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Hello, Mr. Fox,
Thank you very much for detailed explanation. I understood what you see
now. I am actually also suspicious of this rally and expecting the market
to slide further down, but I needed to understand what you saw in the
oscillator. One thing people are not paying enough attention is the
"commercial traders' " short interest of SP500 is still at record
levels. If it was public who were record level short, that would be
bullish, but the commercials usually rule. Secondly, I felt there was some
greed in the markets on Friday. I do not remember a decent decline ending
with greed. Usually, people are scared to buy and are convinced of further
declines and it is the commercials who begin to accumulate which is
detected by those divergences in oscillators like the Mc Clellan does as
you brought to our attention. Yes, I would like to join to your e-mail
list. There is no end of learning and I appreciate what you offer. Thank
you for sharing.
Murat Kuntel
At 05:25 AM 10/15/00 -0500, you wrote:
>Hi Mr. Kuntel.
>
>1st thank you for your question.
>
>Equis.com offers a very good explanation of the Mc Clellan
>Oscillator. Being a loyal user of Metastock, please review
>their definition as well as my comment below.
>
>Yes, your correct. The NYSE Mc Clellan oscillator was on 10/13 very
>oversold. And 10/13 was a Bottom or Low for the oscillator. But, not
>the low for the NYSE market, eg. DJIA.
>
>Interpreting the Mc Clellan Oscillator
>
>1] Is it Overbought ? Above 100 or higher?
>2] Is it Oversold ? Below -100 or lower?
>
>3] Now your going to look for a pattern in the future, of higher
>Mc Clellan oscillator postings in absolute terms, and a "lower"
>closing post by the comparison index, DJIA.
>
>4] Next compare the MCO to another index. Such as the NYSE, or
>DJIA. Record the post of the MCO and Index close. 10/12
>MCO was (-167) and DJIA close was 10,034. This now becomes
>your primary comparison to future postings.
>
>Real example.
>8/10/99 MCO='s -232 Dow 10,655.
>8/25/99 Rally off 8/10 fails, 11,326.
>We now go down again.
>9/24/99 MCO is -141 Dow 10,279.
>We have now setup a Bullish divergence pattern.
>10/18/99 MCO -135 and Dow 10,116.
>Bullish pattern is now complete. You confirm this by looking
>at other indicators, eg. MACD-Histogram, DJIA On Balance
>Volume, 9/day Money Flow Index. And last an Elliott Wave
>count could be added, for further verification....
>
>I hope this example above, depicts the general
>market trend that is likely in the coming weeks.
>
>Your welcome to join my email list, it's free. The email
>is not a newsletter, and not meant to be seen as a
>financial planner. It can serve as an educational tool
>and how to better understand what key indicators are
>saying. Thats all.
>
>Bud Fox
>
>
>
>
>
>Murat Kuntel wrote:
>> Bud,
>>
>>How do you interpret the position of Mc Clellan osc. in this case? It is
>>oversold, and one would rather expect a rally from here, but you expect
>>further down move.
>Yes, I do. The rally was not unexpected. The coming decline is expected
>because of a common pattern likely to evolve, and upcoming important
>market "turning points" 10/27 to 10/31..
>>What makes you think that the current level suggests that there will
>>another leg down in the coming days.
>The pattern of Bullish divergence has not yet developed. A DJIA decline to
>9,500 to 9,700 should be expected.
>> This is not to challenge your ability, but to inquire some information
>> that I lack.
>Thank you, I sincerely hope that this has been of help.
>>
>>
>>Murat
>>
>>
>>At 02:40 PM 10/14/00 -0500, you wrote:
>>>Hello.
>>>
>>>Looks like pretty common stuff Neo.
>>>
>>>1} A calendar
>>>2} Basic EW count
>>>3] And 135 trading day count from prior turning points.
>>>4] Mc Clellan Oscillator to assist....
>>>
>>>Bud Fox
>>>neo wrote:
>>>> MichaelWhat program or advisor service is this coming from?neo
>>>>marnoldi wrote:
>>>>>the analysis seems to be right on the mark, we finished wave 3 down &
>>>>>are within wave 4 up. the next wave 5 down should start soon & bottom on
>>>>>10/27/00 the NEW MOON date. ( note 10/13/00 was a FULL MOON turning
>>>>>point date)
>>>>>
>>>>>michael arnoldi
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