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Kent
I have no idea when we'll we going long, but our system has been pretty good
at predicting inflection points (major turns). We'll just hold on for a
while.
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Kent Rollins
Sent: Sunday, May 07, 2000 1:34 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Lessons Learned From Market Downturn
Good for you for following your own system. When you have an good system
like yours, the good trades can go to your head and make you try to out
trade it. I'm a little concerned about this week because it is the one
month anniversary of last month's bottom. And then there's that little
meeting going on in Washington. People are still scared (the VIX is high)
and there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. If we do see a
sell-off, I'm going to get right back in ASAP. I'm betting you're long by
Wednesday.
Kent
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, May 07, 2000 2:35 AM
Subject: RE: Lessons Learned From Market Downturn
Kent
My brother, who is more active than I am, closed out his short futures and
500 of his QQQ on or near the open on Friday because the market didn't look
weak enough, than reinstated his shorts later in the day. I, OTOH, am still
short, blindly following our system. I was at a 4th grade parent teacher's
conference at my little guy's prep school, finding out all of his failings
and weak points. Oh well, maybe he'll inherit some money and not have to
rely on his education. Of course, my better half thinks he's going to be
the Pope. I, OTOH, tell her he's going to be a retailer on Melrose Ave.
(one of our trendy streets). He seems too interested in money. Last
summer, he and his 9 year old buddy next door made $1,000 selling Pokemon
cards on eBay. That sort of lit his fuse. Now he wants to move his money
into a trading account at Schwab and start trading. :)
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Kent Rollins
Sent: Thursday, May 04, 2000 1:17 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Lessons Learned From Market Downturn
I know! I've been checking email all day for the last week looking for your
buy signal. I figured we had a bottom after that huge Friday selloff that
didn't follow thru on Monday or Tuesday. I've been long hard the momo's
(PMCS, AMCC, FDRY, EMC, RFMD, INSP, ARBA, and a biotech here and there)
since then. I'm doing fairly well, but I would much rather you be trading
in my direction. The day the ECI came out bad and we traded up was a real
sign to me that the market had gotten out of it's funk and was trying to get
it's legs back. Unfortunately we are entering the summer doldrums period so
I don't expect another mania like we've had for the past 6 months, but I am
looking for some strong rallies in the biotechs, larger B2B's, and the
wireless semiconductor arena into the fall.
This market is kind of funny. They've been blowing off Greenspan for a year
now. He's been like a parent saying "Your face is going to stick like
that." and one day the market woke up and it's face was stuck like that and
everyone is freaking out. Hopefully, this next rate hike will get everyone
back to business as usual. My stops are in place in case I'm wrong.
They've been hit before, they'll get hit again but hopefully not until this
fall.
Kent
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, May 04, 2000 3:12 PM
Subject: RE: Lessons Learned From Market Downturn
We do have a mechanical system, Kent, and it hasn't given us the signal to
buy back in yet. We're still waiting. Unfortunately we got in a day early
on the short side, but are now doing quite well with the trade.
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Kent Rollins
Sent: Thursday, May 04, 2000 10:39 AM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Lessons Learned From Market Downturn
"Yes, the markets really tanked. I'm just fortunate I followed my trusted
rule of **always** selling when the _____price of the stock_____ indicator
went below
_____stop that I entered when I bought the stock_____ level."
"Frankly, I don't plan on re-entering those particular securities until the
_____lump in my throat_____ indicator drops below _____knot in my
stomach_____ again!"
You can't trade the markets mechanically like you're asking unless you have
a system that is a winner and if you had such a system, it would have told
you when to sell and when to buy back in. Frankly, I think the bulk of the
selling is done. If you listen to CNBC, you will hear that many fund
managers are totally confused on the markets or have large cash positions.
This is a good sign. In addition, cash is still coming into the markets in
the form of savings. This means continued upward pressure. But probably
not like it was during the last 6 months. I'm currently 115% long. Of
course, historically that is a bad sign.
Kent
-----Original Message-----
From: Nicholas Kormanik <nkormanik@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, May 04, 2000 1:16 PM
Subject: Lessons Learned From Market Downturn
It's likely that over the past couple of months many here have had some
important lessons reinforced.
I'm hoping that some of you 'senior' members wouldn't mind filling in the
following blank lines....
"Yes, the markets really tanked. I'm just fortunate I followed my trusted
rule of **always** selling when the _____A_____ indicator went below
_____B_____ level."
"Frankly, I don't plan on re-entering those particular securities until the
_____C_____ indicator rises above _____D_____ again!"
Thanks in advance for sharing your ideas. I hope some interesting and
helpful discussion is generated from your input.
I personally am still a 'freshman,' and continue to look for these answers.
Nicholas
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