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Very dangerous position. Low prices on the spot market indicate
businesses dumping excess inventory, which is in turn an indication of
a business slowdown. DRAMs tend to get double & triple ordered. Any
business slowdown then triggers a huge drop in prices.
On Wed, 20 Sep 2000 14:31:01 -0700, "Guy Tann" <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
>James,
>
>My brother is in the semiconductor field (currently has his own rep firm
>with clients like Palm, etc.) and he is in daily talks with others in the
>industry. He gets information from many firms that he reps and their
>executives. They're expecting a shortage. I think one of them is the 4th
>largest manufacturer of DRAM chips (I think).
>
>Now today (or yesterday), I think, 64k DRAM prices dropped from $7 to $5.
>Not a good sign. We kept our longs.
>
>The feeling is that there will be a Q4 DRAM shortage. That's why we bought
>the TSM and MU. TSM had great earnings and we're looking forward to a
>better Q4 if any shortage appears.
>
>Guy
>
>" When I die, I want to go peacefully like my grandfather did, in his sleep.
>Not yelling and screaming like the passengers in his car."
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
>Behalf Of James Palmer
>Sent: Wednesday, September 20, 2000 8:08 AM
>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: Re: DRAM shortage?
>
>Hello Guy,
>Nice trade on MU yesterday. Although things are a litle rocky taday it seems
>to be holding nicely.
>When you say the rumour on the street in Silicon Valley is that there is
>going to be a shortage of DRAM, what do you mean? Word of mouth from people
>you know? Are there any reasons that people think there is going to be a
>shortage? I read a few weeks ago thatToshiba contracted out a huge amount
>DRAM even though they are big manufacturers. The reason was they
>anticipated not having enough DRAM. I'm curious if there is any pretext to
>these rumours.
>
>Best regards,
>
>James
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Guy Tann" <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: "Metastock User Group" <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Tuesday, September 19, 2000 10:07 PM
>Subject: Over sold?
>
>
>> List,
>>
>> Well we finally got an up day. Hooray!
>>
>> We felt that the NASDAQ was oversold yesterday and we bought more stuff
>this
>> morning (unfortunately we didn't buy enough).
>>
>> Now, FWIW, the rumor on the street in Silicon Valley is that there is
>going
>> to be a DRAM shortage in Q4 and that companies like MU are great buys. We
>> bought some on the open today at $60.50. People in Silicon Valley also
>like
>> TSM, which is still a good buy (in their opinion). These recommendations
>> are worth exactly what you paid for them (my disclaimer) but we are buying
>> these and putting them away through yearend (this would be a long term
>> capital gain in our vocabulary). :)
>>
>> My brother also bought PMCS and SEBL last week and they looked pretty
>> healthy today.
>>
>> While our stocks aren't doing too badly considering the disaster of the
>last
>> two week, our options are biting the big one. We own about 50 of these
>OEX
>> options and 50 QQQ options and while today helped, we need about three
>more
>> days like today to get well. Keeping our fingers crossed. I think we hit
>a
>> support level on the NASDAQ yesterday and we're in the process of bouncing
>> off this support level. Let's hope this isn't a dead cat bounce. :)
>>
>> Now, remembering our last trade, we were on the wrong side and came back
>to
>> breakeven. That would look good to me right about now. :)
>>
>> In reviewing my option trading so far, I'm running 75% correct, however
>the
>> return, to date, has been a paltry $9,000. Hardly worth the time and
>money,
>> so we're going to spend a lot more time and effort looking these over.
>>
>> Guy
>>
>> " When I die, I want to go peacefully like my grandfather did, in his
>sleep.
>> Not yelling and screaming like the passengers in his car."
>>
>>
>>
>
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