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Scheier
I grew up trading futures and have been doing it for over 45 years, so I'm
more comfortable there. I've never traded equities, other than on a few
occasions and have never been very successful. Since I started trading
equities in late February and early March, my system managed to pick the
exact wrong direction for the first day of the three biggest moves in NASDAQ
history. If that doesn't give you a complex (hence my remarks about
paranoia below), I don't know what will. :)
I have to admit that I am still down about $19k since I started trading
equities, but that's my own fault. On my first trade, the bottom fell out
and I was down a ton. I closed half of my positions for a large loss. Now
if I just had the confidence of my system (I didn't touch the futures, for
instance) the trade made money. I weathered the last two and am currently
working on this one. So far, I'm currently down about $19k in total. I
look at that as being a lesson in following your system and not getting
emotionally involved. I'm able to do this with futures and I have to learn
how to do it with equities. I started yesterday, by just turning off all
tickers and TV and getting away from it.
Guy
Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of scheier
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2000 9:17 AM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: futures vs equities /was Re: Going Long
Guy, found it interesting that you find it less stressful to trade futures
than
equities. You realize that this is the opposite for most people. Is it
the
capital commitment that's different, or is there some difference to your
risk
management that makes you feel more vulnerable when positioned in equities?
Scheier
Guy Tann wrote:
> Scheier
>
> Good points. With the market collapsing today and my brother in a plane
> flying down for a meeting regarding our web site, I turned off the TV,
never
> even fired up the computer and went to the mall and bought myself that new
> KitchenAid Mixer.
>
> We never know which direction the market is going to take. Like you said,
> we don't care. We're traders, period. Up, down, sideways, upside down,
> doesn't matter. As long as we have movement we're happy. We strictly
trade
> probabilities. We know, based upon the last fifteen years or so, that our
> system is right at least 70% of the time, and for the last few years at
> least 80% of the time. Our trading is built around those probabilities.
> When we make a trade, we never know whether we'll be in that trade one day
> or a month. We really don't care. As long as we maintain that 70-80%
> probability of success, we'll make money.
>
> Now, when we're early or wrong, it does get painful, but since we don't
draw
> any money out for expenses, it doesn't hurt as much. We did make an error
> entering our equity positions for this trade. We should have been going
> long the other half of our equities tomorrow morning. We still feel
pretty
> good about the trade. I think the market has factored in the Fed's
interest
> rate increase already and we're do for a bounce.
>
> Now our system is comprised of two major components. One is a home grown
> momentum signal which we couple with an overbought/oversold indicator. It
> appears to work quite well. Let's see what happens with this trade. It's
> possible that this is the one that brings our average down to 75%. :)
>
> Guy
>
> Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> Behalf Of scheier
> Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 3:39 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Going Long
>
> I had to laugh at your sarcasm and your point is well made. But I think
> Jean
> Jacques' original question is actually a fair one, just poorly worded.
If
> he
> had said, "Why are you buying in a downtrend" instead of using that
> debatable
> term `Bear Market', his point would have perhaps been better made.
>
> And I think the question is a good one, and fair game for any of us who
> stick
> our necks out with possible trades. For with the series of trend
> continuation
> patterns we have had in the Nasdaq off the recent high--first, the 3 day
> Gann
> Pullback, and then the A-B-C correction--the opportunities for selling
short
> and
> going with the trend have far outweighed the chances of picking the right
> stock
> to buck this--yes, let's call a spade a spade--Bear Market.
>
> As for absolutely positively knowing ANYTHING before taking a trade, that
> is, of
> course, absurdly impossible and would prevent us from ever being able to
> even
> pick up the phone to place a trade. But I'll go farther, you don't have
to
> assume you know which way the market is going before you position yourself
> with
> an order. In fact, most of the mistakes traders make come from the
> assumption
> that, in fact, they know which way the market is going when they take a
> position.
>
> Then how does one trade without such a trend opinion? You simply
identify
> behavior patterns, and position yourself around them with stops. If they
> trigger, go with the movement. If they do not, shrug your shoulders and
look
> for
> the next set up. The best traders I have ever met in the market place
> always
> have this attitude: I don't care which way it goes, and I don't need to
know
> ahead of time.
>
> When I finally arrived at a trading method that could incorporate this
> attitude,
> a HUGE weight was taken from my shoulders. Stress disappeared. And now
I
> often come back to the office in the morning not even remembering whether
I
> had
> taken a short position or a long one in a particular market from the
> previous
> day--that's how little I now think about my positions at night. If
you're
> having trouble putting the markets away at night and forgetting about your
> trading; if you find yourself fantasizing at night about how your trades
are
> going to come out and where your profits will be should your daydreams
come
> true; or if you find yourself worrying at night about your positions and
> find
> you don't sleep well because of them, then you probably took the trades
> based on
> the assumption that you knew which way the market was going to go, instead
> of
> letting the market take you with it at key points around a behavior
pattern.
>
> Just some food for thought....
>
> Scheier
>
> Kent Rollins wrote:
>
> > Since you're new to the list, maybe you'd like to tell us how you know
> > absolutely, positively, beyond any shadow of a doubt that we're in a
bear
> > market. While you're at it, how long will it last? Also, will the
small
> > caps, banks, foods, and drugs that have been in a bear market for the
last
> > year or so (2 years in the case of small caps) participate in this bear
> > market? If oil prices stay high, will the oil stocks turn down also or
> will
> > they remain bullish? Where will the market be when the bear market
ends?
> > What about wheat and sugar?
> >
> > Kent
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Macromnt@xxxxxxx <Macromnt@xxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 1:02 PM
> > Subject: Re: Going Long
> >
> > I am new to this list but I wander what makes someone go long in a bear
> > market. Is it an attempt to catch the bottom (it's always a risky
attempt)
> ?
> >
> > Jean Jacques Chenier
> > Global Management
> > www.trendoscil.com
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