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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Adam Hefner
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> April 19, 2000 5:54 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Compare "Data On
Demand"</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I should have made it more clear the Data
On Demand is the faulty data.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Adam
Hefner</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 18, 2000 7:58
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Compare "Data On Demand"</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> You guys better compare your
data!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I should have done this before now, but I was
doing a comparison</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>between the downloaded data from
Reuters (left chart) and the </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>new "Data On Demand" (Right) both are
supposed to be July</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>corn ( 3C from CBT) of the floor
prices. but the DD version is obviously</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>flawed. In fact I could see no difference
between the C, 2C, and </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>3C contract from DD's data. This is simply not
acceptable! </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Reuters shouldn't allow a 3C download if it
isn't correct data!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>Adam
:</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>I didnot receive the charts
but that's not too</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>important : the point you
are making is very serious :</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>I noticed this in the
ReutersDatalink EOD data :</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080
face=Arial><STRONG><EM></EM></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>DD 18/04/00 :
</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080
face=Arial><STRONG><EM></EM></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>TEF : O:72,00 ;
H:72,38 ; L:69.38 C69,94</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>I bought at 9:54:23
TEF at 68 3/4 (Datek).</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>current (close?) price Datek
: 70 1/8</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>According to BigEasy
Investor :</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>TEF : O: $68.44 ; H:$69.94
;L: $67.88 ; C: $69.94</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>Although i -till now-
thought that Reuters was</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>more reliable than Big Easy
i am gone doubt Reuters......</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>Anybody on the list with the
same experience ?</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080
face=Arial><STRONG><EM>TheoL.</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
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<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080
face=Arial><STRONG><EM></EM></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080
face=Arial><STRONG><EM></EM></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080
face=Arial><STRONG><EM></EM></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080
face=Arial><STRONG><EM></EM></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>
</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
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<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Apr 19 07:01:13 2000
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From: "Theo E.M. Lockefeer" <sky40912@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <000501bfa92e$e4317720$54fa0fd2@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: A Round about way for Date Function
Date: Wed, 19 Apr 2000 07:36:22 +0200
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<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>Andrew
:</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>Thx for your Days in Trade :
it's very usefull !</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>I really hope Ton or Steve or
another member can</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>help you
.</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080
face=Arial><STRONG><EM>TheoL.</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
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style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kornberg@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=kornberg@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Kornberg Family</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Metastock
List</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> April 18, 2000 2:09 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> A Round about way for Date
Function</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000>Hi,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=10140112-18042000>Metastock still
does not have a date function. I have a workaround but unfortunately
some of the other Metastock functions eg. HHV cannot use a passed
number.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=10140112-18042000>Here is a Days in
trade plot.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=10140112-18042000>Days in
Trade</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=10140112-18042000>Day1 := Input("Day
of Trade",1,31,4);<BR>Month1 := Input("Month of Trade",1,12,1);<BR>Year1 :=
Input("Year of Trade",1900,2400,2000);</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000>PdsTrade:=BarsSince(DayOfMonth()=Day1 AND Month()=
Month1 AND Year()= Year1);</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000>PdsTrade;</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=10140112-18042000>I would like to be
able to pass the number of days into HHV but it does not allow me to
do this. I want to do the following:</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=10140112-18042000>HHVStop:=
HHV(H,PDSTrade) ;</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=10140112-18042000>Can anyone suggest
a workaround?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000>Thanks,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=10140112-18042000><BR>Andrew</SPAN></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Apr 19 07:01:09 2000
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From: "Theo E.M. Lockefeer" <sky40912@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "Metastock User Group" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Fw: stockpick : QTRN (19/04/2000) part 6.
Date: Wed, 19 Apr 2000 07:51:23 +0200
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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"> </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>List,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>where are we now ? (19/04/2000)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>1) NASDAQ: I think it's very well
possible</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> that we will see a
pull back (or down) day today.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>2) the position : for those who still own
it :</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>down 11% (from 15 15/16).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> <FONT color=#008080
size=3><STRONG><EM>down 10,5%</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM> <FONT
color=#800080>down 7 % </FONT></EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> <FONT color=#800080
size=3><STRONG><EM>if Reuters Data is
reliable......</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> <FONT color=#800080
size=3><STRONG><EM>Stoploss level $13.50.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>System tells we are still in a buy
phase............</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#800080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>We probably had a breakout
yesterday so:</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#800080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>you still can join for a
possible winning trade.</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<HR>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>QTRN : (18/04/2000) $
14.88.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>HOLD-9 is the situation. (Buy still
possible).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>SL : $13.50 (no change).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>Comments :
Welcome.</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>Anyone joined the club
?</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#008080 face=Arial><STRONG><EM>Theo
Lockefeer</EM></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Apr 19 07:01:25 2000
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From: "Guy Tann" <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
Date: Tue, 18 Apr 2000 23:13:49 -0700
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Status:
Larry Williams? I remember him. I went to one of his seminars about 25
years ago and found it interesting.
But back to our methodologies. We have never optimized any of our systems
using any mechanical tools. The technique we used was to develop individual
systems and see whether they worked or not. I'm sure we would have
optimized them if optimizing tools had been available then, but since our
indicators were all developed manually, you could only do so much testing
before your eyeballs dropped from their sockets. :) You have to remember
that I was only recently able to get our indicators working in MS 6.5.2.
since MS didn't support variables. Some of the system still runs under DOS
in Clipper (the Intermediate trend signals which I haven't had time to move
into MS). Since mechanical optimization was not an option coupled with our
feeling that too much backtesting and optimization has never improved any
system, we have developed our own approach.
When developing new indicators (or mini systems or whatever you would like
to call them), is to test them against multiple commodities to see how they
perform. We feel that a system should work with multiple futures. When we
are able to work with multiple commodities, we then add it to our 'mix' and
run more tests. We do this in two ways. We first add it to our current
mix with a weight of 1 and reduce one of our other indicator's weight by 1.
Then we run several more tests playing with the weights, but this is done
manually, not using any optimization tool (trial and error method).
Again, this relates to our feeling that you need to have hands on in order
to discover these relationships. Depending upon the new indicators
sensitivity we may increase it's weight and reduce or delete others. We may
just throw it away and start over. Again, we have developed thousands and
thousands of indicators over the last 50 years and currently use a mixture
of 6. This has been done via trial and error.
The last changes made to our weighting factors was maybe 5 to 10 years ago,
but our indicators have remained the same for the last 15 years. What has
changed are our trading rules, or how we interpret our signals. Our last
change in 1999 added our intermediate buy or sell signal to our SP39 rule
set. The key is that we are constantly evaluating our trading rules to stay
up with a constantly changing market. I maintain several different rule
sets and store results in Excel tables. This way, I constantly monitor
different trading rules to see which one works best. My dad, spends 8 to 10
hours a day working on new indicators which my brother and I then add to our
mix and test.
So far this has worked for us. We operate a completely mechanical system
that is quite successful. We have just added another dimension to our
trading by trading stocks based upon our futures signals. The last S&P
futures trade is about breakeven, thank goodness. Meanwhile the stocks are
up almost 30% in 3 days.
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Michel Amelinckx
Sent: Tuesday, April 18, 2000 8:19 AM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
Your last part is very interesting Guy. Of course having consecutive losses
can always be a sign that your system stops functioning. But if we have a
GOOD system and you tested and back tested it thoroughly over many different
market types and it is NOT OVEROPTIMIZED, shouldn't we believe in our system
and stick with it ? I guess you with all your experience can know. If you
have a GOOD system 70% prof. (tested & backtested well) and it shows 2 or
more consecutive losses (which RARELY HAPPENS on such a system) what is
mostly the outcome of the next trade in real live ? Is it mostly a losing
trade and thus system stops working, means I'm completely wrong and so is
LARRY WILLIAMS. Or is it mostly a winning trade, there is always the
probability that it can be a losing trade but then next trade has higher
probability. Of course to take this to your advantage you need to work with
stops other ways those trades take you out in no time.
Al I was thinking is if you have a good thoroughly backtested system and it
is deviating through a consecutive loss, isn't there a way to take advantage
from in order for the system to come back to its mean ? Kevin don't be
taking old cows out of the river now. I said that the roulette example was
WRONG. I guess you guys never read books from LARRY WILLIAMS, which SUPPOSE
to be a very profitable trader who proved it already many times. Or is he a
gambler as you said because he uses it to its advantage.
Greetings
Mickey
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Guy Tann
> Sent: dinsdag 18 april 2000 3:45
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
>
>
> Kevin
>
> I'm not sure whether I agree with any of the gambling
> analogies when used
> for comparison to trading the markets. My primary reason for
> this is that
> in gambling (roulette and craps are examples) your analogies are 100%
> correct, IMHO. When compared to blackjack, there are some
> variances based
> upon the play of players before and after you that impact the
> deck and the
> play.
>
> When compared to trading the market, I don't think these analogies are
> applicable at all. Again, that's just my opinion.
>
> I'll agree that it's possible to have 1,000 events go against
> you in a row
> and then have 1,000 go for you in a row. However, if in testing this
> system, you ever decided to trade it, you would be broke in
> no time at all.
>
> If on the other hand, you develop a system that is capable of
> 80% profitable
> trades, proper testing would give you some idea as to the
> distribution of
> these losing events.
>
> In our case, even when we develop a new weighting schema, we
> back test the
> system for 6 months, 5 years and 18 years. While we're
> primarily interested
> in the last 3 years, we also need to see how the system would
> have done in
> the real world over a longer period of time. Rather than
> manufacturer a
> random list of numbers going back many years, we just use the actual
> market's performance over that longer period. In our case,
> again, large
> losses are exceedingly rare, thank goodness. Repetitive
> losses are also
> very rare. On average, for the past 15 years, we average no
> more than 6 or
> 7 losses a year while still maintaining our minimum
> profitability ratio of
> over 70%.
>
> If in back testing, we ever encounter repetitive losses of
> the type you
> describe, even while still maintaining good profitability, we
> would never,
> ever trade it. In all of our back testing, we take
> repetitive losses into
> consideration as well as the system's profitability. A
> system that wipes
> you out without giving you the opportunity to make a "come
> back" is hardly a
> system.
>
> Regards,
>
> Guy
> Fax (630) 604-1589
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> Behalf Of Kevin243@xxxxxxx
> Sent: Monday, April 17, 2000 4:53 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Money Management Stops
>
> The answer is no.
>
> It is completely possible to have a 1000 events go against
> you in a row and
> then have another 1000 go for you in a row.
>
> The point is that you could be wiped out before the reversion
> back to the
> mean.
>
> What you are describing is like doubling your bet each time you lose
> figuring
> eventually, you will win. Not true. You will eventually
> find a streak that
> breaks your bank first. Play long enough, and you will
> eventually lose
> everything. The house is counting out that. The house has a positive
> expectancy, you the gambler does not.
>
> Kevin Campbell
>
> In a message dated 4/17/00 7:43:39 AM Central Daylight Time,
> Michel.Amelinckx@xxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> > Thanks for helping me out here. I guess my explanation was not very
> > understandable. And the example of the roulette table was
> even worse
> > actually it was WRONG because of course you still have the
> 0, so this was
> > WRONG.
> > What I just tried to say, like described here below is if
> you have a
> system
> > with 70% prob. (of course these statistics are as good as
> you test them)
> and
> > your system shows 4 or more LOSES IN A ROW. And because of
> this it is
> > deviating from your mean and thus the prob. of the next trade being
> correct
> > is higher. (There is of course a change that your system
> stops working at
> > that point)
> > Is this incorrect ?
> >
> > Greetings
> >
> > Mickey
> > B
> >
>
>
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