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Alan writes:
> I trade commodity futures and would like to develop my own Options
> Probability calculator.
>
> Metastock has an indicator built in called "ODDS Probability Cone".
> Does anyone know the formula used for this probability calculation
> (or any other formula for probability).
Historical volatility; stdev(ln(c/ref(C, -1))). They then use that
with standard statistical formulas to determine what price will be the
point at which the percentage chance of the stocking being over (or
under) that price is X%, which you specify when you plot the cone.
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