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Then I believe nothing is working in this market. Yesterday was a large
range expansion pivot breakdown XPO and today the market went in the other
direction. Breakout systems don't seem to follow through either. So I
believe this market conditions seems to be hard to trade with no follow
through days for breakout players and contrarian players having difficulty.
I'm wondering which kind of system (traders) are making money in this
market. Maybe option players who use spreads, like buying PUT and CALL when
volatility (the VIX was at a X day low)was low and waiting till a change in
volatility. Problem with this is that time is against you and your not sure
when this shift will occur. I'm interested to hear if anyone is trading
this style ?
Thanks in advance
Mickey
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Guy Tann
> Sent: maandag 31 juli 2000 19:43
> To: Metastock User Group
> Subject: There's a lot of pain being a contrarian
>
>
> List,
>
> Well, the pain is still present, but thankfully not growing
> this morning.
> As of right now, I'm down 18.65% on this trade (equities and
> options only as
> we won't even follow the futures until the next sell signal)
>
> Even with starting small and adding to my long positions,
> I've managed to
> give back almost half of my June profits on this trade (at
> least on paper)
> as of the close on Friday. Needless to say, it's been
> painful, as we hate
> to give anything back, even on paper. Right now, we've
> picked up almost 30%
> of that loss as of Friday's close. That translates to I only
> need two more
> days to breakeven. Again, that's the problem being right
> only 3 out of 4
> trades (on average). Occasionally, one bites you in the rear.
>
> On the bright side, we got our SIG/700 signal on Friday,
> which is what we're
> going to be using for trading options. My brother bought
> QVQIL (I think he
> paid 5 1/4) and QVQAL @ 11 1/8. Except for 1998 (as I've
> said before when
> it sucked at only 50+% correct) this signal has been correct
> 100% in 1997,
> 1999 and 2000 (so far). We will only use this for options
> because of big
> draw downs. We also plan on initiating only one-third of our
> positions on
> this signal, and add to it if it goes against us.
>
> I didn't get my option orders off this morning as I was too
> busy watching
> some 10 year olds running around, but am not too concerned
> since I still
> have 30 OEXHT. :( I need about 9 points to get in the black on these
> monsters.
>
> Out of all of my positions, the only one currently in the
> black is LSI,
> which we feel is an excellent buy at this level. That might
> account for the
> fact that we hold 3,000 shares between us.
>
> We missed buying 15 CWYJL Cisco Oct 60 options this morning
> by 1/4. Oh
> well, we'll keep trying.
>
> Guy
>
> Never be afraid to try something new. Remember, amateurs
> built the ark,
> professionals built the Titanic.
>
>
>
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