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<DIV><FONT size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Thanks, at least he's not in
pain now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Look's like we all took another
hit today. However, the good news is that it sure looked like a climax
sell off. Tomorrow will be interesting.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Guy Tann </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, April 03, 2000 8:42
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: Weekly Pick</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">JimG<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Sorry
to hear about your wife’s father.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">What a
miserable, rotten day.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>We had a
buy signal for the S&P futures, which ended up as a positive trade.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I, OTOH, picked a really terrible day
to make my move into equities.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I
guess I should have warned the list, since I’ve always had the kiss of death
when it comes to stocks. </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT
color=navy face=Wingdings size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN
style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings">J</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN
class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I just thought that since my brother
has been so successful with his trading in the stock market, keyed to our
S&P signals, I’d give it a try.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
waited a bit this morning, but had to go into the office today, so I pulled
the trigger by 7AM (PST).<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Here
are my positions, for what they’re worth:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">AMAT<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">ERICY<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">FLEX<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">GMST<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">IDTI<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">JDSU<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">MEDI<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">NTAP<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">NVLS<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">ORCL<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">PMCS<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">QLGC<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">RNWK<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The
FLEX, IDTI and NVLS were added when the NASDAQ was down 250.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Still should have waited.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I guess, my better move was to wait
for the close.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Anyway,
at least the stuff I bought were shares of ‘real’ companies, not like some of
those paper tigers that took it in the shorts today.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Since we’re expecting some pretty good
earnings in the next 2 weeks, I don’t think we’ll be hurt too
badly.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Now,
I’ve got to look for various opportunities to add to my positions, since I’m
only a little over half invested (on
margin).<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Right
now, I’m going to take some baking soda to calm my stomach and the pizza my
little guy wanted for dinner this evening.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">BURP!<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoAutoSig><!--[if supportFields]><span class=EmailStyle17><font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>AUTOTEXTLIST \s "E-mail
Signature" <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></font></span><![endif]--><FONT
color=navy><SPAN style="COLOR: navy">Regards,</SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoAutoSig><FONT color=navy face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoAutoSig><FONT color=navy face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Guy </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoAutoSig><FONT color=navy face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Fax (630) 604-1589</SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><!--[if supportFields]><span class=EmailStyle17><font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></font></span><![endif]--><SPAN
class=EmailStyle17><FONT color=navy face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Tahoma
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">-----Original
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Jim Greening<BR><B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Saturday, April 01, 2000 8:38
PM<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B> Metastock<BR><B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Weekly Pick</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">All,</SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> I haven't
posted since my wife's father passed away a week ago Thursday. It's
been a sad and hectic time for us. He was a wonderful gentleman who
lived a long life and is at rest now. We will never forget him,
but life must go on.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> This
week's pick is GM’s Hughes Electronics Corp (GMH).<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>It is the publicly traded space and
wireless communications unit of automaker General Motors.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>GMH will sell its satellite
manufacturing and launch operations to Boeing.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>GMH which derives about 40% of
its sales from its satellite businesses will refocus on communications
services, including its DIRECTV, the largest US satellite TV broadcaster, with
9 million customers, the 19-satellite network PanAmSat (81%-owned), and
Spaceway, a global network that will offer broadband video and data on
demand.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>It also supplies wireless
business networks and other telecommunications equipment.
</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> GMH at 124 ½
just bounced off the bottom of its Intermediate Term Up Trend Channel
(ITUTC).<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The top of the ITUTC is
at 157 1/8 and the bottom is at 116.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>GMH broke out of a CANSLIM type cup formation and set an all time high
of 141 a little over a week ago before pulling back to bounce off the bottom
of its ITUTC.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>This looks like a
good entry point to me.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The
fundamentals are OK except that the price/sales is on the high side at
16.96.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The debt/equity is low at
0.16.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The sales will drop off for
a while with the sale of their satellite manufacturing and launch business,
but when assets are redeployed there should be amble worldwide growth in the
DIRECTV business.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I’ll open a
position Monday with my initial target just under the top of the ITUTC at 157
and my stop just under the bottom of the ITUTC at 115 3/4</SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> If you
want to see my chart, jump to <A
href="http://www.geocities.com/jimginva/";>http://www.geocities.com/jimginva/</A>
</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT
color=black face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">
</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "Metastock bulletin board" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: commodity report
Date: Tue, 4 Apr 2000 20:15:11 -0400
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Status:
04-04-2000
GRAINS
Wheat: Worries over a stock market that seemingly has no bottom (or buyers),
and improving crop conditions sent wheat lower despite news that Egypt
bought US wheat, although they bought more Australian wheat than US. Egypt
is the number one buyer of US wheat. Funds remain short and added 800
contracts to the short side today. The chart remains negative and leaves
open the prospect of testing the lows, possibly new lows. That being said,
I do not see the market as more negative than when the lows were scored. So
while I do see a test of the lows as possible, I don't see much
follow-through as likely.
As a reminder, the last digit refers to fractions of a cent except on the
net change. 2=1/4, 4=1/2, and 6=3/4.
Today's high, 2584, low 2540, close 2556, change = dn. 2
Resistance: basis May is 257, 265-264, 271-274, 280, 286, 290, 293, 300.
Support: basis May 253, 249, 246-244, 230.
Recommendation: No futures trade for now. Option traders should begin to
consider purchases of July calls, and if a bit more aggressive, sales of out
of the money puts.
Corn: Continued worries that the hoof and mouth epidemic in Asia will lead
to lower feed usage weighed on corn today, with weakness in the stock market
also adding a negative tilt to trade. There is talk that the disease, which
is very contagious, is spreading. Thus far it has been found mostly in
South Korea, but also in Japan. The affected animals have to be eliminated,
leading to the fears of lower usage. For the first time in a while weather
was not cited as behind price movement. Also weighing on corn is the South
American harvest, which is creating an alternate and cheaper source of
grain.
The dry weather isn't news. I was telling traders to be prepared for it
back in the winter. It was very clear then we weren't seeing the precip.
But now finally the funds are interested, but the reasoning, or more
precisely, the threat, isn't clear at this time. Consider: ground is dry,
but it needs to be dry to plant. Therefore if it rains, which the crop
needs ultimately, it will keep farmers out of the fields, which is bullish,
but the market will likely treat it as bearish. Do things sound circular
yet? And I'll repeat what an old farmer told me "If you want your bins to
bust, plant in the dust." Now there's a perspective from the producer, who
may be worried about the crop, but since he's about to spend a ton of money
in seed, fertilizers, chemicals etc., he has a right to be worried. And to
not indulge in wishful thinking. And finally, it's a long long way from now
to late June, early July, when the crop will be in danger. It's difficult
accepting whole-heartedly a market situation that seems to ultimately be the
funds pushing the market around. The cash is not leading the way, and in
fact that is one of the primary worries. We may price ourselves out of the
market. Remember the Southern Hemisphere? The guys who are either
harvesting or just finished? The ones with all the grain? I can assure
you, foreign end users have not.
So all that being said, how does one play this game? What if it does stay
dry now through pollination? Truthfully, then we are likely well on our way
to a huge bull market. And to provide for that eventuality, own calls.
Your risk is known and limited, and you can add or subtract with futures
and/or options depending on the circumstances. If the situation is really
bullish, you will not see much action like today. It won't go up, then
down. It will go up, then up some more. I still like the idea of owning
calls, but am not chasing the market.
Today's high, 2342, low 2300, close 2320, change= dn. 2 1/4
Resistance: Basis May is 234, 239, 242, 246, 248-250.
Support: Basis May is 226, 220-216, 213, 210, 206-207, 202, 199.
Recommendation: Most traders might consider options. Aggressive traders
might sell corn near current levels or near 234 looking for a decline to
227 or so, possibly lower if we see rain. Protect profits if they occur.
Option traders should begin to consider July and Sept. 230, 240, 250 and 260
calls. These could be a real bargain if we see any bullish developments. A
good way to capture solid profits but with a lower cash outlay might be to
buy Sept. 250 corn calls and sell 310 calls. These should be able to be
done about 11-12 cents cost ($550-$600) and offer the potential for profit
up to the 310 level or 60 cents ($3000) per spread. Time value erosion will
not be an immediate factor if the trade is realized soon, but if you need
the time, the Sept options don't expire until August 18. Plenty of time for
the trade to work.
This dip might be a great time for aggressive option traders to consider
selling deferred (July through Dec.) puts on any weakness in corn prices.
I see the selling of these puts as a probable low-risk, high profit-trade.
Soybeans: Are we having fun yet? A sharply lower stock market, worries over
the increased availability of South American beans, plus talk of rain next
week were a triple threat for the beans. Action today was a bit on the wild
side, with beans down about 17 cents at one point. Funds were also sellers
of 1300 contracts or so. The long term forecast still calls for dry
weather, but don't lose sight of the fact that a forecast for more than a
week involves considerable guesswork and has about the same success rate as
your daily astrological forecast. If you think differently, you need to plan
a vacation that demands good weather. For now, precip may recharge the dry
soil up to a point, but it will take more than one or two showers to remove
the threat. Countering that, don't lose sight of the fact that it is very
difficult to stage a successful drought when it's raining. The chart is
sloppy and implies lower prices, but the mid-range close may attract buyers
on dips towards today's low.
Ordinarily I would say the action implies further downside, but with the
market moving on a combination of weather forecasts and aggressive fund
buying and/or selling, it's a bit difficult to say much with any sense of
conviction. The ongoing dry forecasts combined with choppy action imply
that this market is best approached with options. In the absence of rain, we
might see the funds continue to be aggressive buyers.
Today's high, 5474 low 5290, close 5384, change= dn. 8
Resistance: Basis May 546, 554, 582.
Support: Basis May, 541- 538, 531, 525, 520-522, 515, 506, 499, 489, 479,
473, 469, 460, 453.
Recommendation: Most traders should be considering calls. Futures traders
might stand aside for now. Option traders might buy the Sept. 550 calls,
sell the 650 calls for about 20-24 cents difference. Total cost is
$1000-$1200, while the potential gain is $5000. Aggressive option traders
might look to sell July through November puts on further breaks.
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