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> Actually, in the editing process of the
> original article, TASC accidentally omitted the correct
> period setting for the system, which was 28. :) Only
> the oscillator uses a period length of 12.
The odd thing is that if you compare 12 periods vs. 28 on a chart of DELL,
it's clear which one would seem to do a better job of getting you in and out
-- especially out (and recently, in) -- at the right time. I've attached a gif
showing 28 periods on top and 12 on the bottom. The light blue bars represent
bullish periods, the gray bearish, and the rest neutral. You buy when the
stock turns bullish and sell when it's no longer bullish.
Profit tests show that with 12 periods, starting 1/22/92, you'd have an annual
percentage gain of 258 percent. The total percentage gain would be: 1766.59
With 28 for the period, the annual percentage gain is 126 percent. The total
gain would be: 861.48.
So I really don't know about 28 periods. I'm using these formulas:
Enter long: n := 28 {Time periods};
BullFear := (HHV(HIGH,n) - LLV(HIGH,n))/2 + LLV(HIGH,n);
CLOSE>bullfear AND Ref(CLOSE,-1)<Ref(bullfear,-1)
Exit long: n := 28 {Time periods};
BullFear := (HHV(HIGH,n) - LLV(HIGH,n))/2 + LLV(HIGH,n);
CLOSE<bullfear AND Ref(CLOSE,-1)>Ref(bullfear,-1)
Change n to 12 for 12 periods.
I've even heard some people say they prefer 9 periods, but that does the worst
of off the bunch with DELL: 112 percent a year. I used 0 commissions in the
tests, btw.
Brooke
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\DELLBULL.gif"
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