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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> This was really one of
those weeks. First of all I closed my SDTI and BS positions Tuesday as
SDTI hit my target and BS closed below my stop. Then on Wednesday I
panicked and closed my AOL and MSFT positions as they opened below my stops and
it looked like the bottom was falling out of the market. It turns out that
they didn't close below my stop and, by my system, I shouldn't have sold
them. With the way the market moved up Friday, I would have been better
off not closing them. That just shows how hard it is to stick to your
system some times and why I write about it to help me do better next time
<G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> Actually, I didn't feel
too bad about closing the positions since they were very much over weighted in
my portfolio due to the large profits in both of them. I partially offset
my mistake by opening new normal size positions in both AOL and MSFT Friday
morning. I also opened new positions in C and SCH at the same time.
Even with those four positions I still have enough cash left for about four more
normal size positions - Thanks AOL and MSFT!!!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2> In
reviewing last year I was mostly in large cap, fast growing, high P/E, high risk
positions. That paid off with a large gain for the year even though it was
touch an go at times. This year I would like to reduce the overall
portfolio risk without giving up too much profit potential, if that's
possible. I think most of the action will continue to be in the large cap,
fast growing, high P/E, high risk positions, but I also think it is about time
for the small cap value type stocks to start catching up. I think we have
seen some of that already by the relatively good luck I've had with the fallen
angel, January effect type stocks I've experimented with lately. So this
year I've decided to shoot for about a 50/50 mix of large cap and small cap
stocks along with a 50/50 mix of momentum and value plays. I've got a good
base of large cap momentum type stocks with my current positions in AOL, MSFT,
and SCH. The current large cap value plays are C and HRC and I want to add
another this week. My current small cap value plays are MDM, RDC, and
SIF. My only small cap momentum play is SKYW so I'll add another this week
and more in the following weeks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> This week's large cap value play is
Federal National Mortgage (FNM). Actually it's not totally fair to
characterize Fannie May as a value play since it did break out to a new all time
high a couple of months ago and its earnings are growing at almost 17%
annually. I also expect that growth to continue and even accelerate with
the record setting home sales trend we have seen recently. FNM could be
considered a housing, finance, or interest sensitive stock and all three groups
are doing great so let's hope FNM benefits from all <G>. My small
cap momentum pick is a unique retailer, Sharper Image Corp (SHRP). It is a
San Francisco based purveyor of quirky gadgets and eccentric electronic
items. It has 90 stores, mostly in the U.S., but the recent jump in
volatility has come from interest in its new Internet site.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> FNM at 71 1/8 has been in a sideways
consolidation since it broke out to a new all time high in late Oct98. It
just tested that break out point for the third time Wednesday then moved up on
good volume Thursday and Friday. I'm hoping it has consolidated and will
move on up from here. I got a tema PDI-MDI buy signal in late October and
the indicators look like they would be ready to give another if one wasn't
already in effect. The fundamentals are good with a price/sales of 2.48,
P/E of 23.2, debt/equity of 17.54 which seems high but isn't bad for the home
mortgage business, ROE of 24/8%, annual sales growth of 12%, and annual EPS
growth of 16.9%. I'll open a position some time Tuesday. I won't set
a target until we get enough data for a good Short Term Up Trend Channel.
I'll set my stop just under the four month low at 66 3/4.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> SHRP at 15 3/8 is bouncing off the
bottom of a wide Trader Vic type STUTC that was caused by the recent volatility
associated with their Internet web site and its increasing sales. The top
of the STUTC is at 33 and the bottom is at 14 7/8. SHRP gapped up to a new
all time high of 22 3/8 on 11/30/98 during the initial excitement about its web
site. It then fell back and moved sideways for a couple of months before
gapping up again to just under that high on Monday and then going on to set a
new all time high of 25 on Tuesday. It then fell back to test the bottom
of the channel again Friday. This volatility isn't for the weak of heart,
but I do believe there is excellent profit potential from here and we will have
close stop for protection. This isn't a typical Internet stock with no
earnings, but rather an established retailer with decent numbers. While
its current earnings are currently negative, analysts are expecting $.30 per
share in 1999. Its price/sales is 0.58, debt/equity is 0.61, and annual
sales growth is 9.5%. I'll open a position some time Tuesday. I'm
hoping for a quick run to my initial target of 24 which is just under Tuesday's
high but will protect myself with a stop of 4 3/4 in case I'm
wrong.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jan 18 16:10:56 1999
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From: BAUDECB@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Christian Baude)
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: "Adam Hefner" <VonHef@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Dynamic Multiple Time Frames
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 1999 23:55:33 GMT
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Equis recently posted the following:
Dynamic Multiple Time Frames - Robert Krausz, TASC Bonus/1999, p.45.
Equis WEB site
All formulas are written to use daily data. The lines are plotted as
described in the article, with the fixed lines only changing their
values on the first day of each week.
A sixth formula, Tendency, was added to indicate which way the price
will tend to move, based on the relationship between the Friday close
and the fixed balance point. This formula plots a value on Thursday
and on Friday just in case Friday is a market holiday. On every
trading week which includes Friday data, ignore the Thursday value. A
value of 1 means prices will tend up first and a value of -1 means
they will tend down
Variables were used in places to simplify the formulas and to allow
the referencing of certain values in formulas that plot multiple
lines.
________________________________________
Dynamic Balance Point
Ref( HHV(H,5)+LLV(L,5)+C, -1)/3
_______________________________________
Dynamic BP Steps
WBPS:= Ref( (HHV(H,5)+LLV(L,5)+C)/3,-1);
( WBPS + Ref(WBPS,-5) + Ref(WBPS,-10) + Ref(WBPS, -15) +
Ref(WBPS,-20) ) / 5
________________________________________
Fixed Balance Point
day:=DayOfWeek();
FBC:= If(day=1,
If(BarsSince(day=1)>5,
Ref( HighestSince(1,day=2,H) + LowestSince(1,day=2,L)+C,-1)/3,
Ref( HighestSince(1,day=1,H) + LowestSince(1,day=1,L)+C,-1)/3),
If(day=2 AND Ref(day,-1)>1,
If(BarsSince(day=1)>5,
Ref( HighestSince(1,day=2,H) + LowestSince(1,day=2,L)+C,-1)/3,
Ref( HighestSince(1,day=1,H) + LowestSince(1,day=1,L)+C,-1)/3),0));
ValueWhen(1,FBC>0,FBC)
______________________________________
Support & Resistance
day:=DayOfWeek();
WR:= If(day=1,
If(BarsSince(day=1)>5,
Ref( HighestSince(1,day=2,H) - LowestSince(1,day=2,L),-1),
Ref( HighestSince(1,day=1,H) - LowestSince(1,day=1,L), -1)),
If(day=2 AND Ref(day,-1)>1,
If(BarsSince(day=1)>5,
Ref( HighestSince(1,day=2,H) - LowestSince(1,day=2,L),-1),
Ref( HighestSince(1,day=1,H) - LowestSince(1,day=1,L),-1)),0));
WRV:= ValueWhen(1,WR>0,WR);
T1:=Fml("Fixed Balance Point") + (WRV*.5);
T2:=Fml("Fixed Balance Point") + (WRV*.618);
B1:=Fml("Fixed Balance Point") - (WRV*.5);
B2:=Fml("Fixed Balance Point") - (WRV*.618);
T1;
T2;
B1;
B2
____________________________________________
Weekly BP Steps
(Peak(1,FmlVar("Fixed Balance Point","FBC"),1) +
Peak(3,FmlVar("Fixed Balance Point","FBC"),1) +
Peak(4,FmlVar("Fixed Balance Point","FBC"),1) +
Peak(5,FmlVar("Fixed Balance Point","FBC"),1) ) / 5
____________________________________________
Tendency
{Used to indicate which way the price will tend to move}
If(DayOfWeek()=4 OR DayOfWeek()=5,
If((HighestSince(1,Cross(3,DayOfWeek()),H)+
LowestSince(1,Cross(3,DayOfWeek()),L)+C)/3<C,1,-1),0)
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