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Looks like I was blocked from the list from some unknown reason.
Mentor speaketh "
Oct 22, 1998
It means I can't draw trendlines and can't
get real values. So I will have to talk by sign language since I'm
now referring to the Yahoo/Clearstation charts.
As I'm strongly in favour of a 5-wave upward movement, let's start
counting. Taking 7467 as the bottom, until yesterday's market action,
you can count a 1,2 & 3 completed. The 3 is longer than the 1. If it
is indeed going to be a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse pattern, then the 5 must
extend. As the market has still not moved up substantially, this
1-2-3-4-5 will only be a Ist wave of one higher degree. In this
scenario, the 4 is currently forming. The 4 must never retrace more
than 61.8% of 3 if the 5 is going to extend. So mark the 61.8%
retracement level on the chart. Draw the 0-2 trendline. This
trendline may or may not be broken by 4. The important factor is
that the 4 must not retrace more than 61.8% of 3.
Let us suppose that the market moves up strongly without breaking the
0-2 trendline and without retracing more than 61.8% of 3. This will
give rise to another possibility. The 3rd wave could be breaking up
into a 1-2-3-4-5. Keep the 0-2 trendline firmly on the chart for the
time being.
Suppose the market retraces more than 61.8% of the 3. Keep the
labelling of the 1 intact, change 2 to (a) and 3 to (b) and wherever the
downward movement ends to (c). This (a)-(b)-(c) would then
become 2. Since the (b) wave is highly irregular, the (c) wave MUST
fail. You will also get a new 0-2 trendline. If the (c) wave does not
fall into the territory of the (a) wave, the (a)-(b)-(c) 2nd
wave pattern will be a running correction making way for a powerful
extended 3rd wave.
If the market retraces more than 61.8% of it's movement from 7467 to
8652, then we are in an upward corrective phase. However, even if we
are in a corrective phase, I do not believe that such a 61.8%
retracement of the entire movement will take place because that
would signify that an a-b-c flat correction is taking place.
If we are in an upward corrective phase, my reading is that the
market would form a X-wave with this X-wave going substantially above
9367. It could be in the form of a double or triple zig-zag or
possibly a double zig-zag plus flat.
As we are in the initial stages of the upward movement, many
possibilities exist. As the market unfolds, we will discard some of the
possibilities, narrowing down to zero in at the final stages when the
Elliot pattern nears completion.
"
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