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Hi Mr. Kuntel.
1st thank you for your question.
Equis.com offers a very good
explanation of the Mc Clellan Oscillator. Being a loyal user of Metastock,
please review
their definition as well as
my comment below.
Yes, your correct. The
NYSE Mc Clellan oscillator was on 10/13 very
oversold. And 10/13
was a Bottom or Low for the oscillator. But, not the low for
the NYSE market, eg. DJIA.
Interpreting the Mc Clellan
Oscillator
1] Is it Overbought ?
Above 100 or higher?
2] Is it Oversold ?
Below -100 or lower?
3] Now your going to look
for a pattern in the future, of higher
Mc Clellan oscillator postings
in absolute terms, and a "lower"
closing post by the comparison
index, DJIA.
4] Next compare the MCO
to another index. Such as the NYSE, or
DJIA. Record the post
of the MCO and Index close. 10/12
MCO was (-167)
and DJIA close was 10,034. This now becomes
your primary comparison to
future postings.
Real example.
8/10/99 MCO='s
-232 Dow 10,655.
8/25/99 Rally off 8/10
fails, 11,326.
We now go down again.
9/24/99 MCO is -141 Dow
10,279.
We have now setup a Bullish
divergence pattern.
10/18/99 MCO -135 and Dow 10,116.
Bullish pattern is now complete.
You confirm this by looking
at other indicators, eg. MACD-Histogram,
DJIA On Balance
Volume, 9/day Money Flow
Index. And last an Elliott Wave
count could be added, for further
verification....
I hope this example above, depicts
the general
market trend that is likely
in the coming weeks.
Your welcome to join my email
list, it's free. The email
is not a newsletter, and not
meant to be seen as a
financial planner. It
can serve as an educational tool
and how to better understand
what key indicators are
saying. Thats all.
Bud Fox
Murat Kuntel wrote:
Bud,
How do you interpret the position of Mc Clellan osc. in this case?
It is oversold, and one would rather expect a rally from here, but you
expect further down move.
Yes, I do. The rally was not unexpected. The
coming decline is expected because of a common pattern likely to evolve,
and upcoming important market "turning points" 10/27 to 10/31..
What makes you think that the current level suggests
that there will another leg down in the coming days.
The pattern of Bullish divergence has not yet developed.
A DJIA decline to 9,500 to 9,700 should be expected.
This is not to challenge your ability, but
to inquire some information that I lack.
Thank you, I sincerely hope that this has been
of help.
Murat
At 02:40 PM 10/14/00 -0500, you wrote:
Hello.
Looks like pretty common stuff Neo.
1} A calendar
2} Basic EW count
3] And 135 trading day count from prior
turning points.
4] Mc Clellan Oscillator to assist....
Bud Fox
neo wrote:
MichaelWhat
program or advisor service is this coming from?neo
marnoldi wrote:
the analysis seems to be right on the mark, we finished wave 3 down &
are within wave 4 up. the next wave 5 down should start soon & bottom
on
10/27/00 the NEW MOON date. ( note 10/13/00 was a FULL MOON turning
point date)
michael arnoldi
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