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Guy, I want to thank you ONCE AGAIN for your great insight.
>From what I understand, you don't optimise. But you do play with giving
different weightings to the different indicators that you created, right ?
Like a binary wave.
Greetings, master and THANKS :)
Mickey
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Guy Tann
> Sent: zaterdag 3 juni 2000 8:05
> To: Metastock User Group
> Subject: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
>
>
> List et al,
>
> Well that was one heck of a ride! We closed everything out
> an hour or so
> before the close and are in cash (equities and futures).
>
> As I said, we were waiting for the proper "contrary" and we are now in
> possession of a real sell signal.
>
> I'm not sure what we'll be selling short on Monday. We will
> be shorting our
> S&P futures naturally. But we'll need to do some calculations
> to determine
> how many to short in keeping with our money management
> philosophy. I'm not
> sure if we'll be shorting stocks or just buying some OEX Put
> options and/or
> our normal QQQ, DIA and SPY indices. I don't think we'll be
> quite as heavy
> on the short side.
>
> The problem being a contrarian is we trade opposite everybody
> else and we
> have to dance with the lady that brung us. That means, we trade all
> signals, no matter how nervous we feel. We know we are only
> going to be
> right 4 out of every 5 trades, on average, and we never know
> if the next one
> is IT.
>
> Now the following is to encourage those of you who have
> fairly good signals
> (like buys and/or sell signals) to make sure you take a good
> look at the
> ValueLine 1-1 stocks that we've been trading. Here are the
> actual results
> with my brother's granddaughter's account being an absolutely
> great example
> since he can't do futures in it or sell short.
>
> [OFF TOPIC] [NOT MEANT FOR BUSINESS, TROLLING or WHATEVER] MY
> DISCLAIMER!
>
> As an aside, I have some trade summary data to report.
> Before I do, I'd
> like to state officially that we're NOT looking to sell
> anything, we have NO
> web site, no newsletter, and are not registered CTAs. Even
> if we proceed
> with a newsletter sometime in the future, that's months away
> and our system
> might turn to crap by then, so everybody should consider himself (or
> herself, to be PC) warned. We're just private traders. Now that I've
> reiterated the disclaimer, a little stronger, here are some
> of our UNAUDITED
> results.
>
> First, my brother started trading equities, in addition to
> futures last
> June. We now have a complete 12 months of data in his
> accounts. He was
> profitable 11 out of the 12 months. Even with a couple of our famous
> screw-ups (like that big loss last November) he finished the
> year up 100%
> (he made a 100% return on capital). I don't want to give the numbers
> because that's his business, but we're talking mid six
> figures. Of course,
> the account is sort of back at it's original size because he
> had to pay
> Uncle Sam his due and he bought a lot for his retirement home
> and another
> country club membership to go with that new lot. Still, all in all a
> successful year.
>
> Second, on a lighter note, he opened up a Crumy Trust (I
> think that's a
> college trust and I'm not sure how you spell it) for his
> granddaughter on
> November 15,1999. He funded it with $10,000. Now, he is not
> allowed to go
> short in this account, so he's limited to only trading our
> buy signals. He
> closed out her positions today and put her in cash (money market fund
> actually). Her account balance, as of the close of trading today, is
> $24,231.84. Again, this is unaudited, but since we're not
> trying to sell
> anybody anything, too bad. His trading technique for Lucy's
> account is as
> follows. When we get a buy signal, he mentally goes down the
> list of the
> top 10 to 15 stocks we plan on trading in our own accounts (from the
> ValueLine 1-1 selection process I laid out earlier). He
> selects the top 3
> or 4 and buys these. I think she held LSI, AMD and one other
> one. Not too
> bad for a young lady who just turned 1. :) His target is $40,000 by
> November. I only wish him well, because that means I'll be
> on the same
> merry-go-round.
>
> On a final note, he opened up a $5,000 account for our sister also on
> November 15, 1999. Now she's always been the free spirit in
> the family and
> just started to mature in her mid 50s. She loved the
> Grateful Dead, has a
> couple of giant dogs (Newfoundland or however you spell those
> monsters) a
> new yellow VW Beatle and a new house that I'm sure her cats
> and dogs have
> already trashed. She lived through the 60s and 70s and can't
> remember much,
> if anything of it. :) I on the other hand already had two
> kids in the 60s
> so I wasn't able to not remember anything until after the
> divorce in the
> 70s. Anyway, enough reminiscing, her account balance, as of
> the close of
> trading today is approximately $10,000 (I didn't ask my
> brother for the
> exact number and he might have lied to me anyway :)).
>
> I guess what I'm trying to say, is that working with the ValueLine
> recommendations has a limited track record with us and has
> come through with
> flying colors, and has even compensated for those times we screwed up.
>
> [The RANTINGS of an OLD F**T]
>
> Happy trading to all. I'm in a great mood after this week,
> so I thought I'd
> share some additional thoughts with the list and try to
> encourage everyone
> to keep working to find that Holy Grail. A little proviso is
> to try to
> experiment with various, different approaches and not use
> anybody's tools.
> Develop your own. It's hard but can be done. As I've said
> several times,
> the only indicator we use in MetaStock that came with the
> software is the
> moving average. We use it on our own indicators or within our own
> indicators. Everything else in the 14 levels of calculations
> uses addition,
> subtraction, division and multiplication and that's it. You
> don't need to
> be a genius. You do need to develop a "feel" for numbers and
> the market.
> We don't use anything else! Nothing fancy. No advanced
> math, even though
> all of us have degrees in things like statistical economics,
> engineering
> math, math and statistics, etc. There's no easy way to do
> this. You need
> to spend the time and effort and grind it out. I firmly
> believe that the
> first year or two should be done without a computer, but
> that's my opinion
> and I've been working with computers for over 40 years now,
> and that you
> should paper trade a system at first. Secondly, don't use
> optimization
> tools. It either works or it doesn't and it works with
> numbers that make
> sense, not two out of a basket of 300,000. We don't
> optimize! We tried it
> and found that it cost us too much money. It's highly
> overrated, in our
> opinion, but we did spend a couple of years playing with
> MetaStock doing it.
> We do back test any new indicators we develop. We're firm
> believers in back
> testing, however we feel the more recent results are more
> important that how
> the indicator worked 5 years ago. Took us a while to understand that
> because of the dynamics of the market, you need to constantly
> monitor your
> indicators, etc. Actually, we constantly monitor our trading
> rules, but
> that's another rant.
>
> I hope everyone has a great weekend.
>
> Guy
>
> Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
>
>
>
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