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<DIV><FONT size=2>> 3) Then there is the euro currency. Since 1st Jan 1999
the Euro zone and its<BR>> member's currency has devalued by over 20 %
against not only the pound, but<BR>> the dollar, and has also devalued
against the Cuban peso, and the north<BR>> Korean won. In real terms your
savings are worth 20% less than before the<BR>> euro was brought in.
This currency effect has also distorted your chart,<BR>> which looks very
different when expressed in a stable currency.<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Below is a mirrored representation of 2 historicaly
fluctuating but further stable currencies, the €uro and the
US$.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Pic1 shows the YOY LongTerm Downtrend of the
one(US$).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Pic2 shows the YOY rise and the current correction (turning
crash) of the other one(€uro), a currency that is still</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
technicaly </FONT><FONT size=2>in a LongTerm Uptrend.</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Crashes have occured in (Large) 1929,1987,1998 and
(Smaller) in 1936-45(2nd WorldWar) and 1970ees(OIL+Houses)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>and in 1990ees(GulfWar), and see where we are now.
</FONT><FONT size=2>Only the DowINDU alone was valued 2800 back in
1987,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>compared to its current ATH 11.750. That's an increase of 8950
(+320%).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Currencies, being GOV owned <and important here: GOV
manipulated> will not let themselves compare to
stocks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This is true, since that GOVs are not "publicly traded
<with profit rises for target> entities".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>GOVs can introduce as many notes they wish(former the US), eg
live on CREDIT, and still not go bankrupt.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Unlike stocks, </FONT><FONT size=2>GOVs can too </FONT><FONT
size=2>introduce as many notes they like, and still not have to account a true
value for these notes,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>eg GOVs are at free liberty to produce as many notes as that
they seem fit(Russia, YugoSlavia, LatinAm,Africa&Asia)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>without publicy accounting for </FONT><FONT size=2>a single
note's true value.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This divergence between the two entities(stocks&notes)
thus makes comparissons unusefull, and for result from this</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>divergence, the currencies traded are in the hands of
speculators, eg and therefore traded on the futures markets(where</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>other regulations &accounting rules are enforced to
receive any listing licences).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>After the above, and looking at the Charts, one can describe
these currency "futures" as Oscillators, eg indicators that</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>will float & drift around a centered value, 1:1 (one on
one, one for one).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Where the US$ made an historical Peak back in 1985, the €uro
made a Peak in 1995. Both have returned to the 1:1</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>(one for one) level back in 1989 and recently in
1999.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The €uro now is correcting its former 10year UpTrend
rise(1985-1995).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>As mentioned in previous mail, the odds at the moment are
strongly against this €uro </FONT><FONT size=2>currency, since that this
currency</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>not only at the moment comprises the former
unstable-now-members currencies(Franc,Lire,Peseta,Peso) but are
soon(2002-2004)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>joined with more unstable
currencies(BritPound,SweKrona,GreDrachme). The future thereafter(2005+) even
worsens, since</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>that some of the former Eastern European currencies, that will
have passed the human democracy + countries' liberations</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>qualifying </FONT><FONT size=2>tests, will be able to join
too. This all naturaly causes a large level of uncertainties, not risks for the
€uro, but</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>indeed the large amount of fundamental
doubts.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Around 1995, the US$ has bottomed out(Pic1).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Around 2005 the €-currency should then bottom
out(Pic2).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>With for both a further continuaton of their "oscillating
around the 1:1 level" future ahead of them, and </FONT><FONT
size=2>done within these</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>oscillators' Trading Bands, as can be seen on both Pic1 and
Pic2.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Quantified, then the "1:1 ranges(the bands)"
are:</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>US$ vs
€uro
and
€uro vs US$</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>------------------
------------------</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>€ 1.75 - €
0.70
U$ 1.45 -
0.55 </DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The fact that the band for the €uro vs US$ is also the
smallest, shows directly for the €uro its internal stable strength,
eg</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>currency </FONT><FONT size=2>is much less
volatile.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This possitive divergence, no doubt, is due to the former
Bundesbank's very succesfull "Keep it a Hard Solid
currency"-policy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>a policy it has mastered and ruled succesfully for the former
DM, a converted hard currency that's now being roughly</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>the 50% representation value in</FONT><FONT size=2> the
current €uro.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This succesfully maintained Stable Prices-policy
(Hard&Solid), is adopted by the ECC's Commision </FONT><FONT size=2>stated
and enforced</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>ankered in the ECC's foundation(statutes) and is
also stated and enforced ankered in EuroBank's </FONT><FONT
size=2>foundation(statutes).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Meaning that the Bundesbank lives on (= only renamed)
in(to) the European Bank.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Target for the moment are:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- the former breakouts € 1.132 (ST) and € 1.30 (IMT
and stacking the lower TradingRange), and</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>
for 2005(LT) a target € 1.45, stacking again and it being also slightly
past the outer falling</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>
top Resitance line and also being that 3td BreakOut {€
1.45-but not labeled in the Chart} just</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>
above </FONT><FONT size=2>that 2nd BreakOut @ € 1.30. </DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- the falling grey-Support line U$ 0.90(ST) and the 2/3tds
67%-retracement @ U$ 0.86 (IMT), and</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>
for 2005(LT or even earlier) the Reversed Flag-patterns fallout Target
U$ 0.669.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Regards,<BR>Ton Maas<BR></FONT><A
href="mailto:ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";><FONT
size=2>ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</FONT></A><BR><FONT size=2>Dismiss the ".nospam"
bit (including the dot) when replying.<BR>Homepage </FONT><A
href="http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas";><FONT
size=2>http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas</DIV></FONT></A>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
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Pic1____|</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT
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</FONT><FONT
size=2> Pic2 ____ </DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT
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