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You are right the rik of three bad trades in a row with 75% winners is about
2% (and not 6% as I wrote yesterday night by mistake, but it was very late).
It's to much for me especially if you trade short term. A risk of 2% does not
mean that it will happen after 98 trades: it can happen after 2 trades and
you will not be around to take the 96 next winners (assuming that this bad
string does not repeat itself right away). Also the percentage of winners
may, at the same time drop to 65% during a while for instance raising the
risk of ruin to 4.2%. 75% being an average the result may be different if the
size of the sample is smaller and the risk of ruin will rise substancially.
Jean Jacques
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