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Excerpts from BeursStadium (Dutch mag on Exchange's 4 Phases Trendanalysis)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>From the Downloader's Symbol Look Up List:
-Create a security Advance/Decline (eg the Ratio).
Put a falling straight line over the Highs, starting from March98 up till Jan99(extend right).
Put also a falling straight line over the Highs since Jan99.
-Create a 200-day SMA.
Put a falling straight line over the Highs since March98 up till March99(extend right).
-Create a 10-day and 30-day SMA. Horizontal lines @ +35 and -35.
Put (falling) straight lines over the Highs, starting from Oct98.
---Place all 3 Charts Tiled below one another, with all having the same time interval(X-axis).
Mag's comments:
This will provide a substantial weak-a-ning view of the general bourse-hausse,
to-date since 1996 (eg it's well passed its Top).
Indicators are at an overbought-level and less and lesser securities are making new Highs
(eg therefore these are not participating in the "wellfare hausse").
10-day SMA and 30-day SMA identically have made new Peaks just below the
overbought line(+35) and Peaks as such were lower then previous Peaks (that were made
well above the overbought level) made last year.
The divergence with the Exchange's Index (NYSEcomp) and the DJI-30 urge to be carefull
in these now typical "trader's markets" (eg for the professional traders).
My comments:
Adding too that the bottomming out of the Interest Rates (=Peaking of the Bond markets)
and IMO the stock-picking(FA) + Swing-chart techniques(TA) used for (long term)
Horizontal Markets can be dusted off again.
Also this above looks well like the economic up-cycle(7yrs) is near completion(2000),
the absorbing years(3) to follow ((with plenty of restructurings layoffs due to lower
profits/non-growth).
Starting out lightly around first year(2001), turning "scary" massive in the 2nd+3td
years(2002+2003).
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
----- Original Message -----
From: Gerhard Frischholz <gerhard.frischholz@xxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: zaterdag 7 augustus 1999 0:11
Subject: AW: U.S. Stock Market Crash Index
Thank you Bill for specifying how the indicator is calculated. Looks pretty
straightforward, doesn´t it?
I hope this is not going to end into a crash !
Regards
Gerhard
-----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
Von: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Im Auftrag von Moe Drippins
Gesendet am: Freitag, 6. August 1999 13:21
An: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx; Bill Coward
Betreff: Re: U.S. Stock Market Crash Index
Bill Coward writes:
> I can't vouch for the accuracy of this indicator, but I will pass
> along the formula. The following two pieces of data need to be
> tracked in two columns for five consecutive days (six days for A):
>
> Col A -- Current daily NYSE composite closing price
> Col B -- Number of daily new lows on the NYSE
Bill,
I assume you mean minus for these:
> For each of the last five days, a +1 or -1 is assigned to each value
..........................................^
> in Col A and Col B. The Col A value is determined by comparing the
> value for that date to the value for the previous date. If the
> current date close is greater than the previous date close, assign
> +1. If less than the previous date close, assign -1. Tally up the
...................................................^
> score for Col A (between -5 and +5).
..................................^
>
> The Col B value is determined by assigning a -1 to each day that the
> number of new lows exceeds 74; else assign +1. Tally up the score
.............................................^
> for Col B (between -5 and +5).
............................^
>
> Add the tallies for Cols A and B and you have your "Pitbull Crash Index,"
> or PCI.
>
> My copy of this formula is 2-3 years old and may have been refined by Ford
> during that period. The number 74 for new lows must have been "optimized"
> for all previous crashes. He actually says to use 74 if your data source
> is the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, or Barron's, and to use 40 if your
> data source is Investors' Business Daily. IBD must track fewer stocks on
> the NYSE than the other sources.
>
> Following are some of Ford's comments about the indicator:
>
> "The index runs from a -10 to a +10. A -10 is the most negative for
..................................^......^
> the market and we have always used it as an indicator to exit the
> market. At the other end of the extreme at +10, the market is
> unstoppable, at least in the short term.
>
> "If the index hits -10 at any time during the week (he recommends
.....................^
> checking it each weekend), exit the market the following Monday
> morning. Do not re-enter the market until the PCI hits a +6.
>
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