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Hi Mark,
Gee I didn't know we'd had such a terrible year until I got your post.
Let's see now, reviewing my public posts to last October 11 (taken from the
spread sheet we attached to our little email family newsletter, that I
occasionally posted), for our futures trading and looking at the returns, I
see they were terrible. Yup, really terrible. All of those fiascos,
debacles and other wild trades add up to (stated in terms of 1 emini for
simplicity sake): TA, TA!
Initial Margin $4,688.00
Total Trades 22
Total wins 17
Total loses 5
% Wins 77.27%
Net Points 625.40
Gross $ profit, 1 contract $31,270.00
Net $ profit, 1 contract $30,698.00
Boy, I never realized we had done so poorly until you pointed it out to me.
Thanks, Mark for your concern, but I think we'll survive on our 600%+ return
on margin (and over 200% on capital). And yes, we do have the trading slips
for each and every one of these trades, but since we're not trying to sell
anything here, like you, we don't really care who believes it other than our
bankers and the IRS. :) We're back to our overall profitable trade
percentages of the past 15 to 20 years now, of 75% (approximate). This
current trade is currently showing a paper loss of about 60 points (around
noon our time).
In terms of holding MU and TSM, I announced when we bought these, that they
were a long term (for us) trade for the next quarter, contrary to our
regular futures trading. And yes, we will be buying more MU when we feel
its time, again from my posts, but not TSM as we already own enough of that
one. We don't use options much and learned a long time ago that these so
called methods not only minimize losses, they also can substantially reduce
profits. Being futures traders, these individual moves are irrelevant.
It's where the trade ends up that really counts, in case you don't remember.
Again, thanks for your concern, but we seem to have managed to get through
the last 12 months without much pain, other than taxes. Our only failure
has been in not reaching that seven figure trading account we were striving
for by year-end, but there is still one quarter left.
On the other hand, I've got to review my filtering methodology since your
email managed to get through. Somehow, in installing new software, I
managed to wipe out my kill file. Oh well, I'll look at it later this week.
:) I do want to take this opportunity to publically complement you on the
tone of your post. Still snide but more civilized and substantially
improved in spelling and grammar. Your 4AM posts were the first positive
thing I've ever seen you do here in the past couple of years. Keep up the
good work (I'm sleeping at 4AM so I haven't been able to really look at
these and we don't have any real-time ticker anyway).
Regards,
Guy
" If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you."
-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Brown [mailto:markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, September 26, 2000 9:19 AM
To: Guy Tann
Cc: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re[4]: DRAM shortage?
Hello Guy,
GT> As I put in my email, we're holding this stock for a while in case this
DRAM
GT> rumor of a Q4 shortage is real. Since I have no idea whether it is or
not,
GT> I'm buying some for my own account.
GT> In case anyone wants to follow this trade we're long MU at 60 1/2.
gee Guy since you always have advice to give out i was wondering HOW
THE HELL ARE YOU GOING TO MANAGE THIS TRADE? OR ARE YOU? now that we
are trading at 49 do you have a plan? are you advocating buying more?
next time you do this you need to sell calls against your position to
help eliminate a fiasco like you have gotten yourself into.
GT> We're also long TSM at $28 3/8 (I think, going from memory here)
GT> and we'll hold these for a while, regardless of our other signals.
at least its a cheaper stock. but you should have sold calls against
the position also. steal the idea make it your own and include it in
your future debacles. maybe you will be more cautious of your
recommendations in the future.
i see that Steve Karnish hasn't shown his face since he gave his last
advice either. maybe there is a lesson to be learned like posting
VAGUE stats and numbers with many important zero's behind them like
Ton Maas (aka-remove nospam) does.
--
Best regards,
Mark Brown mailto:markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Y = Offset + Amplitude * sin(Frequency * X)
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