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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
8 / 16 / 99
brought to you by Investormap.com
the biggest directory of investing sites on the net.
http://www.investormap.com
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment
survey. The survey was taken from 8/9 through 8/15 on the
Lowrisk.com web site.
Number of participants: 366
30 day outlook:
29% bullish, 21% last week
55% bearish, 61% last week
16% neutral, 19% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 8/20: 10,561 (it
was 10,500 last week). More complete sentiment data is available at:
<http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm> .
Sometimes the sentiment numbers can tell us a lot. Last week we had
some very extreme bearish sentiment and we wrote:
"these sentiment numbers are now reaching extreme
levels. We have not seen a bearish reading above 60%
since 9/13/98, a reading that was followed by a choppy
two week rally of about 400 points on the Dow. This is
not to say that the recent market weakness cannot
continue, but the sentiment numbers do suggest we will
see a strong bounce soon."
We published that last Monday night. The market bottomed on Tuesday
and rallied 424 points into Friday's close.
OK, now on to this week's data. The bearish sentiment has now
dropped somewhat, down 6% to 55%. Bullish sentiment rose 8% to 29%.
Neutral sentiment fell 3% to end at 16%. With the big rally last
week, we would expect this drop in bearish sentiment, so the data is
not telling us quite so much this week. The bearish sentiment is no
longer at extreme levels, at least not "screaming buy" levels.
However, the bearish sentiment is still high, so it looks like there
could be room for further rally. So this will go down as one of
those weeks where the sentiment data looks to be sitting on the
fence.
Our re-designed Guess the Dow seems to be popular, we saw increased
participation last week even though the market is solidly in the
summer doldrums. The new Guess the Dow form is much quicker and
simpler to fill out. Please stop by and put in your opinion on the
market...the more participation we get, the better our sentiment
data. Please stop by to take part in this weeks survey at:
http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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To subscribe to the direct email distribution of this report send
mailto:gtd-request@xxxxxxxxxxxx with the word "subscribe"
in the body of the message. Or stop by
http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment-sub.htm
jwalker@xxxxxxxxxxx
InvestorMap.com- THE investing directory http://investormap.com
Lowrisk.com- making sense of the market http://www.lowrisk.com
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