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Nice Chart/picture.
IMO you have a (for the LT) slow mover on hand with only a ST Trading Range
(eg a 'double' Horizontal Channel) that has its Swing borders @ 1.4 and 2.4
and its (divisory) Median @ 1.9, and a firm support/resistance this Median
level has also been for the past 4 months, where it was first Support (from
end of March till end of May) and then, when it got finaly downbroken (end of May),
and up till now, this level became Resitance.
Major level (1.9) it is also for both the very short term + short term and the Price
will rocket to the Swing's upposite side (the strong Resistance 2.4 level) when
this 1.9 level (also at the same time being the current DownTrend Channel's
falling Resistance line) will be taken out.
The Trend as shown per Chart is
-VST=up a not shown rising trend channel (with higher highs+higher lows) that
started mid-June @ 1.32
and
-ST=down the shown falling trend channel (with lower highs+lower lows) that
has started early Feb and increased its (down) speed from the
mid-April peak
and
-"However Tho"
the RSI signalled a very Possitive Divergence with the last made two(2)
Price Tops (May+July and both @ the RSI's 60 level (not shown, and
a level that is, like 40+50, a common Support+Resistance level in RSI),
eg a bullish possitive divergence between the by the Price indicator made
"lower" placed 2nd consequtive Top(July) and the by the RSI indicator
made "higher" placed 2nd consequtive Top(July)
and
-a Sym Triangle
a pattern that has developed and got down broken (place a straight falling
Resistance line from the Feb peak @ 3.20 over the April 2.75 peak
and click it to "extend right" and place a rising Support line starting @
1.58 March-Low under the early May-Low @ 1.80 and also "extend right")
from which downbreak (@ 1.95) you will see that a valid downtrend has
started for the IMT (inter mediate term) and a move to the patterns target
(break through point minus pattern height, eg (1.95-(3.20-1.60)) @ 0.30)
is well under way
and
-a Sym Triangle
a pattern that is currently under development (place a straight falling
Resistance line from the mid April peak @ 2.75 over the July 1.95 peak
and click it to "extend right" and place a rising Support line starting @
1.32 mid-Jun-Low under (or slightly through) the end-June-Low @ 1.55
and also "extend right") you will see that an undecisive sideways move
is to be expected for the VST (very short term) and a later (also indicating)
break or through for the ST (short term) is to be expected which will then
also show the for ST (future) Price direction.
and
-a Descending Triangle possible fallout with for the pattern a Horizontal line @ 1.50 and
a falling resistance line on the Tops @ Feb peak 3.20 and the April 2.75 peak
(target = Feb peak minus horizontal neckline or create a falling parallel line,
(now placed on coinciding point of the day of Feb peak and the neckline level)
and extend right
and
-a Descending Triangle esthablished fallout with for the pattern a Horizontal line @ 1.85 and
a falling resistance line on the Tops @ March peak 2.72 and the May 2.35 peak
and
-a H+Ss Turnaround
a bullish pattern that when collapsed of its horizontal neckline(1.75) gives
a future target @ 2.20 ((1.75-1.3)+1.75),
where H=1.3 and Ss1=early june 1.62 and Ss2=under development, +/- 1.60).
This pattern is also part of larger H+Ss (neckline @ 2.25 and
Ss1=early May 1.80 and Ss2=under construction/yet to be developped, +/- 1.90)
>From all this:
For the ST, the next break will take place to the Upside (wait for the DownTrend's
Channel breakout) and the closest-to-the-current-date pattern (eg here the H+Ss) is than
best to be used here and shows Price to go up to 2.20+ (eg 2.20-2.40) where it will also
find strong Resistance (see futher in this mail).
For the IMT and LT and from this all Price will remain bearish (eg sideways within the Swing
Trading Range), unless Price >3.20. It will also leave this Price, for the moment, remaining
in a longer term Swing Trading Range, now with for its boundries 2.50 and 0.50 and the
Median to be seen @ 1.50.
Note
Triangles are made by the Price when it is in an undecisive mode, are then also very difficult
to trade and only breaks or throughs will than most of the time speed up any further
directional moves. Triangles too, like most Patterns, are part of the Diamonds family of
patterns, and as such once shown (and correctly found by user) can then predict the minimum
future targets.
Note 2:
That the above figures are based on estimates taken from James' Chart, as such their
true levels can slightly differ, eg the Tops, Lows and Horizontals to be <in real life> a bit
higher or lower than the by me used levels (taken from eye-ball-ing the Chart).
I do not know anything else about this stock other than the Chart + information you and James
have sent in the mails (below).
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
----- Original Message -----
From: James Wolf <jbwolf@xxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: zondag 11 juli 1999 5:06
Subject: RE: A bit of real life analysis
> > I'd like to ask any of you folks so inclined to take a look at the above
> > MACD example, and tell me if it looks to you, as it does to me, that this
> > particular MACD seems to **shout** that this stock is imminently heading
> > higher. I view it as about as near a TA certainty as one could ask for.
> >
> > Is there anything that you would add from a TA standpoint, saying, "Ahhhh,
> > but my young Nicholas, have you also considered the .....??"
> >
> > Thanks,
> > Nicholas
>
> My young Nicholas, Ha, I always wanted to say that !!
>
> Here's my 2 cents, and of course, that's all its worth.
>
> The MACD certainly is/was on an uptrend, but IMO the direction is still
> bearish. It may it turn upward for a short while, but if it fails to exceede
> the last high at ~$1.95, then the trend is still down. Attached is a chart
> showing how I would initially look at it. As you can see it just broke below
> its upward support line that started on June 24.
>
> One could almost say that it is a reverse head and shoulders formation, but
> I'm not convinced. The quick retracement in the last few days is not what I
> would want to see there. IOW <> a drop below that right shoulder at $1.55
> would probably confirm for me that there is more downward territory to be
> had.
>
> This stock would not be one I would be intereted in today. This is not to
> mean that on news it cannot move quickly. This is a small cap stock and any
> news could cause it to swing fast in either direction. I am only saying that
> to me, technically, it is not a consideration. Hope that helps.
>
> Anyone else?
>
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