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Mark,
I know that many on this list will not like that I would choose to reply
in agreement with you (you have a way of creating discord), and I will
be the first to tell someone that I am no professional trader (yet)......but
even as much an amateur that I am, I can understand the truth of what
you have just said.
Adam
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mark Brown" <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "metastock" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; "Omega List"
<omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, August 11, 2000 1:09 PM
Subject: The driving force behind technical analysis
> The driving force behind technical analysis, to true life saga played
> out in the hot Texas sun two years ago on a multilane stretch of road
> under construction. As I set parked in traffic waiting for the Lady
> Officer to waive myself and the multitudes of course behind me. I
> thought perhaps she may have fallen asleep behind those deeply tented
> sunglasses she was wearing so I gently beeped my horn just make sure
> if she had fallen asleep I could get her awaken before she hit the
> pavement.
>
> But evidently she in fact was not asleep and did not appreciate my
> actions no matter how good my intentions. As I set there now with half
> of Dallas's population who own cars behind me, I watched three more
> red lights turned green and back to read without moving so much as a
> foot. So in what I thought was the best interest of the general public
> communicate my feelings of claustrophobia both mechanically and
> manually by making verbal sounds with my mouth. Evidently she did not
> have a great appreciation for my concern of her lack of ability to
> perform her given task.
>
> Of all things as a reward for my failed efforts are received a ticket
> issued for disorderly conduct. Having long experience with matters
> like these, I knew it was futile to do anything, other than send it
> over to attorney who was driving a Volkswagen that needed paint 20
> years ago and who's secretaries are now driving Mercedes. So anyway my
> attorney whose a smart lady knows the ropes around the Dallas traffic
> judicial system pretty well. She knows the longer something can be
> postponed the more likely it can be dismissed.
>
> In this case we were hoping that maybe the female officer's live in
> might become pregnant and the officer would need to find a less risky
> line of work to support her lover and baby. ;- ) Or something else
> like that, which would help maintain my absolutely perfect
> non-criminal history. Well there was that one exception back in 1979
> when the Fed's got all upset over an article in Soldier Of Fortune
> magazine. But you're not a real Texan unless you have the Fed's
> investigating you at some point in your life.
>
> As I was driving back for my court victory this morning, I realized a
> couple of things. One is I have a car that is five years old and has
> less than 40,000 miles on it. Secondly I discovered that driving is
> like technical analysis, I mean exactly the same. I will demonstrate
> correlation between the two. Priding myself somewhat as an alert
> driver well aware of his surroundings. I observed that when I was
> approaching an intersection I would immediately start to scope out the
> participants at the red light in front me.
>
> I started to group them first by the most obvious indication that I
> saw which was newness of the vehicle. The theory being if a car was
> smoking from the tail pipe or has dull paint and is leaning to one
> side it probably will not be up to my acceleration criteria. As I
> approach the participants in front of me having accumulated the input
> data and stored it as to the newness of the vehicles etc.
>
> I realized I was on to the next indicator which I rely upon, that is
> the numbers of occupants in the vehicle. The theory been the more
> participants, the more conversation that will have been a less likely
> that will be paying attention when the light turns during - thus again
> not meeting acceleration criteria to follow it. Next I observe what
> the operator of the vehicle is doing, if they're smoking I take that
> into account. If they're eating, drinking are talking on the phone,
> each one of these different inputs is placed into my formula and will
> have a bearing on my decision " who" to lineup behind at that the red
> light.
>
> I then turn my attention to try and differentiate age, this judgment
> is made by the observation of posture, hair color, hair length - and
> oddly enough the make of car. I even go as far as to observe the car
> has door handles are not in the traditional sense, meaning those which
> protrude from the body off the vehicle. Lots of older people by Buicks
> because the one of the few vehicles that is manufactured that still
> has door handles. Of course experience in plays a big hand in the
> dissemination of the information, and has a direct impact on the
> output decision.
>
> A red low-slung sports car does not necessarily become the first
> choice to line up behind, its occupants may be a male and female.
> Under this scenario you still have to evaluate other variables such as
> the age difference between the male and female occupants. Simply to
> say that their male and female does not automatically imply that they
> would be hot lovers who are more interested in each other than
> driving. They could be father daughter just as well, that throws them
> into whole other category. If on the other hand the occupants are
> clearly boyfriend girlfriend - that's one thing. If the male is using
> this cell phone, this would be a larger detriment than if his
> girlfriend was using the cell phone. The distance separating the
> boyfriend girlfriend should also be taken into account.
>
> Items such as bumper stickers, and what they say will have bearing
> upon my decision as I continued to analyze the traffic slowing in
> front of me. Answer me this, why would anyone have a bumper sticker
> that says if you can read this then you're too close? This is a sure
> sign that the driver of this vehicle fully understands that the world
> is passing them by, and they have absolutely no desire to try and keep
> up. On the other hand I fully appreciate those big yellow signs in the
> rear glass which say baby on board. These people truly must be
> recognized for their brilliance.
>
> With one small sign they've accomplished both my goals and their
> goals. There goals are to keep me from pile driving than those of my
> car into the rear end of their vehicle at a speed which he surely
> twice what they are driving.
>
> My goals which they are helping me to obtain is to identify
> slow-moving obstacles which are clearly not conducive to proper
> traffic flow.
>
> I could go on and down about possible various scenarios of infinite
> numbers of combinations of the technical analysis of driving. Just as
> I could about trading, I think if I had to summarize I would say that
> all the input data in the world doesn't matter by itself. Being alert
> and a good observer is quintessential to survival and advancement in
> the human race. Very few people are truly observant and aware of every
> aspect of life and work. So it is in trading the same.
>
> Mark Brown
>
>
>
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