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PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
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To those who wrote re X-11 and X-12 re seasonal adjustments and Demetra
software
go to http://forum.europa.eu.int/Public/irc/dsis/eurosam/library
go to
http://forum.europa.eu.int/Public/irc/dsis/eurosam/library?l=/documents_meth
odological&vm=detailed&sb=Title
go to
http://forum.europa.eu.int/Public/irc/dsis/eurosam/library?l=/documents_meth
odological/decomp_zip/_EN_1.0_&a=i
for a history of time series analysis and flow charts of each method in
general use. This has a good discussion re MA's etc. that work in general
empircal use i.e., technical analysis, as opposed to those that are grounded
in statistical methodology.
To others, thanks for the "crack" pages.
Best regards
Walter
----- Original Message -----
From: Howard Arrington
To: @@Discussion
Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2000 4:44 PM
Subject: HEA: Latest on shopping for a computer
Ensign List - http://www.ensignsoftware.com
Hi Reese,
I have watched the auctions that I was fond of last summer, and have been
disappointed.
My favorite, www.OnSale.com appears to have been acquired by EggHead, and
the format and offering have changed. This is the site where Hewlett
Packard used to sell bulk groups of computers at auction, and it was in
these large groups of over 50 in a lot that one could get a good deal. The
large group was also an indication that the computers were virgin straight
from the HP warehouse. My experience with lot sizes of 1 or 2 has been
less than favorable. Frequently for these lots, the computer is truly
refurbished instead of new, it is not shipped in original packaging, the
software CDs have been opened. Twice now the refurbished computers I got
had reliability problems out of the box which required HP service calls.
Fortunately the service call was covered by the 90 day warranty from HP, and
the repairs have made the computers reliable. However, it is a tarnish to
the auction experience and makes me hesitate to bid on small lots.
The 2nd favorite site, www.UBid.com is still the same, but they never have
the large lots from HP. Also, their web site is awkward to use, and it is
harder to tell where the current bid is and if you are still in the hunt.
As a result, it is harder to use this site for bidding.
The OnSale site is no longer an attractive place to bid. They seem to have
loaded up with lots of off-brand computers, which have a history of being
here today and out of business in 6 months. I will not bid on these
fly-by-night knock-offs. I will stick to name brands that I can trust, like
IBM, Compaq, and Hewlett Packard and who provide a warranty with a local
service technician.
The UBid site still has a good listing of Hewlett Packard computers, but the
lot sizes are 1-2. As a result the bids are high and quickly run out of
the price range you suggested. I noticed before Christmas that the
computers I used to bid on last summer were going for $100 more. This I
figured was due to the Christmas demand, and chip shortages due to the
Taiwan earthquake last September. I thought that the demand would lessen
after Christmas and prices return to the level of last summer, or lower,
since there is a price decay with time anyway. However, I am surprised and
disappointed that I am not finding any bargains on these auctions.
In fact, one needs to be really careful at these auctions. I find
frequently offerings in the $300-$400 price for a computer without a hard
disk, and without an operating system. As optional add-ons, this can
quickly elevate the price another $200-$250. Thus, the computer was not a
bargain after all. Another buyer beware is the shipping charge. Last
summer the shipping charges were listed in the range of $25 to $45 and
invariably they would charge me $40 for shipping (high end of the range).
Now they list the shipping charges as $35 to $75, which gives them the right
to charge up to $75. I expect I would be near the high end again, and the
idea of an expected $70 shipping charge means I need to save that much more
on the purchase price in order for the purchase to still be a bargain.
So, I have come to the conclusion that the auction is not what it used to
be. The format has changed, the prices are higher, the large lots are
absent, the shipping charges are a hidden price hike. I suggest that you
look locally for a computer, such as:
1) Sam's Club outlet type of store.
2) Circuit City
3) Want ads in your local paper.
I would think that your local paper would have lots of used computers for
sale, inexpensive, from people who are wanting to upgrade their computer to
a newer faster model. Particularly since you live near an HP facility, I
would think lots of HP employees might have computers they bought with their
HP discounts for sale cheaper than I can find them on the auction.
So, I would really look at the want ads in the paper, and buy a used
computer that is around 1 year old.
Also, since you live near Denver, I am sure there are discount outlet
locations that would have the computers for sale at rock bottom prices.
Here is a check list to use in narrowing down the search. This is what you
want to be sure and get, and please don't settle for less than what I have
listed. I can't stress it strongly enough that these are minimums. Do
not settle for less or you will just be spending money later to replace the
deficiency. You just as well get it right the first time.
1) Buy a name brand manufacturer such as: IBM, Hewlett Packard, Compaq or
Dell.
2) Windows 98 operating system included.
3) Pentium II or AMD K6-2 CPU (I encourage you to avoid Celeron because
of small cache bottleneck)
4) 300 MHz clock speed
5) 64 Meg Ram memory
6) 6.4 Gig Hard disk
7) 24x CD drive
8) 56K modem
9) sound card with speakers
10) video card with 4 Meg memory, capable of 1028 x 768 resolution in 64K
colors
11) mouse
12) 1 parallel port, 1 serial port
Other software included would be nice, such as Encarta, Word, Excel,
Quicken, McAfee Virus Scan.
You can always add the software you presently have, such as AOL.
Microsoft's Internet Explorer and Outlook Express will come with the Windows
98 installation.
I was able to buy better than the above for $410 last summer, plus $40
shipping. Just can't find the same deal on the auctions now, but expect
you can find the same type of deal in your newspaper or at an outlet store
like Sam's Club or Circuit City.
One last caution: DO NOT GET SUCKERED into the advertisements that show a
low price after rebates. A common rebate going around the past few months
is a $400 rebate if you sign a 3 year subscription contract for CompuServe
at $29.95 per month. Let's analyze this:
Internet connection subscription: $29.95 x 36 = $1078 expense for 3 years
Computer deal with rebate $800 - $400 = $ 400 expense
Total cost: $1478
equivalent:
Typical Internet ISP such as I use: $150 / yr. * 3 = $450 expense for 3
years
Computer like I bought without rebate: $410 expense
Total cost: $860
So, the beware anytime you see the computer DEAL that shows an enticing $400
rebate. You are still paying for that $400 in the mark-up they have on the
computer and the mark-up they have built into the monthly Internet
subscription fees. It isn't a deal after all. But some suckers fall for
it. Besides, you use AOL and do not want to switch to CompuServe at a
higher monthly rate just to get a rebate.
Last of all, you and Holly are invited to go to my web site and subscribe to
the Free Trading Tips Newsletter I write. It is the kind of material that
I have shown Holly in the past, and that she wants me to teach her again.
She can get it from my web site and newsletter. I think you would be
interested in the same material and tips so you can understand Holly.
Sincerely, Howard Arrington
Go to Ensign's Web Site>>> http://www.ensignsoftware.com
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