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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Now that I have my basic direction determined from
the monthly,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>lets analyze the daily bars: I was noticing over
the week-end that</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the daily bars had retrace to the 61.8% line and
entered into congestion.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This congestion suggest a possible reverse from the
up move since mid </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>April. Monday's close below the lower confines of
congestion (around 1458)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>further strengthens my monthly analysis of downward
movement. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> Well..now that I have an analysis...how to
trade? Well It looks like a good </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>sell level would be at 1464. with the protection
stop around 1495. The</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>calculated risk on the protection is 31 points and
the calculated projected</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>low is around 1350 (100 points). Of course analysis
can be wrong, in several</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>ways. My entry point could be missed and I may not
get into the market, or </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the market may reverse tomorrow and blow-up my
sell.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regardless..this is NOT a recommendation, only an
exercise for you to critique.</FONT></DIV>
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