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N.R Elliots' Wave Update



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Giancarlo Gaydou

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<H1>
<FONT COLOR="#3366FF">N.R.</FONT> Elliots' Wave Update</H1></CENTER>
<FONT SIZE=+2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
The <FONT COLOR="#3333FF">Not Really</FONT> Elliot Wave page</FONT>
<P>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
dedicated to the arbitrageur, hedger, speculator,
<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
trader, futures trader, portfolio manager or anyone
<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
interested in the probable future direction of interest
<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
rates.
<BR><BLINK><FONT COLOR="#FF0000"><FONT SIZE=+2>10/26/98</FONT></FONT></BLINK>
<BR><BLINK><FONT COLOR="#FF0000"><FONT SIZE=+1>1:30 pm</FONT></FONT></BLINK>
<BR><FONT COLOR="#000000">USZ</FONT>
<TABLE BORDER COLS=2 WIDTH="100%" >
<TR>
<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
SUPPORT</FONT></TD>

<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
RESISTANCE</FONT></TD>
</TR>

<TR>
<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">127-27/03</FONT></TD>

<TD></TD>
</TR>

<TR>
<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">127-22</FONT></TD>

<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">128-16</FONT></TD>
</TR>

<TR>
<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">127-15</FONT></TD>

<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">128-23</FONT></TD>
</TR>

<TR>
<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">127-00</FONT></TD>

<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">129-00</FONT></TD>
</TR>

<TR>
<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">126-18/21</FONT></TD>

<TD><FONT COLOR="#000000">129-20</FONT></TD>
</TR>
</TABLE>
<FONT SIZE=-1></FONT>
<P><FONT SIZE=+2><FONT COLOR="#3333FF">Comments:</FONT><BLINK><FONT COLOR="#CC0000">
1:30 pm</FONT></BLINK>&nbsp; <FONT COLOR="#000000">Based on the formation
from this mornings low I believe we may be moving up in a C wave that is
targeting the 131-06 high of&nbsp; 10/16 + or - 9 ticks.&nbsp; It is a
little early to be very certain of this but that is how it appears to me.&nbsp;
I might try to get long using the Dec. calls on a trade back to between
127-27 and 128-03.&nbsp; The trade that is more interesting to me however
is the short that comes out of this rally.&nbsp; I might try to hold off
on establishing a long until tomorrow, not because of anything more than
the fact that I still believe this is a bear market rally and don't wish
to get caught in an overnight selloff.&nbsp; In a perfect world I would
look for a run up to 128-22 to 128-25 followed by a return to the 128ish
level where I would enter a long position. 127-19 would be my stop.</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=+2></FONT></FONT>
<P><FONT SIZE=+2><BLINK><FONT COLOR="#FF0000">10:00am&nbsp; </FONT></BLINK><FONT COLOR="#000000">This
mornings' weakness, while un-nerving was only a B wave of some degree and
now it is&nbsp; most important to find the A wave high from which it began.
While there are several scenarios which I have gone through before, the
first one to concern ourselves with is one that would end somewhere between
127-22 and 128-16. The rally should be a 5 wave move and that should be
what we focus on.</FONT></FONT>
<P><FONT SIZE=+2><FONT COLOR="#3333FF">Strategy:</FONT> I am currently
looking to play a counter trend rally to near 131 and then will be looking
to get short for a large move.</FONT><FONT SIZE=+2></FONT>
<P><FONT SIZE=+2>Interesting places to visit:</FONT>
<P><A HREF="http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge_news/150.1.html";>how about
a financial markets morning update?</A>
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2>charts</FONT>
<BR><A HREF="http://chart1.bigcharts.com:80/report?r=qchart&onbad=qbadsymbol&hide=0&symb=hm&time=20&sid=2417&sec=c&xyz=110753016&s=17917";>stock
and index charts</A>
<BR>futures charts
<BR>more futures charts
<BR><A HREF="http://www.astrikos.com/public/currency.html";>currency charts,
even intra-day</A>
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2>options</FONT>
<BR>here's a great option site.
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2>cycles</FONT>
<BR><A HREF="http://www.ecr.mu.oz.au/~chemeng/rjbclink.htm";>here are links
to sites related to cyclical analysis</A>
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2>links to links</FONT>
<BR><A HREF="http://www.leetrade.com/links/";>check out these financial
related links, especially the 'links list'</A>
<BR><A HREF="http://www.io.com/~gibbonsb/wahoo.html";>as complete a list
of trading related links as I could find</A>
<BR><A HREF="http://www.smotass.net/bookmark.html";>here are links to almost
anything you might want futures related</A>
<BR>&nbsp;
<P>This page is in the early stages of development and is changing as the
day and days go by.
<BR>I plan to target what I think are important sites to link to if your
interests are in the area of futures trading, cash market trading, arbitrage,
hedging, speculating or just watching the markets. From time to time I
will include charts as well as comments on related markets such as equities,
precious metals, currencies, etc.
<P>&nbsp;<FONT SIZE=+2>This page is very much under construction.</FONT>
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<P>If&nbsp; you have comments or suggestions, email me at <I>sardou@xxxxxxxxxxxx</I></CENTER>

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<P>8-16
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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Oct 27 08:49:24 1998
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From: "Bill Saxon" <bsaxon@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Point & Figure Indicator
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 08:17:48 -0500
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Are the flaws apparently present in MSs presentation of this indicator
fatal.  Do they render it useless in interpretation of intermediate moves?
AIQ also has P&F.  Does anyone know if this suffer from the same problem?  I
know nothing of P&F but had thought about investigating it.  I don't want to
waste the time if if won't do the job.  Thanks.
-----Original Message-----
From: Von Hef <VonHef@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, October 26, 1998 9:28 PM
Subject: Point & Figure Indicator


> I know its long....but its the best I can do.
>The following indicator will plot the high of the "x" column and the
>low of the "o" column in a stairstep manner on a barchart. If the
>high value changes then the low should hold its value until there
>is a "P&F" reversal, then as the low changes the high should
>hold. The first two lines are the Box and Reversal values, and I
>wasn't sure what the best "Input" values should be so please feel
>free to suggest any changes. My goal is to design a system
>around this indicator, to test different Point and Reversal amounts,
>but its nice to examine the P&F support and resistance levels on
>a bar chart. Also, I am not as experienced as many on this list nor
>am I above making errors, so test the value of this indicator for
>yourself.
>
>         { Point & Figure Indicator }
>              { by Adam Hefner }
> {Note: this will plot the high of the
>  "x" and low of the "o" on a barchart}
>
> {box value}
>BS1:=Input("Box Size ?",.1,100,1);
> {reversal amount}
>RS1:=Input("Reversal Amount ?",1,10,3)*BS1;
> {box high calculation}
>BH1:=(Int(H/BS1))*BS1;
> {box low calculation}
>BL1:=If(((Int(L/BS1))*BS1)=L,
>     {then}L,
>     {else}((Int(L/BS1))*BS1)+BS1);
> {reversal calculation}
>DH1:=If((BL1>=Ref(BL1,-1))AND
>       ((BH1-RS1)>=Ref(BL1,-1)),
>     {then}1,
>     {else}0);
>DL1:=If((BH1<=Ref(BH1,-1))AND
>      ((BL1+RS1)<=Ref(BH1,-1)),
>    {then}1,
>    {else}0);
> {Determine market direction}
> {NOTE: The value of D1=
>              1="trend up"
>             -1="trend down"}
>D1:=If(DH1=1 AND DL1=1,
>   {then}If(BarsSince(Ref(DH1=1,-1))=
>            BarsSince(Ref(DL1=1,-1)),
>         {then}If(BarsSince(
>                       ValueWhen(3,DH1=1,DH1))<
>                  BarsSince(
>                       ValueWhen(3,DL1=1,DL1)),
>               {then}-1,
>               {else}1),
>          {else}If(BarsSince(Ref(DH1=1,-1))<
>                   BarsSince(Ref(DL1=1,-1)),
>                {then}1,
>                {else}-1)),
>   {else}If(BarsSince(DH1=1)<BarsSince(DL1=1),
>         {then}-1,
>         {else}1));
> {time since market reversed}
>DH:=BarsSince(D1=1);
>DL:=BarsSince(D1=-1);
> { plot high and low }
>PH1:=HighestSince(1,DH=1,BH1);
>PL1:=LowestSince(1,DL=1,BL1);
>PH1;
>PL1;
>
>Best wishes,
>              Adam Hefner.
>e-mail:  VonHef@xxxxxxxxxx
>
>_____________________
>
>