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Hi Michael,
As a neural network developer, it's not unusual to have nets attempt to
predict moving averages in anticipation of future market changes. If you
want to see some S&P 500 examples, you can visit my website.
Regards, Brian
www.financialtimingmodels.com
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Robb <mlrobb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, July 14, 2000 2:47 PM
Subject: Project moving average
>This reminds me of the Hurst technique developed in his 1971 book where,
>rather than projecting the moving average, he projected future price.
>
>The projection was based on the first turn of a lagged MA coupled with
>doubling the measurement of price/MA at the turning point.
>
>Furthermore, if you were collecting time cycles as he suggested, you could
>experience a cascade of MA projections based on the achievement of the
first
>objective.
>
>Your overriding trend of larger cycles could help you estimate whether
>objectives might be reached in an early or later part of the cycle.
>
>Pardo had programmed all this in DOS back in the 1980's but I have never
>seen any talk about this famous Hurst System in the windows conversations.
>
>Paul Rabrich, also of Chicago, wrote fascinating DOS systems based on
>combining various numerical studies and using no graphics at all. Likewise
I
>have never heard of any windows software being offered by him.
>
>I do note that the Hurst book is back in print...at a high price, as it
>should; however I have never seen anything published for sale by Paul
>Rabrich.
>
>Hurst's breakthrough was the half-span MA. (half the time of the dominant
>time cycle) His next discovery was to lag the MA and make a price
projection
>at its turning point.
>
>Early chart services of the Hurst method did incorporate a MA
>projection....which was a human estimate based on underlying, and longer
>cycles. It was plotted as a midpoint line in a channel, if I recall
>correctly. I do not recollect the dimensions of the channel, or exactly how
>it was conceived; but on the chart it was just an estimate of the computer
>determined channel width for the past data.
>
>Very interesting work in cycles, Fourier analysis, half-span MAs and price
>projection techniques, published in 1971.
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Martin" <clarke2@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Friday, July 14, 2000 12:34 PM
>Subject: Crystal Ball Gazing
>
>
>> Just a thought,
>>
>> Can you make an exploration which looks into the future by using
>> ref(c,+1) in the expression?
>> or is there another way to project, say a moving average into the future
>> based on its recent performance, that is within metastock, not taking it
>> out into excel. Just trying to stay ahead of the crowd.
>>
>>
>
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