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Mark,
No secrets here (well, at least as it applies to cocoa...I'm not at liberty
to discuss my universally applied "Wholly Grill" approach). I've posted
the FibCMO a number of times (every time it triggers):
(CMO(C,3)+CMO(C,5)+CMO(C,8))/3
The FibCMO works well as a momentum oscillator. The +5 and -85 trigger
levels continue to work...but, I caution everyone, if the nature of the
cocoa market changes, these trigger levels will need to be adjusted. The
nature of the cocoa market did change in June and it caused a little
heartburn over the summer. All's well that ends well. I filled this
morning at 930 in the September contract and would love to be out of the
trade in days (not months like the last one). Patience is always the key
when you are applying mechanical approaches.
The CocoLoco system has generated approximately four out of five winning
trades during the past two years. The trap is that the trigger points were
"optimized" through backtesting. Yes, they continue to work and yes, I
have since sworn off any approach (with the exception of CocoLoco) that
uses the historical data to "best fit" any variables. It is a nasty trip
into the woods that will only lead to certain death (my own "Bear Witch
Project").
Mechanical method developers unite! Only formulate outside your data. Of
course, go back and test over historical data, but never rely on that data
to determine any variables in your system (exactly the opposite of how the
CocoLoco was developed). As a registered CTA, I must remind you:
"These are not a trading recommendations...trading commodities can involve
more risk than growing up in Detroit."
Steve Karnish
CCT
http://www.equis.com/metastock/success/steve_k.html
----------
> From: Valhalla Futures <scheier@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: CocoLoco
> Date: Wednesday, August 11, 1999 8:52 AM
>
> Steve--
>
> I think you've talked about that indicator before, but it seemed to me it
was
> a Chande derrivative. Have you just changed the name? Oddly enough it
seems
> to respond pretty well to both buy and sell signals while in a defined
trend,
> where most oscillators can usually only be trusted for their overbought
signals
> in a downtrend and oversold in an uptrend. Care to expose this one
again for
> us? And following an earlier thread from last week, it looks like
wheat's
> Railroad Track pattern from a few days back, aka Dead Skunk in the Road
as you
> so aptly re-named it, may be working out afterall. Easy to count the
waves up
> in wheat as simply an ABC correction in the downtrend. FYI, if you want
to
> see another Railroad Tracks pattern, just look at today's OJ, and I think
> you'll see what it's all about.
>
> Mark Scheier
>
> Steve Karnish wrote:
>
> > Traders,
> >
> > Haven't had a trade in my Cocoa system since 6/3/99. Tomorrow morning,
me
> > and a few of the "chosen ones" will be reversing are "summer long",
short
> > positions. This was a difficult one to ride with, but when your on the
> > "mechanical bull" (or bear), the object is to stay on until the bell
rings.
> > Ding dong, we're going long (in the morning).
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > CCT
> >
> > --------------------------------------------------------------------
> > Name: CCUWhollyGrill.gif
> > CCUWhollyGrill.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > Encoding: base64
> > Description: CCUWhollyGrill (GIF Image)
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