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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2> Is
it time to quit when we start making money on our mistakes
<G>?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Guy Tann <<A
href="mailto:grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To: </B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Monday, March 29, 1999 10:53 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>RE: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999>JimG</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999>Saw an article in the LA Times today re: NSOL and
their new web site. Supposedly they are close to agreement with the
gov. in terms of how they'll handle the future when other resellers can
compete with them.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=260301706-30031999>I
had doubled up this morning, but took some profit out early and went back to
our normal position per our new money management methodology.
Actually, I tried to use Jack Carl's ETC system, but it only works during
day time trading hours, so I ended up with a 'pending' order out
there. Couldn't delete it (looks like a bug to me), and I wanted to be
long before the market opened, so I entered the orders through Globex on
Sunday night. Tried to call and cancel the other orders 'before' the
open in the morning. I guess they start trading S&Ps before the
market opens, so I had doubles. Wished I would have held them to the
close, but I am seriously working on money management here, and had to close
them out. Held them for about 1 hour and netted 5% profit. First
time I've had a profitable mistake. <G></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999>Let's see what happens with this move. These
numbers are scaring me, but got to follow the system. When our
intermediate signal says sell, I'm going to stock up on some cheap OTM puts
and hold on. Until then, I'll just play the long side like I've been
doing and hope for the best. Been a great March. Counting today,
we're up approximately 30%. Now if we can just follow our new
money management rules and keep it, I'll be overjoyed.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999>Anyway, we're hanging on here, still watching an
upward bias to the market.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999>Regards</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999>Guy</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=260301706-30031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On
Behalf Of</B> Jim Greening<BR><B>Sent:</B> Monday, March 29, 1999 4:54
PM<BR><B>To:</B> metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT
size=2> Glad that Evan's team won. It's
always good to share their excitement when they do win. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I'm also glad to hear that you
got your Buy signal. All my portfolio did great today except my latest
pick, NSOL. Maybe it's just marking time and will start tomorrow with
your Buy signal to help <G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>Guy Tann <<A
href="mailto:grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To: </B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Sunday, March 28, 1999 6:08 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>RE: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999>JimG</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999>As I thought, we have a Buy. Went long
the S&P through Globex.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999>Evan's team won the championship. Even
his mother attended. She was torn as the Cardinal was at the
Parish today conducting Palm Sunday services. My thoughts were,
you can always see a Cardinal, but how many times does your 8 year old
play on a championship team? Of course, I'm not very religious and
count on her prayers to get me into heaven.
<VBG></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999>I should be doing this with grandchildren, but
my oldest is married, 37 years old, and no kids. Number 2 is going
to be 35, has a girl friend (actress who's series on CBS got cancelled
last season) and we haven't heard anything about kids there (they did
just adopt a second dog though <G>). Mary and I have been
left on our own. Actually, this keeps you young (they tell
me).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999>Anyway, we're really enjoying the little
guy. He's in 3rd grade and doing well in his prep school.
Long day for a little guy. Gets on the bus @7AM and I pick him up
at 4PM. Then a couple hours of homework and I'm ready for bed
<BG>. Haven't had much time for anything
else.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999>Good luck on those longs. By taking my
profits early I made an extra 25%, so I'm going to really watch those
quick moves against the trend and grab them early.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999>Regards</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999>Guy</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=630243801-29031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of</B> Jim
Greening<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, March 28, 1999 11:24 AM<BR><B>To:</B>
metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT
size=2> Best of luck on your son's game. I
used to really enjoy those when my children were that age, now I'm
getting to revisit it with my granddaughter's soccer games.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>Guy Tann <<A
href="mailto:grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>
<<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Saturday, March 27, 1999 8:58 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>RE: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=190354004-28031999>JimG</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=190354004-28031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=190354004-28031999>Go for it. I'll post Sunday night
after I get our positions placed and our calculations
completed. It looks like we could have a buy signal as well,
but I'm not going to be around to crank the numbers. My 8 year
old in having his basketball championship game Sunday and we're
busier than all get out preparing for that 'big'
game.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=190354004-28031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=190354004-28031999>Regards</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=190354004-28031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=190354004-28031999>Guy</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=190354004-28031999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of</B> Jim
Greening<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, March 27, 1999 1:04
PM<BR><B>To:</B> Metastock<BR><B>Subject:</B> Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> This was a
very busy week. I added RDC to my portfolio Monday and was
stopped out of DELL. I added DELL back Thursday when it looked
like it was bouncing off the bottom of a long term up trend
channel. Finally, </FONT><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I tried to
relearn the lesson of "Stick to your System". On
Wednesday morning I was stopped out of AMZN and WMT. I didn't
like the looks of the market so I decided to go to 50% cash and
closed out my AOL and SCH positions also. My system was saying
that I should stay in AOL and SCH, but I didn't. Sure enough
both gapped up Thursday morning. I rectified my mistake by
jumping back in, but I lost some profit I would have had if I had
just stayed in as my system called for. The question is - did
I learn my lesson or not? Time will tell
<G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> I still
have cash in my portfolio and want to replace AMZN with another
internet position. After a lot of looking, my choice is
Network Solutions (NSOL). Network Solutions is the exclusive
registrar -- for the time being -- of address names ending in
domains .com, .edu, .net, and .org. The company, which has
registered more than three million addresses, provides domain name
information to Internet root servers worldwide, and offers intranet
development and network security services. To me, this looks like a
license to coin money since all the companies and individuals
registering names must pay an annual fee <G>. It's an
extremely volatile stock so it's not for the weak of
heart.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT
size=2> NSOL at $106.50 is in a wide
Intermediate Term Up Trend Channel (ITUTC) with the top at 190 and
the bottom at 102 1/2. It looked like it bounced off that
bottom Thursday and Friday. During the week it fell from
Monday's high of 153.8 and lost 30% of its value as a Market Shorter
tried to jaw bone it down and succeeded, at least temporarily.
I think he was wrong and this is a buying opportunity, but a very
risky one. The binary wave is positive, but falling and the
QStick is negative and falling as you would expect after a 30% drop
in a week, so they aren't much help. The long term trend is
definitely up and the fundamentals are interesting for an internet
stock. NSOL has the typically high internet price/sales at
18.9, but it offsets that with actual earnings which is unusual for
an internet stock. It has current earnings of $.34 and its
sales, income, and EPS are all showing growth rates over 100% per
year. Since this is such a volatile position, I'm going to
watch it Monday morning and only enter if it is rising. If I
do get my position, I'll set my initial target just under Monday's
high at 150. I'll set my stop just under the ITUTC at 101
3/4. If it takes off, I'll switch my stop to a short term
channel just as soon as it makes sense to construct
one.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Mar 30 21:07:13 1999
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Message-ID: <001d01be7b16$72d34d20$95a194d1@xxxxxx>
From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "Metastock bulletin board" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: excel workbooks
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 20:33:14 -0500
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I received columns heading for Stridsman's basic information and statistical
summaries about a tradable at
http://www.futuresmag.com/industry/downloads/downloads.html
"... "Working in a coal mine" January 1999 Article spreadsheet This
spreadsheet includes the charts and data used for the article, as well as
additional out-of-sample data not shown in the article. Excel 97 spreadsheet
> Subject: Working in a Coal Mine - spreadsheet download
> Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 12:28:54 -0500
> From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: "James T. Holter - Futures M" <jholter@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
I am adding column headings, comments etc. using the January '99, February
'99, and June '98 article re Durbin-Watson statistic and general Excel
statistics package which you've included in the workbook.
>
> Would you please fill in some of the blank column
> names (for sheet #1 - the daily S&P data):
>
> Sheet # 1 = daily S&P data 1985 to 1994
> Sheet # 2 = weekly etc.
> Sheet # 1:
> Column A = date
> B = Open
> C = High
> D = Low
> E = Close
> F = Percentage Change (E4-E3)*100/E3
> G = counting # of up or down days
> H = Sum of up or down days
> I = blank
> J = Absolute value of "F"
> K = Absolute value of "G"
> L = Absolute value of "H"
> M = blank
> N = "G" without empty cells -- Corr. calc. in cells 1291 and 1292
> O = For sorting purposes
> P = Absolute value of "G" -- Corr. calc. in cells 1291 and 1292
> Q = blank
> R = "F" without empty cells -- Corr. calc. in cells 1291 and 1292
> S = For sorting purposes
> T = Absolute value of "R" -- Corr. calc. in cells 1291 and 1292
> U = blank
> V = "N" sorted in up/down periods
> W = For sorting purposes
> X = Corr. calc. for "V" in cells 648 and 1290
> Y = blank
> Z = "R" sorted in up/down periods
> AA = For sorting purposes
> AB = Corr. calc. for "Z" in cells 648 and 1290
> AC = blank
> AD = Same as "T" -- For statistical analysis together with "AE"
> AE = "Same as "AD" but lagged one cell -- For statistical analysis
together with "AD"
> AF = blank
AQ = Same as "Z" -- For statistical analysis together with "AR"AR = Same as
"AQ" but lagged one cell -- For statistical
analysis together with "AQ"
This workbook covers basics such as up and down moves; likelihood for
periods in a row; % of moves of certain length; % of moves of certain
amplitude.
If any one has a list of basic price "attributes" of a stock or tradeable, I
would appreciate hearing from you, e.g., average true range, bar patterns
such as gaps, key reversals, narrow and wide range days etc., seasonality,
including days of week and days of month, momentum, volatility, etc.
I want to develop a workbook that will give me a detailed "picture" of the
characteristics of the tradeable.
Will have to start reading Kaufman in much more detail!
Best regards
Walter
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