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Rick
Great statement. Just the points I've been trying to get across. No magic.
Just years of experience and thousands of trades.
After umpteen years, we've finally added some money management techniques to
our trading systems thanks to input from you and others.
We too work on a probability of success with each trade and rely on our
technical indicators to protect us and keep us out of trouble.
"Trading is a numbers game, and once you have a trading/money management
scheme with a
positive expectation, making money becomes only a matter of opportunities.
And once you have systems for going both long and short, a lot of the
market's "noise" is no longer a distraction." Again, like I said above,
it's a numbers game and we're strictly playing probabilities. You look at
each 'opportunity' as just that. An opportunity to make a successful trade.
With regards to that one other element, feel, we exited 80% of our long S&P
positions Thursday evening because we had a signal that said we had a 50 -
50 (not good enough for us to trade by itself) chance of a major correction
and when coupled with the fact that the S&P was trading on top of the
Bollinger Band, we just got out. Wish I could have said we went short, but
we didn't, just locked in our profits.
Anyway, well said!
Regards
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Rick Mortellra
Sent: Saturday, May 15, 1999 3:22 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Essential Indicators!!!
No easy magic bullets my friend. Just alot of hard work and experience paid
for with 15 years of the market's extracted tuition. I trade mechanical
systems because I can't trust myself during these situations. Many are not
even based on standard TA indicators. Most are based on common sense and
simple market observations. All have a positive mathematical expectation of
winning. So my confidence in my systems is what gives me courage to pull the
trigger. This confidence is derived from the trade expectations gained from
thorough backtesting and my trade history (now at 5000+ trades which can
only comes with time.) And I depend on my money management scheme to keep me
out of danger. As long as my system is working is within the range of my
expectations discovered thru backtesting I put on the trade. Trading is a
numbers game, and once you have a trading/money management scheme with a
positive expectation, making money becomes only a matter of opportunities.
And once you have systems for going both long and short, alot of the
market's "noise" is no longer a distraction.
----- Original Message -----
From: Nicholas Kormanik <nkormanik@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, May 15, 1999 6:29 AM
Subject: RE: Essential Indicators!!!
| But on a more serious note, given these tumultuous circumstances, what
| signal(s) would you turn to to help tell you that it's still safe to go
long
| in a particular stock? What one or two indicators will you look at before
| taking the plunge, even though your "sphincter indicator" nearly has you
| 'running'??
|