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>Those of you who are interested in receiving direct mail pls confirm this with
>me directly demon@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Hello Rajesh,
And yep, sorry to hear about you having to stop sending your Mentors highly appriciated
and very educational mailings to the List. As such the List will loose a very valuable asset.
So do put me on your private Elliot-Scope Mailing List, please. (this is very urgent!!!).
On my part, from having written some mails on TA as well, know how frustrating all the
work can become. Therefore my suggestion to your Mentor would be to try to benifit
in cash from the markets as well as on writing about them, as a way of compensation
and this then being the 'fuel' to continue writing and exploring.
We as his Elliott Wave followers cannot go into the EWave details involved with the
EWave-theory+counts as deeply as much as specialists like your Mentor can do.
Keeping up with them can be considered doing quite well, as getting aquinted with EWave
does take up years of experience and practice.
This doesn't mean we do not try to understand your Mentors reasonings+calculations and
as such highly appreciate your Mentors strictly applying the EWave theory+counts.
I myselve have been into EWave since 1991 and only when your Mentor send his
formulations and reasonings through mails to you to the List, things became much clearer to me
(also with the help from the ELWAVE programs' Help files as well).
In life in general, and technical analysis of the stock markets in particular and in the automobile
techniques in particular, I have done things sometimes differently as to the way as how I was
theoreticaly taught by teachers and the books, and did so with very possitive results.
Another example, Head + Shoulders theories require Volume for its patterns to be "true",
but since I follow about 200 Indexes from around the world and as these are also in quite
a variaty of subjects, I can hardly ever make any "true" calculations as most do not have
or come with any Volume.
Even so, I still keep on using the H+Ss theory and then just omit the volume part, and have
them still for 99% working out ok.
My reasoning for an unfinished A,B,C correction stems from using some of the other TA-techniques
as well as your Mentors explained Elliott Wave Counts.
For instance, the latter bullish Irregular H+Ss pattern 8600-7400-8400 gave us an upwards
hight of 1000 points and a target of roughly 9400-9600.
The latest bearish and also -unfinished as yet- now developing H+Ss pattern 8400-9400-8400?
will provide us with a retest of the former 7400-7800 levels.
This retesting is also very common in the markets A,B,C corrections(the tech-corrections) which
wave order have frequently occured in the past tech corrections.
This last pattern is also not only true for the DowIndu but also for the S&P and most other (incl.
EUROland) Indexes.
As such -and in general- A,B,C corrections can be used when markets do their Technical
Corrections to the Mean, the MP(mid price) and now by not relating it to the EWave-theory
but just it being part of the general TA bit on tech-corrections.
On his+my reasoning for a A wave down from 9300 to 7400, some of the Ewave-specifics
might not have been met up with (I have not checked this), but I wonder if these always ought to be
met up with to/for the full 100% extend for them to be always to be true.
My calculations resulted in a 5-wave (impulisve) down pattern, the B wave to be 5-wave
(impulsive but corrective) up pattern and the latter C wave to become a 3-wave (corrective)
a,b,c pattern, with a 'major' ST temporary pause(b wave) at the 8400-8600 range and the
finalising end at the 7400-7800 range(c wave).
The Rising Wedge in the DownTrend with its latter fallout will then be fully corrected to its
starting-point and the ongoing H+Ss bearish pattern currently developing can provide the means
for this to become true, too.
The Triple Top pattern available on most international Indexes Charts and formed since the March98
Highs provides for the Major valleys support with that for the Indu to be found at 7400 and S&P
at 950-930.
Most indicators have already given the sell signals and show heavy divergences for this upcoming
correction of the latter Bull Trap-rally to be expected.
>From then on the in Jan99 to be announced companies profits forcasts for 1999 and later will have
to provide for the fuel for the markets to surpass previously made Major Tops (latter All Time Highs)
and these forcasts will not all be that gloomy, at least not enough for the markets to keep up its
septicism as to the legitimateness of these ATH's levels made in the past, and will remain us
therefore in the Trading Range 9400-7400 as is set since March98.
More additional downgradings for the to be expected 1999 profit results will provide us for and with
the fuel to re-test the Sep98 7400 Low levels.
As the EWave theory stems from the range of Charles Dow Trend theories, the latest strugling attempt
by the DowTrans to at least keep up with the by the DowIndu made Lows have so far only resulted in
its short lived rally up, and continued to fail as to its monthly SMA5 doing a bullish Golden Crossing
with its monthly SMA10 (or its weekly SMA10 with its weekly SMA30).
For any constructive UpTrend to be solid and valid, these crossings an confirmations are required, but
are ingredients that are not to be found.
Industries producing goods to markets that do not want to buy these products(ask Boeing) only
explains why the produced goods aren't being transported and why the DowTrans remains to fail to
confirm any possible outbreak by the DowIndu ever since as early as in April98.
Not to mention what continuous producing goods that no one wants will do to the already stacked full
wharehouses and what negative effect this will have on future price increases, of which price increases
the goods producing companies could benefit possitively, profit-wise.
And as always the Price+its patterns will have and give the 'right' answer.
Hope you can persuade and confince your Mentor to continue to forward his excellent mailings as
being part of bringing the proper EWave-theory directly out in the open and also keeping it understandable
for humans and it also to become one's basics tools to read and act on/in the markets.
I was always thought that the EWave cannot be traded, however your Mentor has proven this info to be wrong.
Therefore also Metastock, as being an extensively equiped "general" TA-program, highly misses out on one
of the TA basics, the EWave Tools.
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxx
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