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Neo,
There are as many definitions of long-term trend as traders. Many people
plot the 200 day MA (exponential, weighted, or simple) and see if the
security is above the MA as being a bull market. This is a rather
simplistic
approach. You can also use something like Telephone switch newsletter and
use
multiple indices and require 2 out of 3 to be above their 200 day MA to
define
a bull market. Another technique is to take a set of broad based mutual
funds
and composite the results and draw the 200 day MA of this composite. This
is
a technique found in Investor's Business Daily. Other approaches include
a positive slope on a linear regression line of say a 100 periods. I have
also
seen analysis using 400 day MA. In other words, I would not get too excited
by labeling the market as bull/bear. It is more important to define your
trading timeframe and look one timeframe above/below your trading timeframe
for entry/exit timing.
Thanks,
Ron
P.S. Some traders also impose an additional requirement that the 200 day MA
is
moving up (i.e., 200 day MA yesterday < 200 day MA today).
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of neo
> Sent: Wednesday, October 25, 2000 3:47 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Long term trend
>
>
> The 200 day MA is commonly used to denote if we are in a long term bull or
> bear market. How would one define this? Is it the price crossing
> the 200 day
> MA or would it be a cross of a longer MA? If so, how long? 205, 220, 250,
> 500 days?
>
> thanks
>
> neo
>
>
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