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I think Mark was just trying to provide a warning for those who might not be
aware that one might be needed. I'm not saying one is needed *in this
case*, I take Guy at his word. I've been following him for about a year now
and I've seen him go thru learning money management and repeatedly admit
that he's busted his trading account many times. I feel that Guy has been
very consistent in the time that I've been reading his posts and take him
for who he says he is. Guy, if you are chumming the waters, my hat is off
to you because it has been a masterfully convincing job over the months. :)
I am assuming that this list is like the Omega list in that it is like and
iceberg: 90% of the people on the list lurk and never post. JimO who runs
the Omega list says there are over 1000 people subscribed and there are only
about 20-30 people who post regularly. The others are the masses of people
who blow out their accounts in a few months' time. They come and go and no
one ever knows they were here. And in an industry where every single player
HAS TO HAVE a large, liquid, easily accessible pile of cash. If you have a
$100,000 account, that is considered small in the trading business. Think
about that. $100,000 is not a lot of trading capital. If you say to the
average Joe on the street, "My trading account is ONLY $100K.", they would
look at you like you were nuts. Say that to a fellow trader and they'll say
"Yeah, I know what you mean."
In the Gold Rush in the the 1800's, it was the people who sold the "picks
and shovels" who made the easy money with no risk. Some of them were honest
pick and shovel vendors, some weren't. Here, the pick and shovel vendors
are the Equis', Omega's, Motley Fools', Quote.com's, and "trading signal"
vendors. I pay about $550 a month for 2 realtime datafeeds. The only bill
I pay that is more than that is on my mortgage. I paid Omega $200 a month
for a year to buy their software. If you're a scammer out there looking to
skim a few bucks with a bogus con, there are hundreds of new people trading
each month, replacing the hundreds who blew out last month, and the fresh
meat hasn't learned that there isn't a holy grail. If you can show them The
Way, they will gladly pay you $50 a month until they blow out or figure out
you're a scammer or get disgusted with your lousy advice. I fell for the
Omega commercials: "All you need is a trading signal."
Mark's warning was harsh. But it got attention. If you knew that you
shouldn't believe that Guy can make you 50% a year, then you've been around
long enough to know the way things work. There are a lot of people who
haven't been around that long and won't be around long enough to learn that
lesson. And I believe they are the ones who Mark intended the message for.
I have been on the Omega list for almost 2 years now and I have come to
respect Mark's opinions. He claims to have been in the business for over 20
years and I take him, like I take Guy, at his word. I have seen Mark take
on seemingly the whole Omega list at times, and I have seen some extremely
kind and generous things said about him. Some of Mark's posts concern some
of those esoteric things that only veterans in an industry ever realize,
much less verbalize. The warning was on one of the more concrete things in
trading.
When people on this list complain that Guy and Jim talk about too much
personal stuff, you know the 2 of them are comfortable on this list. I'm
comfortable on this list, also. And I think it is in that spirit of comfort
that Guy discusses potential returns of his system. Guy also comfortably
discusses the fact that he might start a website where people could
subscribe and get the signals from his system. The fresh meat, the ones who
never post and won't be here much longer might take those 2 pieces of
information and stumble across a website like the one I recently got spammed
for and say "Well, here's another Guy Tann. I have a $100,000 futures
account and he can make me 50% a year and he only wants $250 a month and I
will only have to place trades based on EOD data so I can drop my 2 realtime
datafeeds and save $300 a month." A few months later, they have a $5,000
futures account. That story is being played out by hundreds of people
across the country right now and they don't even know it. Some of them
won't even know it after they've gotten the margin call.
Guy, if you're the kind of guy I think you are, you don't want to mislead
people. You've said that you want to start a website for subscribers. If
you do, you will have to post certain disclaimers. Why not start now? It
could be as simple as inserting something like "unaudited" everytime you
quote your system's accuracy or you could write up a simple disclaimer for
your sig. Are you legally obligated? Maybe not. Morally?
And since I took the time to write all this crap, I'm going to ask the
question that everyone should ask when they flip thru the ads in Futures mag
or click their way thru cyberspace: why would you, Guy, take a good system
like yours, now that you have the money management down, and a sizeable
trading account, and go thru the hassle of setting up a website and dealing
with subscribers who you will either have to charge a good chunk of change
per subscriber (in which case they will expect more attention) or have to
have a lot subscribers (in which case there will be the a large number of
people who shouldn't be trading in the first place and they will do it
incorrectly and some of them will call you with threats that you would be
concerned about, I've seen it happen)?
Kent
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