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Bob,
Send me a C-note and I'll write the instuctions on the back of a paperbag.
Tentative:
Santa Clara Marriot Hotel
2700 Mission College Blvd.
Santa Clara, DA 95054
June 25th...10 to 1
I'll give you the sign up requirements next week or "just show up".
Steve
----- Original Message -----
From: Bob Jagow <bjagow@xxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, June 06, 2000 2:00 PM
Subject: RE: "Born to laugh at tornadoes"
> I'm considering the 6/25 SF one -- how would I sign up?
>
> Bob
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Tuesday, June 06, 2000 11:46 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: "Born to laugh at tornadoes"
>
>
> R.I.,
>
> I guess you won't be buying a plane ticket to the Equis free seminars?
I'll
> be sharing my equity approaches with the attendees. Unlike my website,
> which is going through a large makeover,
> the seminar will teach folks to use an oscillator to get in and
"out"...what
> a novel concept. Attached is a chart of AMAT using a simple StoRSI that
> triggers trades the day after (on the opening) when the indicator hits 20
or
> 80 (very different than my FREE stock buys posted at my site). 80% of the
> Naz components have posted profits since January 1, 1999 using this
> approach.
>
> Since this will be publicly disseminated, to strangers at seminars, I will
> also supply "selected" individuals (on the MetaStock forum) with the
StoRSI
> formula and the rules to trade it with. If anyone is interested, you need
> to send your request to: cct@xxxxxxxxxxxx (with twenty five words or less
> describing "Why I deserve your indicator and rules and what I'm willing to
> share in return"). I will not answer publicly posted request and I will
not
> send the formula out to "wieners" (you know who you are...so, don't even
go
> there).
>
> Swirling with Toto,
>
> Steve Karnish
> Cedar Creek Trading
> http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: rosewood_island <rosewood_island@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, June 06, 2000 8:14 AM
> Subject: Re: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
>
>
> > Steve,
> > If you'd like to see another largest down day, just check
> > your 5-star buy system.
> >
> > Last time you posted a bunch of 5-star buys on this thread.
> > AMAT,QQQ,NXLK,MSFT,RFMD,SUNW,IMNX.
> >
> > Within 3 days, we got an Nasdaq 258-point drop, then
> > consecutive 5-day drop. Eventually we got a 355-point
> > drop.
> >
> > I think the government should name you the director of
> > Hurricane Center at National Weather Service. Your model
> > really works for forecasting unusual events.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > R.I.
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 5:22 PM
> > Subject: Re: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
> >
> >
> > > Guy,
> > >
> > > I will be conducting four, three hour seminars for Equis during the
last
> > two
> > > weeks in June. Unless something changes, I'll be in Seattle on the
> 17th,
> > > Vancouver on the 18th, San Jose on the 24th and the City on the 25th.
> > Equis
> > > is doing LaLa on the 24th and Orange County on the 25th, but they will
> be
> > > conducted by Bob Frassanito. Bob's a good dude (ex
> > IBMer...retired...living
> > > in New Mexico). Besides the IBM conection with you, he knows Johnny B
> and
> > > Bollinger even spoke at his users group (nice trick!). Stop by and
see
> > him.
> > > This should be big fun. I assume 99% of the audience will be equity
> > > traders, so I'll be breaking down the Nasdaq 100 and each of it's
> > > components, for the last eighteen months, and showing how traders can
> use
> > a
> > > simple oscillator to extract a few pesos from these issues. I
actually
> > > wanted to hand pick my schedule: InSane Diego, New Porsche Beach,
> Denver
> > &
> > > Dallas... oh well, we'll see how this round goes ... maybe in the
fall.
> > >
> > > Wishing for the largest single "downday" ever (until I go long),
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > Cedar Creek Trading
> > > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 12:39 PM
> > > Subject: RE: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
> > >
> > >
> > > > Steve
> > > >
> > > > Good luck with your trade. As you know, I hate it when we're in
> > agreement
> > > > on the same day. Something bad usually happens. :)
> > > >
> > > > If this is your first short since 3/24, we do a lot more trading
than
> > you
> > > > do. You need a system like our's if you want to make it as a
broker.
> > > Churn
> > > > those accounts. :)
> > > >
> > > > BTW, is your trip set yet?
> > > >
> > > > Guy
> > > >
> > > > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > > > Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> > > > Sent: Sunday, June 04, 2000 9:51 PM
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
> > > >
> > > > Guy and list,
> > > >
> > > > Monday morning we are liquidating the long positions that we have
had
> > > since
> > > > 4/14, 5/11 & 5/24 (@1435, 1405 & 1384. It was a long frustrating
time
> > > with
> > > > healthy profits at times and sickening reversals that made one
> question
> > > > one's mechanical approach. All's well that ends well. Most
reliable
> > > > momentum oscillators (StoRSI's, BB Osc, and the CMO's) have traveled
> too
> > > far
> > > > north and triggered sell signals. This will be our first short, in
> the
> > > the
> > > > S&P arena, since 3/24/00.
> > > >
> > > > Steve Karnish
> > > > Cedar Creek Trading
> > > > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Saturday, June 03, 2000 2:23 PM
> > > > Subject: RE: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Mickey
> > > > >
> > > > > Yes, you are correct, we do vary the weighting of our six
components
> > of
> > > > our
> > > > > SP39 signal depending upon which commodity we are tracking.
Certain
> > > > > components work better with different commodities. And yes, we do
> use
> > > > > binary waves. Without going back to our source code (it's been a
> > while
> > > > > since we've changed these) I think each of our six components is a
> > > binary
> > > > > wave. Our technique being, once we get a buy signal on that one
> > > > indicator,
> > > > > we set the binary wave to keep that buy signal in place until we
get
> a
> > > > sell
> > > > > signal at which time we reverse it. We refer to this as latching.
> > For
> > > > > example (I guess this is because we're contrarians) if a certain
> > > indicator
> > > > > is a buy, then we set the binary wave at -1 (or -2 if it's
weighted
> > x2,
> > > > > or -3 if it carries a weight of x3). Our SP39 signal is the sum
> total
> > > of
> > > > > our six components and can vary from +10 to -10 and we calculate
it
> > > daily.
> > > > > We then transfer the result to an Excel spreadsheet.
> > > > >
> > > > > In actuality, we maintain 2 different SP39 signals. One we call
MS
> > and
> > > > one
> > > > > we call Original (not very creative). The reason for the
difference
> > is
> > > as
> > > > > follows: When we first started using MetaStock in the old DOS
days,
> > we
> > > > were
> > > > > unable to come up with a way to code our momentum indicators
because
> > of
> > > > > various limitations in MS. I spent about 4 months trying to get
it
> to
> > > > work
> > > > > and finally had to develop modified momentum indicators for use in
> MS
> > > (we
> > > > > have 2 momentum indicators, short and long term momentum). We
> called
> > it
> > > > our
> > > > > MS SP39 signal. In addition, we still maintained our Original SP39
> > (even
> > > > > though we really didn't call it that at the time) in Clipper.
This
> > was
> > > a
> > > > > little pain because we had to manually enter and maintain our
> Clipper
> > > > > databases while we were able to automate the MS one using
> Downloader.
> > > At
> > > > > that time, I discovered TAS and reprogrammed our Original SP39
from
> > > > Clipper
> > > > > into TAS. With the advent of MS v6.5.2, we are now able to do all
> of
> > > our
> > > > > calculations in MS and have discontinues the use of TAS.
> > > > >
> > > > > We still enter about 25 commodities daily from the WSJ and use
> Clipper
> > > for
> > > > > developmental purposes. All of our Intermediate Term Signals run
in
> > > > Clipper
> > > > > as that's the language my dad uses. He has never really made the
> > > > transition
> > > > > to Windows, even though we have him on a Win98SE machine. He's
been
> > > > working
> > > > > in a CP/M and DOS world for 26 years and doesn't want to take the
> time
> > > to
> > > > > learn a new language (and I can't say that I blame him at 91 years
> > old).
> > > > >
> > > > > Finally, we don't do much with other commodities other than the
S&P
> > > > futures
> > > > > right now. The S&P futures are working too well, the market is
too
> > big
> > > > and
> > > > > the volumes are too great to even spend time with the other
> > commodities.
> > > > We
> > > > > maintain the other commodities out of habit in case we ever have
to
> go
> > > > back
> > > > > to trading regular futures again, we'll have all of the data.
> > > > >
> > > > > Guy
> > > > >
> > > > > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all
worthwhile!
> > > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > > > > Behalf Of Michel Amelinckx
> > > > > Sent: Saturday, June 03, 2000 5:37 AM
> > > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: RE: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
> > > > >
> > > > > Guy, I want to thank you ONCE AGAIN for your great insight.
> > > > >
> > > > > >From what I understand, you don't optimise. But you do play with
> > > giving
> > > > > different weightings to the different indicators that you created,
> > right
> > > ?
> > > > > Like a binary wave.
> > > > >
> > > > > Greetings, master and THANKS :)
> > > > >
> > > > > Mickey
> > > > >
> > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Guy Tann
> > > > > > Sent: zaterdag 3 juni 2000 8:05
> > > > > > To: Metastock User Group
> > > > > > Subject: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > List et al,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Well that was one heck of a ride! We closed everything out
> > > > > > an hour or so
> > > > > > before the close and are in cash (equities and futures).
> > > > > >
> > > > > > As I said, we were waiting for the proper "contrary" and we are
> now
> > in
> > > > > > possession of a real sell signal.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I'm not sure what we'll be selling short on Monday. We will
> > > > > > be shorting our
> > > > > > S&P futures naturally. But we'll need to do some calculations
> > > > > > to determine
> > > > > > how many to short in keeping with our money management
> > > > > > philosophy. I'm not
> > > > > > sure if we'll be shorting stocks or just buying some OEX Put
> > > > > > options and/or
> > > > > > our normal QQQ, DIA and SPY indices. I don't think we'll be
> > > > > > quite as heavy
> > > > > > on the short side.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The problem being a contrarian is we trade opposite everybody
> > > > > > else and we
> > > > > > have to dance with the lady that brung us. That means, we trade
> all
> > > > > > signals, no matter how nervous we feel. We know we are only
> > > > > > going to be
> > > > > > right 4 out of every 5 trades, on average, and we never know
> > > > > > if the next one
> > > > > > is IT.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Now the following is to encourage those of you who have
> > > > > > fairly good signals
> > > > > > (like buys and/or sell signals) to make sure you take a good
> > > > > > look at the
> > > > > > ValueLine 1-1 stocks that we've been trading. Here are the
> > > > > > actual results
> > > > > > with my brother's granddaughter's account being an absolutely
> > > > > > great example
> > > > > > since he can't do futures in it or sell short.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > [OFF TOPIC] [NOT MEANT FOR BUSINESS, TROLLING or WHATEVER]
MY
> > > > > > DISCLAIMER!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > As an aside, I have some trade summary data to report.
> > > > > > Before I do, I'd
> > > > > > like to state officially that we're NOT looking to sell
> > > > > > anything, we have NO
> > > > > > web site, no newsletter, and are not registered CTAs. Even
> > > > > > if we proceed
> > > > > > with a newsletter sometime in the future, that's months away
> > > > > > and our system
> > > > > > might turn to crap by then, so everybody should consider himself
> (or
> > > > > > herself, to be PC) warned. We're just private traders. Now
that
> > I've
> > > > > > reiterated the disclaimer, a little stronger, here are some
> > > > > > of our UNAUDITED
> > > > > > results.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > First, my brother started trading equities, in addition to
> > > > > > futures last
> > > > > > June. We now have a complete 12 months of data in his
> > > > > > accounts. He was
> > > > > > profitable 11 out of the 12 months. Even with a couple of our
> > famous
> > > > > > screw-ups (like that big loss last November) he finished the
> > > > > > year up 100%
> > > > > > (he made a 100% return on capital). I don't want to give the
> > numbers
> > > > > > because that's his business, but we're talking mid six
> > > > > > figures. Of course,
> > > > > > the account is sort of back at it's original size because he
> > > > > > had to pay
> > > > > > Uncle Sam his due and he bought a lot for his retirement home
> > > > > > and another
> > > > > > country club membership to go with that new lot. Still, all in
> all
> > a
> > > > > > successful year.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Second, on a lighter note, he opened up a Crumy Trust (I
> > > > > > think that's a
> > > > > > college trust and I'm not sure how you spell it) for his
> > > > > > granddaughter on
> > > > > > November 15,1999. He funded it with $10,000. Now, he is not
> > > > > > allowed to go
> > > > > > short in this account, so he's limited to only trading our
> > > > > > buy signals. He
> > > > > > closed out her positions today and put her in cash (money market
> > fund
> > > > > > actually). Her account balance, as of the close of trading
today,
> > is
> > > > > > $24,231.84. Again, this is unaudited, but since we're not
> > > > > > trying to sell
> > > > > > anybody anything, too bad. His trading technique for Lucy's
> > > > > > account is as
> > > > > > follows. When we get a buy signal, he mentally goes down the
> > > > > > list of the
> > > > > > top 10 to 15 stocks we plan on trading in our own accounts (from
> the
> > > > > > ValueLine 1-1 selection process I laid out earlier). He
> > > > > > selects the top 3
> > > > > > or 4 and buys these. I think she held LSI, AMD and one other
> > > > > > one. Not too
> > > > > > bad for a young lady who just turned 1. :) His target is
$40,000
> by
> > > > > > November. I only wish him well, because that means I'll be
> > > > > > on the same
> > > > > > merry-go-round.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > On a final note, he opened up a $5,000 account for our sister
also
> > on
> > > > > > November 15, 1999. Now she's always been the free spirit in
> > > > > > the family and
> > > > > > just started to mature in her mid 50s. She loved the
> > > > > > Grateful Dead, has a
> > > > > > couple of giant dogs (Newfoundland or however you spell those
> > > > > > monsters) a
> > > > > > new yellow VW Beatle and a new house that I'm sure her cats
> > > > > > and dogs have
> > > > > > already trashed. She lived through the 60s and 70s and can't
> > > > > > remember much,
> > > > > > if anything of it. :) I on the other hand already had two
> > > > > > kids in the 60s
> > > > > > so I wasn't able to not remember anything until after the
> > > > > > divorce in the
> > > > > > 70s. Anyway, enough reminiscing, her account balance, as of
> > > > > > the close of
> > > > > > trading today is approximately $10,000 (I didn't ask my
> > > > > > brother for the
> > > > > > exact number and he might have lied to me anyway :)).
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I guess what I'm trying to say, is that working with the
ValueLine
> > > > > > recommendations has a limited track record with us and has
> > > > > > come through with
> > > > > > flying colors, and has even compensated for those times we
screwed
> > up.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > [The RANTINGS of an OLD F**T]
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Happy trading to all. I'm in a great mood after this week,
> > > > > > so I thought I'd
> > > > > > share some additional thoughts with the list and try to
> > > > > > encourage everyone
> > > > > > to keep working to find that Holy Grail. A little proviso is
> > > > > > to try to
> > > > > > experiment with various, different approaches and not use
> > > > > > anybody's tools.
> > > > > > Develop your own. It's hard but can be done. As I've said
> > > > > > several times,
> > > > > > the only indicator we use in MetaStock that came with the
> > > > > > software is the
> > > > > > moving average. We use it on our own indicators or within our
own
> > > > > > indicators. Everything else in the 14 levels of calculations
> > > > > > uses addition,
> > > > > > subtraction, division and multiplication and that's it. You
> > > > > > don't need to
> > > > > > be a genius. You do need to develop a "feel" for numbers and
> > > > > > the market.
> > > > > > We don't use anything else! Nothing fancy. No advanced
> > > > > > math, even though
> > > > > > all of us have degrees in things like statistical economics,
> > > > > > engineering
> > > > > > math, math and statistics, etc. There's no easy way to do
> > > > > > this. You need
> > > > > > to spend the time and effort and grind it out. I firmly
> > > > > > believe that the
> > > > > > first year or two should be done without a computer, but
> > > > > > that's my opinion
> > > > > > and I've been working with computers for over 40 years now,
> > > > > > and that you
> > > > > > should paper trade a system at first. Secondly, don't use
> > > > > > optimization
> > > > > > tools. It either works or it doesn't and it works with
> > > > > > numbers that make
> > > > > > sense, not two out of a basket of 300,000. We don't
> > > > > > optimize! We tried it
> > > > > > and found that it cost us too much money. It's highly
> > > > > > overrated, in our
> > > > > > opinion, but we did spend a couple of years playing with
> > > > > > MetaStock doing it.
> > > > > > We do back test any new indicators we develop. We're firm
> > > > > > believers in back
> > > > > > testing, however we feel the more recent results are more
> > > > > > important that how
> > > > > > the indicator worked 5 years ago. Took us a while to understand
> > that
> > > > > > because of the dynamics of the market, you need to constantly
> > > > > > monitor your
> > > > > > indicators, etc. Actually, we constantly monitor our trading
> > > > > > rules, but
> > > > > > that's another rant.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I hope everyone has a great weekend.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Guy
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all
> worthwhile!
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Do You Yahoo!?
> > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
> > http://im.yahoo.com
> >
> >
>
>
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