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Not getting solidly below the 1275 neckline(now @ the 33.3% retracement level)
eliminated for the moment the bearish H+Ss pattern (see SP1218.GIF).
The breakout @1323 from the falling triangle(in an uptrend=bullish) gives a LT target(T)
of 1483.10 (1323+160.10), where the hight(H) is 160.10 (1420.10-1260).
The current top escape from the LT Downtrend Channel is a possitive signal by itself, but
Price solidly remaining outside this channel is required for further bullish outlooks.
The Price vs RSI-divergence currently calls for a VST/ST minimum 100+ points drop from
the Dec, 3 top @ 1447.40 down towards the +/- 1330 level (based on the RSI's current level).
Most likely a fallout from this latest Top's small Diamond pattern will than further trigger
this VST/ST corrective fall.
The hight(H) of the Top's small Diamond pattern is 60.50 (1447.40-1386.90) and deducting this H
from roughly a fallout @ the 1400 level would give a target(T) of also roughly 1339.50
and in combination with the Oct, 12 top @ 1335.80 gives reasonable (first) Support.
Since that the RSI not always forcasts "exact" price moves/levels, than a top breakout
from the Top's small Diamond @ roughly 1420 is also still an option and such a move has than
the change of reaching the 1483.10 target(T), that can be calculated from the falling Triangle's
breakout + height(H) (1323+160.10).
A solid value below the last breakout @ 1323 is negative and a plain drop below
the 1275 neckline would make the H+Ss bearish pattern actual again (target 1130) and is both
deadly for the current uptrend as well as a bearish signal by itselve (continuation of LT Downtrend).
Broadening Top-pattern(waves 1,2,3,4,5)
>From this and for the longer term(LT), the Price can tend to go sideways (with for the
moment a very visable 1450-1275-1100 trading range) instead of continuing with its
year-on-year(yoy) uptrend(s). Top heavy perhaps?
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying and
note the new address change. Also for my Homepage
http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
----- Original Message -----
From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: vrijdag 17 december 1999 9:12
Subject: Hold on
> List
>
> Well I haven't made the trades yet, but we have a sell signal against our
> trend. I will check Bloomberg and see what's happening. I might lighten up
> on our positions, since the trade is against our trend. Unfortunately, even
> after today, we have to execute the trade, while hoping for the best.
>
> My brother, who has stuck with his semiconductors for a while, actually made
> a bunch today. He will close out all of his positions and short some DIA,
> QQQ and SPY while not shorting any individual stocks.
>
> This trade is profitable, at least. The reason I'm hesitant is because our
> trend is still up, we have targets of 12040 for the DOW and 1550 for the
> S&P.
>
> Guy
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