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The distribution approaches 50-50 not by reversing a trend in H or T, but by
the simple accumulation of observations.
For example, after 100 coin flips, I may have 40 heads and 60 tails, a
40%-60% distribution. After 1000 coin flips, I may have 450 heads and 550
tails, giving me a 45%-55% distribution. Note that even though I continued
to get more tails than heads, the total distribution is still approaching
50%-50%.
If I did flip 40 heads and 60 tails in my first 100 flips, my most likely
outcome after 1000 flips is 490 heads and 510 tails, maintaining the
difference of 20. Also, note that the same 20-flip difference would make
the overall distribution 49%-51%. Again, approaching the 50-50 distribution
without any reversal in trend.
----- Original Message -----
From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 4:42 PM
Subject: Re: Money Management Stops
> If a long string of tails occurs, then the
> central limit theorem would then require that the frequency of heads would
> need to increase. So as you look at the raw data the outcomes {H,T} is
only
> 50 - 50 in the limit. And as one member H or T increases in frequency. The
> other must eventually increase in frequency.
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