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Regarding your latest SELL for S&P and unfortunatly for your signal, have to contraire your signal
by both the BIAS "POS" & the Coppock "BUY" signals.
The newer version of the BIAS momentum(ST/IMT) that I had developped and am testing for about a
few years now, signalled a 4 weekdays prior to the current BIAS version signal,
e.g. 0707 BUY vs 0711 BUY, which is a two(2) exchangedays advance-gain (forgetting the Sat+Sun
weekend days), so on the usual average of a 6 (to 7) days delay(old BIAS) before the signal gets
presented, here is a 33.3% gain for the signal-timing part(new BIAS).
Now why does this "33.3%" figure(eg decimal fractal 1/3) always shows up in the financial markets?
(One can bet that it is not fibionacian !!!!. But this is not relivant here in this mail).
For the moment a replica of the March/April head in the RSI is under construction.
And from the "possitveness in underlay"(eg the BIAS) that can be found in the other
ww followed Indexes (eg the 3x DOW's, DAX, EuroSTOXX50, €-STARS, NIKKEI & Hang Seng,
all uptrending & POS signalled), do not quite know how to currently place your SELL signal.
Market is in an average-Accelerated UpTrend(see below+the gif).
Market is in an over-Accelerated State when the Rising Wedge gets outtaken @ the top(=bullish).
OTOH, in favor of your signal is that the volumes have declined (some rapidly : DOW+AEX).
But also volume is never an influencing measure for Trend triggers, therefore it can (now) only
be used for signalling a possible end of a LT trend and most likely only "well ahead".
I therefore chart and signal that (at the earliest in (early) Aug00, and for the others this Autumn(Oct)):
-the LT uptrend to end if the Support Line 1453 gets downbroken
(break from the Diamond(1553-1339))
-the IMT uptrend to end if the Rising Support Line gets downbroken
(Accelaration Line from 1361+1442+?)
-the ST uptrend to end if the Support Line 1473 gets downbroken
(break from the TCP(1483-1361)+Diamond)
-the VST uptrend to end if the Rising Support Line gets downbroken
(Accelaration Line from 1440+1470+?)
LT Trend's End:
-The making of the uptrend move to the final Target T 1667, already signaled in prev mail(s)
(000411: 1652) is also still current and can be seen as the "Trend's end".
-A downbreak through the 1453 former Breakout-now-Support level can be seen
as the "Trend's end"
for which both now the ends have been esthablished.
Although my in prev mails expressed opinions, that the markets are "top-heavy" and are
therefore ready for a major large correction to softly crashing (apart from YOY charting, with
consideration too of the Intrest Rates' IMT+LT uptrend), it is not a reason for me to stick to
this type of systematic and to continue on to anticipate on falling markets (that will not fall as
expected and as yet). Driving a Benz, or whatever for that matter, with a brick wall upfont, will
have one sainly go into the breaks as well.
I therefore also do NOT underwrite the very empty phrase:
"I must stick to my system" that a lot of blabber and non-blabber mouths express
(on the List and on/in media elsewhere).
"I use it when it suites me" is my stand on this.
But then again, I go against many esthablished empty standards (people+rhymes&riddles,
see prev mails).
Now what's the Mounts S&P word (what can we expect) for the next episode?
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
Homepage http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
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