if you want to.
> Lionel Issen
> lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Rick Parsons" <RickParsons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, June 10, 2001 9:35 AM
> Subject: Steve Karnish Challenge
>
>
> > Steve,
> >
> > I guess if I'm a cynic, it is because it is what I have experienced and
> seen
> > in the past. As I said on my email, I am open minded enough to realize
> > anything is possible. So I accept your challenge.
> >
> > I will check with a dozen users if you provide me their email addresses.
> I
> > sincerely hope you and your users prove me wrong. If I am wrong, then I
> > will be more than glad to apologize. I probably will even trade your
> system
> > and become your strongest supporter. And I will have learned a valuable
> > lesson too!
> >
> > Of course we must all realize you have the advantage of picking the
dozen
> > names. No doubt you can easily pick and choose among your list to give
> > yourself an advantage.
> >
> > I have been looking over your website and have a several questions:
> > 1) Are the free stock picks chosen by using the free momentum
oscillators
> > listed on your website? Or do you use a proprietary system?
> > 2) I see your charts showing buy and sell signals go back one year.
For
> > how long have you actually traded these systems using real money?
> > 3) I notice many of your buy signals show large drawdowns before they
> > recover and exit at a profit. Can you post the system statistics on
each
> > stock chart so we can see the maximum drawdowns?
> > 4) How often do you re-optimize the momentum oscillators if at all?
> >
> > Thanks for taking the time to help me understand your methods.
> >
> > Thanks,
> >
> > Rick
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> > Sent: Saturday, June 09, 2001 2:32 PM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: QQQ System Test Optimizations
> >
> >
> > Rick,
> >
> > I seldom waste my time with cynics...but, which would you prefer:
audited
> > statements or a list of a dozen clients to contact?
> >
> > The problem is not developing something that works...the problem is
> dealing
> > with people, like yourself, who are so prejudiced and frustrated by
their
> > own inability to appreciate equity (they "transfer" these inadequacies
to
> > all traders, brokers, and vendors).
> >
> > You got it all wrong Rick: Optimized systems are the "holy grails" we
all
> > dreamed about. They just happen to be lethal weapons in the hands of
the
> > pompous, unskilled and skeptical.
> >
> > I dare you to call my clients. I will give you all the numbers if you
> > report your findings and then apologize and admit that you are dead
wrong.
> > Blantant indictments are stupid and obtuse. Maybe if you could actually
> > develop something that worked and then had the character to follow the
> > rules, you'd feel differently about the subject. In the future, watch
> what
> > you say: the "thought police" WILL pull you over when you drive down
that
> > "dark road" you've chosen to cruise on.
> >
> > I've found that the largest critics of investment strategies often are
the
> > folks who fall into the traps that they criticize publicly. Moral: "Qui
> non
> > intellegit, aut taceat aut discat".
> >
> > Take care,
> >
> > Steve Karnish, CTA
> > Cedar Creek Trading
> > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Rick Parsons" <RickParsons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Saturday, June 09, 2001 8:54 AM
> > Subject: RE: QQQ System Test Optimizations
> >
> >
> > > Rudoff,
> > > Let me ask you this: Have you or anyone ever found an optimized
system
> > that
> > > has worked in every market over the course of years? (The Holy Grail)
> How
> > > many really manage to follow an optimized system over a long period of
> > time
> > > and ended up with a return that beats the market averages?
> > >
> > > I am sure there may be a few but I bet over 90% of all who have tried
> have
> > > given up their system at some point due to excessive drawdown, losses
or
> > > emotional second guessing.
> > >
> > > I often see advertisements in magazines or on the net for "optimized"
or
> > > "curve fitted" systems that supposedly give wonderful returns. Then I
> > look
> > > at the testimonials. Almost all testimonials are people who tried the
> > > system and were one of the few lucky ones to make money in their first
> few
> > > trades. They then rave about the system. But I have never seen a
> > > testimonial where a user says "I have been trading this system for 12
> > months
> > > (or more) and have consistently made money every single month for year
> or
> > > more.
> > >
> > > Often I will email the owners of the "system" and ask them if I can
> > contact
> > > some of their customers or if they have any chat rooms where the
system
> > is
> > > discussed. Almost every time they will say "We cannot give out
customer
> > > names due to privacy concerns" and "We do not have a chat room". If
> they
> > > say this it is because they don't want you to know that there are a
lot
> of
> > > unhappy customers out there. If the system was really that good, the
> best
> > > way a company can get more customers is to let current customers rave
> > about
> > > the product in a chat room. But you don't see that. At least I
> haven't.
> > >
> > > Perhaps someday someone will develop a system that does give
consistent
> > > market average beating returns year after year. Perhaps one exists
> right
> > > now. I am open minded enough to know that anything is possible but I
> will
> > > need to be able to verify the system by contacting customers who have
> > proven
> > > it works over a long period of time.
> > >
> > > Rick
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of rudolf stricker
> > > Sent: Friday, June 08, 2001 7:31 AM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: QQQ System Test Optimizations
> > >
> > >
> > > On Fri, 8 Jun 2001 13:03:28 -0500, you wrote:
> > >
> > > >Optimization is a variant of curve fitting.
> > >
> > > This looks confusing to me...
> > >
> > > Optimization is a process to select systematically a "best" set of
> > > values for a given parametric model to meet some given goals. So its
> > > not a bad thing at all, and I cannot understand this "optimization
> > > bashing" going on here.
> > > Moreover, _any_ TA work uses optimization, e.g. selecting an indicator
> > > from several available _is_ optimization.
> > >
> > > Most things criticized here in context with optimization do not deal
> > > with optimization itself but rather with a "bad" parametric model
> > > (e.g. robustness) or with an insufficient goal function (e.g. max
> > > drawdown, number of loosing trades, etc).
> > >
> > > >Curve fitting has been used for
> > > >a very long time to analyze data. One of the caveats of curve fitting
> is
> > > >that you don't use the fitted curve for conditions that are beyond
the
> > > range
> > > >of data.
> > >
> > > Curve fitting is a fully accepted application area of general system
> > > modeling (i.e. a combination of a parametric model, a goal function,
> > > and an optimization procedure). And of coarse extrapolation can be a
> > > dangerous thing, if the _parametric model_ does not cover e.g.
> > > changes of the system behavior over time.
> > >
> > > So, we should not blame system optimization for everything done badly
> > > during parametric model and/or goal function setup.
> > >
> > > mfg rudolf stricker
> > > | Disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.
> > >
> >
>
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