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Hi Adam
No problem.
I guess corn gave us an answer about direction yesterday. Lots of rain
happens and K & N only go down a penny. So much for a "weather" market ...
there's some really stubborn longs out there ... only 1400 contracts were
liquidated.
Technical Analysis alone is NOT enough. The grain complex is really a very
thin market compared to most of the stocks that Metastockers look at/scan.
Compare the open interest for corn with the average float of regularly
traded stocks. Secondly, most of the players know grains and every aspect of
why things move.
Here's an example of historical seasonals that you can "crank up" in Excel
http://www.cs-grainmarketconsulting.com/
Re Al's advice ... I think that you were wiser in first place to be
indecisive and hesitant until you know more. There are safer and more risk
controlled ways to test out your market analysis and technical analysis. Use
options or use spreads. There's more to learn using those approaches but at
least you approach the markets as a business rather than as a source of
excitement or as "after diner conversation".
You're too good of an analyst and too patient and persistent in your system
development to use a "hold your nose and jump" trading approach.
Leave the naked contracts to newbies or "wannabe gurus". Sticking your neck
out can get it chopped.
Best regards as always
Walter
----- Original Message -----
From: "Adam Hefner" <vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 9:55 PM
Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
| Walter,
| I really appreciate your warnings of "Big Boys" buying corn
| when I am selling. First let me explain to the list of where I am and
| why I am posting these charts. EVERYONE PLEASE READ THIS!
| These signals are just me testing a trading method...I am NOT a pro
| trader. My signals can be (and probably are) wrong. I am learning
| the mechanics of trade and simulating as real as possible the risk of
| being wrong by making these decisions public (keeps me honest).
| When Al Taglavore was kind enough to offer a bit of advice on
| my hesitation to make trade decisions, I decided to "Stick My Neck"
| out with a signal, it turned out to be a failed signal, but I recovered
| from it with little loss (this time). Perhaps I need to incorporate the
| COT reports into my method....but for now I want to smooth out
| the mechanical techniques of my basic system before I add or adjust
| to it. Actually this basic system will let me know quickly if a signal is
| right or wrong, I am just perfecting the methods of damage control,
| after all its easy to trade if things go as planned. <g>
|
| Adam
|
|
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
| To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 9:35 AM
| Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
|
|
| > Hi Adam and Steve
| >
| > So what's going to move the market down?
| >
| > weather? -
| > demand? -
| > supply? -
| >
| > If liquidation starts, you've got 93,000+ longs that are going to need
to
| be
| > "flushed".
| >
| > So why are the funds sitting with such a huge long position? Why are
they
| > still buying ... 4,000 yesterday?
| >
| > Best regards
| >
| > Walter
| >
| > ----- Original Message -----
| > From: Adam Hefner
| > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 12:38 AM
| > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
| >
| >
| > Steve,
| > I Sell at a close above 237.75 (I think that is what you mean)
| > really plays along with the rules of the current
| > market condition (congestion). I would have normally called a signal
along
| > these lines, but was torn between this
| > congestion action trading and the break-out signal on the 17th. Always
| enjoy
| > your market signals.
| >
| > Adam
| >
| > ----- Original Message -----
| > From: Steve Karnish
| > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 8:27 PM
| > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
| >
| >
| > Adam,
| >
| > Although all the "troops" are in May, I would be a seller of July on a
| close
| > above 287.75. Also, take a hard look at the wheat/corn spread (basis
| July)
| > under 30 cents. It has a bunch of potential. I put a bunch on at 27.25
| > today. Could be a big "wiener".
| >
| > Take care,
| >
| > Steve Karnish
| > Cedar Creek Trading
| > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
| >
| >
| > ----- Original Message -----
| > From: Adam Hefner
| > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 3:34 PM
| > Subject: (Market) Jul Corn
| >
| >
| >
| > Since corn has reversed back up and remaining in the congestion area I
| will
| > exit the corn sell signal tomorrow with a MIT
| > at 235.1 (provided that is hit before my buy stop at 239.5). Not sure
this
| > is the best way to handle it but if my MIT is hit
| > I will take a little .05 cent loss, if my stop is hit..a 5 cent loss.
| > Comments anyone?
| > Adam
| >
| >
|
|