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<DIV><FONT size=2>Larry and George I've been running Ver 7.0
RT for 7 months without a problem. The 1st answer from MetaStock was to insert
the CD when requested. I had already told them the program would not recognized
the inserted CD and repeated the request. I received no answer to my 2nd request
for HELP. So far, the program continues to boot but the annoying request
continues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Norm Wiss<BR><A
href="mailto:cutup2@xxxxxxxx";>cutup2@xxxxxxxx</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><BR> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Larry </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, June 16, 2000 12:45
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: CD verification</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Today, I also started to receive this annoying message, asking
for CD verification. Is it a bug in the program?
<P>"Norman Wiss Jr." wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE">
<STYLE></STYLE>
<FONT size=-1>My program keeps calling for the CD for verification each time
I start MetaStock. How can I get the program to recognize the CD and to stop
asking this question?</FONT> <BR><FONT size=-1>Norm Wiss</FONT>
<BR><FONT size=-1><A
href="mailto:cutup2@xxxxxxxx";>cutup2@xxxxxxxx</A></FONT> </BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Jun 16 08:42:20 2000
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From: "Glen Wallace" <gcwallace@xxxxxxxx>
To: "MetaStock listserver" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Fw: Fed Funds and probability of hike rate
Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2000 07:40:08 -0700
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Status:
I thought this would be of interest here. A small error in the math, but the
logic holds. Forwarded with permission ....
> Alberto -
>
> That is my specialty. In fact, there is a good chance that the quote came
> from me or an acquaintance of mine, Jim Bianco, especially if it was Bridge
> News.
>
> The whole calculation can be complex, but in this case it is pretty simple.
> The July futures trade at 94.435. Since there is no meeting in July, if the
> Fed leaves the funds rate unchanged, fair value for the contract is 94.50.
> If the Fed increases on 28-June, the fair value is 94.25. We get this by
> subtracting the funds rate from 100. The current rate is 6.50%. A 25 basis
> point hike would be 6.75%. The current odds then are
> (94.50-94.435)/(94.50-94.25) =6.5/25.0 = 26%.
>
> The calculation is somewhat more complex if there is a meeting during the
> month, and it is more complex when there are multiple meetings since you
> have to get into conditional probabilities, but in this case, it is
> absolutely correct.
>
> By the way, I have spoken with Fed officials, and they watch this number
> closely and compute the odds in exactly this manner, to see what the market
> is thinking. The funds futures measure WHAT THE MARKET THINKS THAT THE FED
> WILL DO. If the Fed does not want to surprise the market, that is what they
> will do. The contract has been correct for something like 30 straight
> meeting. Based on where it is now, the Fed will not increase in June.
>
> Steve Poser
> ---
> Steven W. Poser, President
> Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> http://www.poserglobal.com
> swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Tel: 201-995-0845
> Fax: 201-995-0846
>
>
>
> Realtraders,
>
> Here is an excerpt taken from a news agency some days ago:
>
> >"Prices of July Fed Funds reflect a 48% chance of a 25bps rate hike at
> >the June 27/28 meeting. That probability is almost 30% higher than
> >what was prices in after last week May payroll data."
>
> What's the calculation to extrapolate the probability of a FED hike from
> the July Fed Fund price?
>
> Thanks for your comments.
>
> Regards,
> Alberto
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