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Michael and all:
Sorry if the tone of my post reflected that I was taking offense; although I
can understand, after reading it, how it could be taken that way. I was
suffering from a massive migraine, and, no doubt, it was reflected in my
writing. One of the disadvantages of using E-Mail is that we lose the vocal
inflections and facial expressions that are so integral to communicating
effectively. I guess that's why we have emoticons. d8^)
Dan makes some good points in his post, "...but how will it perform over the
long term in different
markets (bull, bear, flat)?" I can speak a little, at least to the flat
portion which we had during the middle part of the year. My personal
results, I cannot say for the overall system results as I have not had the
time to go back and review all the trades that may have been made during the
April through August period, were relatively flat. I started off the year
strong with a couple of good winners and then went into the Spring and
Summer. During that time I made 5 trades, 3 were winners and 2 were losers.
Generally, that is not a bad winning ratio, but on one of the winners I
made, and this is the truth, a grand total of $5.98 after holding the stock
for a month. The other two winners were not anything to write home about
either, and I wound up losing a little more on the losers than I would like
to. To make a long story short, it is my belief that in a flat market, this
system will not give the type of results that we are looking for in our
trading; too many whipsaws. And even though I came out of the period
slightly ahead, I do believe that one could just as easily come out of such
a patch behind, but that the drain on capital would be slow and not
catastrophic (just depends on how long the flat period last). We have not
had a real bear market to test the system with (sorry, but ,contrary to
CNBC's opinion, I do not consider the '98 correction a bear market), but I
suspect that then we would have to try the system as a short entry vehicle.
In closing, I will continue to post. Please feel free to give me your
comments even if, at times, I seem to be a little depressive about them.
Good Trading
Jeff
-----Original Message-----
From: michael arnoldi <marnoldi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Jeff <jcob3@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, November 28, 1999 5:20 AM
Subject: test results
>i tested it on DJIA, but will try it once again, using your formula just
>posted. it wa not a direct attack on your system at all, so please keep
>us informed of your results. i appologize if offended you, remember i
>had asked you in the past how you got your results & that was in pure
>interest of the system.
>i'll test it now & repost results.
>thanks for sharing ( please continue )
>mike arnoldi
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