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<DIV><BR>Hi Jerry,<BR>What I am doing is comprised of several components..
breadth.. sentiment..<BR>as well as different price momentum ideas ... like
moving averages.. and<BR>rates of changes.. with a slight addition with interest
rate sensitive<BR>ideas... like the utility index... there is no one magic
system.. so that is<BR>why I use 16 different ones.I have tested over the
years.. 60 different types of ideas..found the simplest ones stand the best
chance to work... I scale in and out... this is what I have to<BR>be the
safest... that is what I am striving for.. but anything can happen in<BR>the
markets..one of the systems is a swing idea.. [very simple.. but viable..]of
4%... sell 4% swings<BR>down from the highs.. and buy 4% from the bottom.. this
alone will whip you<BR>around.. but you might want to use it as a filter...
t<BR><BR>thanks<BR><BR>Andy Abraham<BR>Angus Jackson<BR>-----Original
Message-----<BR>From: Jerry Swanson <<A
href="mailto:Swanwoods@xxxxxxxxxxx";>Swanwoods@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>To: Andrew
Abraham cta <<A
href="mailto:angus@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>angus@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>Date: Thursday,
December 17, 1998 2:48 PM<BR>Subject: Re: a note to Andrew<BR><BR><BR>>Hi
Andrew: I am using a 3/10 ema crossover, a 3% stop loss and a look
at<BR>>the +DI-DI spread; right now I'm having trouble determining the
dominent<BR>>trend. Have had about 5 losing trades in a row,
possibly because I'm<BR>>confusing a trending market for a trading range
market. Would appreciate<BR>>some assistence.
jerry......<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>>Hi
Jerry,<BR>>><BR>>>I am not using the Ursa ... just the Nova.. I am
very risk averse and my<BR>>>concept is to scale into the market when it
is possibly healthy and when<BR>>>clouds start appearing I look to scale
out and go to cash.. I have made<BR>>>models that are more aggressive that
go short. Doing so the rewards are<BR>much<BR>>>greater but the drawdowns
are also increased.. I have built my portfolio<BR>by<BR>>>risk.. the
concept of scaling in and out is my lowest risk idea... I am<BR>>>looking
for a result a couple of percentage points greater than buy
and<BR>>>hold..[ 17.5%] car... and much less time invested in the market
and at<BR>lower<BR>>>allocations.. and foremost lower drawdowns...for more
risky I have a model<BR>>>that day trades the Sp500 futures.. it can have
a drawdown of 30-45% but<BR>has<BR>>>tremendouse upside also..this year
200%... but in my testing there were<BR>>>years that were 20% and 30%.. as
with systems once and a while there are<BR>>>spectacular results.. but on
the other hand greater than expected<BR>drawdowns<BR>>>also.. this is in
the upper part of my risk triangle.. In conjunciton I<BR>>>trade a basket
of commodities... it is also big risk.. 30% drawdowns<BR>>>possible but
looking for returns of 20-50%...<BR>>><BR>>>I will take a look at
your site.. what do you use to make your<BR>decisions...<BR>>>? If I can
assist you please let me know..<BR>>><BR>>>Thanks<BR>>>Andy
Abraham cta<BR>>>Angus Jackson<BR>>>-----Original
Message-----<BR>>>From: Jerry Swanson <<A
href="mailto:Swanwoods@xxxxxxxxxxx";>Swanwoods@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>>>To:
angus@xxxxxxxxxxxx <<A
href="mailto:angus@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>angus@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>>>Date:
Thursday, December 17, 1998 11:47 AM<BR>>>Subject: a note to
Andrew<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>>><BR>>>>Hi Andrew:
Thanks for the Market Vane site. I am interested in
your<BR>>>>notions of Market Safety. But I am even more interested in
your ideas of<BR>>>>how to time Nova/Ursa. At present I am about
20% Ursa, based on the<BR>same,<BR>>>>or similar, sentiment information
that you are using. Can you share with<BR>>>>me how you time
Nova? BTW some friends and I are hosting a free Rydex<BR>>>>Asset
Level Sentiment Indicator at<BR>>>><A
href="http://www.fundvision.com/tools/ral.html";>http://www.fundvision.com/tools/ral.html</A>.
Take a
look.<BR>>>><BR>>>>Sincerely,
jerry.......<BR>>>><BR>>>><BR>>>><BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>><BR></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Dec 25 23:30:12 1998
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From: "Lionel and Gail Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: OFF Topic: TradeWins Book with over 99% winning trades
Date: Thu, 17 Dec 1998 15:00:03 -0600
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If this book met its claims it would be priceless and the author wouldnt
sell it. If it doesnt meet its claims, it is worthless. If you had a goose
that laid golden eggs, would you sell it?
You can have 100% winning trades and still lose money because of transaction
costs.
Lionel Issen
-----Original Message-----
From: Thomas Winklhofer <Thomas.Winklhofer@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Metastock List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, December 17, 1998 2:22 PM
Subject: OFF Topic: TradeWins Book with over 99% winning trades
>Hi everyone,
>
>a company named TradeWins promises ~99% winning trades in the TASC
>Dec98 issue when you buy their new book 'The Science of Automatic
>Options Profits' by K. Anand.
>
>Who has read the book already and traded their concepts?
>
>Is this book worth the price of $175? They say you get the money back
>when the system does not win on at least 9 out of every 10 trades for 3
>months.
>
>For me it sounds more than unrealistic.
>
>Thanks for reply
>
>Best Regards
>Thomas Winklhofer
>
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