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James,
My brother is in the semiconductor field (currently has his own rep firm
with clients like Palm, etc.) and he is in daily talks with others in the
industry. He gets information from many firms that he reps and their
executives. They're expecting a shortage. I think one of them is the 4th
largest manufacturer of DRAM chips (I think).
Now today (or yesterday), I think, 64k DRAM prices dropped from $7 to $5.
Not a good sign. We kept our longs.
The feeling is that there will be a Q4 DRAM shortage. That's why we bought
the TSM and MU. TSM had great earnings and we're looking forward to a
better Q4 if any shortage appears.
Guy
" When I die, I want to go peacefully like my grandfather did, in his sleep.
Not yelling and screaming like the passengers in his car."
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of James Palmer
Sent: Wednesday, September 20, 2000 8:08 AM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: DRAM shortage?
Hello Guy,
Nice trade on MU yesterday. Although things are a litle rocky taday it seems
to be holding nicely.
When you say the rumour on the street in Silicon Valley is that there is
going to be a shortage of DRAM, what do you mean? Word of mouth from people
you know? Are there any reasons that people think there is going to be a
shortage? I read a few weeks ago thatToshiba contracted out a huge amount
DRAM even though they are big manufacturers. The reason was they
anticipated not having enough DRAM. I'm curious if there is any pretext to
these rumours.
Best regards,
James
----- Original Message -----
From: "Guy Tann" <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Metastock User Group" <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, September 19, 2000 10:07 PM
Subject: Over sold?
> List,
>
> Well we finally got an up day. Hooray!
>
> We felt that the NASDAQ was oversold yesterday and we bought more stuff
this
> morning (unfortunately we didn't buy enough).
>
> Now, FWIW, the rumor on the street in Silicon Valley is that there is
going
> to be a DRAM shortage in Q4 and that companies like MU are great buys. We
> bought some on the open today at $60.50. People in Silicon Valley also
like
> TSM, which is still a good buy (in their opinion). These recommendations
> are worth exactly what you paid for them (my disclaimer) but we are buying
> these and putting them away through yearend (this would be a long term
> capital gain in our vocabulary). :)
>
> My brother also bought PMCS and SEBL last week and they looked pretty
> healthy today.
>
> While our stocks aren't doing too badly considering the disaster of the
last
> two week, our options are biting the big one. We own about 50 of these
OEX
> options and 50 QQQ options and while today helped, we need about three
more
> days like today to get well. Keeping our fingers crossed. I think we hit
a
> support level on the NASDAQ yesterday and we're in the process of bouncing
> off this support level. Let's hope this isn't a dead cat bounce. :)
>
> Now, remembering our last trade, we were on the wrong side and came back
to
> breakeven. That would look good to me right about now. :)
>
> In reviewing my option trading so far, I'm running 75% correct, however
the
> return, to date, has been a paltry $9,000. Hardly worth the time and
money,
> so we're going to spend a lot more time and effort looking these over.
>
> Guy
>
> " When I die, I want to go peacefully like my grandfather did, in his
sleep.
> Not yelling and screaming like the passengers in his car."
>
>
>
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