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uhhhh, sounds right to me... <g>
At 10:06 PM 10/6/98 , you wrote:
>Oct 6, 1998
>
>Draw a trendline from the IInd wave termination point (8672 - I think)
>through the presumed IVth wave termination point - 8182. When the
>market rallied to 8160 subsequently, I think it breached this
>trendline. This is unacceptable because no part of the Vth wave must
>break the II - IV trendline. The only exception to this rule is if
>the Vth wave is a terminal impulse (diagonal triangle). Accordingly,
>the II - IV trendline has to be adjusted to 8160 and this point has
>to be taken as the end of wave IV. Therefore, wave V started at 8160
>and this makes us adjust the max downside target to 7374.
>
>Now the Vth wave will be in 5-waves. The 1st wave of these 5 waves is
>complete - from 8160 to 7530 = 630 points. If our overall analysis
>is correct (that the market should not break 7374), THEN THE 1ST WAVE
>HAS TO NECESSARILY BE THE EXTENDED WAVE. Let us now try read the
>market presuming that the 1st wave is the extended wave. When the
>1st wave extends, the 2nd wave will normally not retrace much more
>than 50% of the 1st wave. Also when comparing the 2nd and 4th waves
>- the 2nd wave will be more complex than the 4th wave and will
>normally take more time than the 4th wave. A 50% retracement gives
>a target - 7530 + (630 X 0.5) = 7845. The market rallied to 7830
>on Friday. I do not know what pattern the 2nd wave will make but
>Monday's market action seems to indicate a normal a-b-c flat
>correction. The a-wave of this flat correction terminated at 7830,
>the b-wave at 7551 and the c-wave is in progress. THIS c-WAVE WILL
>NOT GO MUCH ABOVE 7845 (15 TO 20 POINTS MORE IS OK) and at this point,
>the 2nd wave of the Vth wave will terminate and the 3rd wave downwards
>will begin. This 3rd wave will certainly break the 7530 bottom. I
>don't know by how much, but if my overall analysis is correct, maybe
>by 70 to 100 points. After the 3rd wave completes, the 4th wave
>upward will begin. If this 4th wave falls into the 2nd wave area
>(i.e. goes above 7530) the entire Vth wave will turn into a terminal
>impulse pattern. If the entire Vth wave fails to breach the bottom
>of the IIIrd wave, i.e. 7400 - the entire pattern from 9367 to
>the end of the Vth wave will be known as a Vth failure. When the
>Vth wave fails THERE WILL BE NO NEW LOWS (OR HIGHS - IF THE PATTERN
>WAS TRENDING UPWARDS) IN THE MARKET UNTIL AND UNLESS THE ENTIRE
>Vth FAILURE PATTERN IS COMPLETELY RETRACED. In this case that would
>mean the market will cross 9367. Let us closely observe how the
>market behaves in the coming days.
>
jwalker@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.lowrisk.com
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