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Absolutely not, how about opening a book. 50 GBp says Steve wins by a
country mile.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, June 10, 2001 5:55 PM
Subject: Re: Steve Karnish Challenge
> Rick:
> This personal vendetta and challenges must stop. It is counterproductive
> and distracting to most of us.
> If you want to challenge Steve Karnish please do so privately, then post
> the results if you want to.
> Lionel Issen
> lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Rick Parsons" <RickParsons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, June 10, 2001 9:35 AM
> Subject: Steve Karnish Challenge
>
>
> > Steve,
> >
> > I guess if I'm a cynic, it is because it is what I have experienced and
> seen
> > in the past. As I said on my email, I am open minded enough to realize
> > anything is possible. So I accept your challenge.
> >
> > I will check with a dozen users if you provide me their email addresses.
> I
> > sincerely hope you and your users prove me wrong. If I am wrong, then I
> > will be more than glad to apologize. I probably will even trade your
> system
> > and become your strongest supporter. And I will have learned a valuable
> > lesson too!
> >
> > Of course we must all realize you have the advantage of picking the
dozen
> > names. No doubt you can easily pick and choose among your list to give
> > yourself an advantage.
> >
> > I have been looking over your website and have a several questions:
> > 1) Are the free stock picks chosen by using the free momentum
oscillators
> > listed on your website? Or do you use a proprietary system?
> > 2) I see your charts showing buy and sell signals go back one year.
For
> > how long have you actually traded these systems using real money?
> > 3) I notice many of your buy signals show large drawdowns before they
> > recover and exit at a profit. Can you post the system statistics on
each
> > stock chart so we can see the maximum drawdowns?
> > 4) How often do you re-optimize the momentum oscillators if at all?
> >
> > Thanks for taking the time to help me understand your methods.
> >
> > Thanks,
> >
> > Rick
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> > Sent: Saturday, June 09, 2001 2:32 PM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: QQQ System Test Optimizations
> >
> >
> > Rick,
> >
> > I seldom waste my time with cynics...but, which would you prefer:
audited
> > statements or a list of a dozen clients to contact?
> >
> > The problem is not developing something that works...the problem is
> dealing
> > with people, like yourself, who are so prejudiced and frustrated by
their
> > own inability to appreciate equity (they "transfer" these inadequacies
to
> > all traders, brokers, and vendors).
> >
> > You got it all wrong Rick: Optimized systems are the "holy grails" we
all
> > dreamed about. They just happen to be lethal weapons in the hands of
the
> > pompous, unskilled and skeptical.
> >
> > I dare you to call my clients. I will give you all the numbers if you
> > report your findings and then apologize and admit that you are dead
wrong.
> > Blantant indictments are stupid and obtuse. Maybe if you could actually
> > develop something that worked and then had the character to follow the
> > rules, you'd feel differently about the subject. In the future, watch
> what
> > you say: the "thought police" WILL pull you over when you drive down
that
> > "dark road" you've chosen to cruise on.
> >
> > I've found that the largest critics of investment strategies often are
the
> > folks who fall into the traps that they criticize publicly. Moral: "Qui
> non
> > intellegit, aut taceat aut discat".
> >
> > Take care,
> >
> > Steve Karnish, CTA
> > Cedar Creek Trading
> > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Rick Parsons" <RickParsons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Saturday, June 09, 2001 8:54 AM
> > Subject: RE: QQQ System Test Optimizations
> >
> >
> > > Rudoff,
> > > Let me ask you this: Have you or anyone ever found an optimized
system
> > that
> > > has worked in every market over the course of years? (The Holy Grail)
> How
> > > many really manage to follow an optimized system over a long period of
> > time
> > > and ended up with a return that beats the market averages?
> > >
> > > I am sure there may be a few but I bet over 90% of all who have tried
> have
> > > given up their system at some point due to excessive drawdown, losses
or
> > > emotional second guessing.
> > >
> > > I often see advertisements in magazines or on the net for "optimized"
or
> > > "curve fitted" systems that supposedly give wonderful returns. Then I
> > look
> > > at the testimonials. Almost all testimonials are people who tried the
> > > system and were one of the few lucky ones to make money in their first
> few
> > > trades. They then rave about the system. But I have never seen a
> > > testimonial where a user says "I have been trading this system for 12
> > months
> > > (or more) and have consistently made money every single month for year
> or
> > > more.
> > >
> > > Often I will email the owners of the "system" and ask them if I can
> > contact
> > > some of their customers or if they have any chat rooms where the
system
> > is
> > > discussed. Almost every time they will say "We cannot give out
customer
> > > names due to privacy concerns" and "We do not have a chat room". If
> they
> > > say this it is because they don't want you to know that there are a
lot
> of
> > > unhappy customers out there. If the system was really that good, the
> best
> > > way a company can get more customers is to let current customers rave
> > about
> > > the product in a chat room. But you don't see that. At least I
> haven't.
> > >
> > > Perhaps someday someone will develop a system that does give
consistent
> > > market average beating returns year after year. Perhaps one exists
> right
> > > now. I am open minded enough to know that anything is possible but I
> will
> > > need to be able to verify the system by contacting customers who have
> > proven
> > > it works over a long period of time.
> > >
> > > Rick
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of rudolf stricker
> > > Sent: Friday, June 08, 2001 7:31 AM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: QQQ System Test Optimizations
> > >
> > >
> > > On Fri, 8 Jun 2001 13:03:28 -0500, you wrote:
> > >
> > > >Optimization is a variant of curve fitting.
> > >
> > > This looks confusing to me...
> > >
> > > Optimization is a process to select systematically a "best" set of
> > > values for a given parametric model to meet some given goals. So its
> > > not a bad thing at all, and I cannot understand this "optimization
> > > bashing" going on here.
> > > Moreover, _any_ TA work uses optimization, e.g. selecting an indicator
> > > from several available _is_ optimization.
> > >
> > > Most things criticized here in context with optimization do not deal
> > > with optimization itself but rather with a "bad" parametric model
> > > (e.g. robustness) or with an insufficient goal function (e.g. max
> > > drawdown, number of loosing trades, etc).
> > >
> > > >Curve fitting has been used for
> > > >a very long time to analyze data. One of the caveats of curve fitting
> is
> > > >that you don't use the fitted curve for conditions that are beyond
the
> > > range
> > > >of data.
> > >
> > > Curve fitting is a fully accepted application area of general system
> > > modeling (i.e. a combination of a parametric model, a goal function,
> > > and an optimization procedure). And of coarse extrapolation can be a
> > > dangerous thing, if the _parametric model_ does not cover e.g.
> > > changes of the system behavior over time.
> > >
> > > So, we should not blame system optimization for everything done badly
> > > during parametric model and/or goal function setup.
> > >
> > > mfg rudolf stricker
> > > | Disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.
> > >
> >
>
>
>
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