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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> I sure was wrong about
that clear sailing to the top of the Horizontal Channel, looks like the DJI will
test the bottom instead <G>. All my open positions closed below
their stops today, so I'll close everything tomorrow with one possible
exception. DELL did break through the bottom of the short term up trend
channel but is now close to the bottom of the intermediate term channel.
If it opens up tomorrow and looks like it's trying to turn, I may hold on
to it. On the other hand, I don't want to let a profit get away
<G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Jim</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Oct 01 19:00:08 1998
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Fri, 2 Oct 1998 02:48:26 +0200
Message-ID: <000501bdeda6$84feff60$fc5679c3@xxxxx>
From: "A.J. Maas" <anthmaas@xxxxxx>
To: "Metastock-List" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: "rijt, wil v.d." <wil.rijt@xxxxxx>,
"Rene Dennesen" <dennesen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Onno Goedknegt" <goedkneg@xxxxxx>, <m.jonker@xxxxxxxxxx>,
"LuudMaas2" <nlcou936@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "KLPD, Jan" <klpdmozo@xxxxxx>,
"Jan Diederik Haas de" <jddehaas@xxxxxxx>,
"derksenf" <derksenf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Jan van Diessen" <diessen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RWI - Random Walk Index system
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 1998 02:44:23 +0100
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================================================================
RWI - Random Walk Index System - E.M. Poulos/T. Maas - for Metastock v6.x
================================================================
Re-written by Ton Maas - 981001 - Ms-IRB@xxxxxxxxx - Amsterdam - The Netherlands.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The original formula of the Random Walk Index, was created by Equis Intl. using
information from the article "Are There Persistent Cycles", by E. Michael Poulos,
in the September 1992 issue of TASC.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This indicator is defined as the ratio of an acutal price move to the expected
random walk. If the move is greater than a random walk, and thus a trend is present,
its index will be larger than "1.0" .
Random Walk
An economic theory that price movements in the commodity futures markets and in the
securities markets are completely random in character (i.e., past prices are not a
reliable indicator of future prices).
Random Walk Index
Description
In an effort to find an indicator that overcomes the effects of a fixed look-back
period and the drawbacks of traditional smoothing methods, Michael Poulos developed
the Random Walk Index. The Random Walk Index is based on the basic geometric concept
that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. The further prices
stray from a straight line during a move between two points in time, the less
efficient the movement.
Interpretation
Mr. Poulos found significant evidence during his research that the "dividing line"
between short- and long-term time frames for most futures and stocks is right around
eight to 10 days. Therefore, he feels an effective trading system using the RWI can
be devised using two different time frames:
1.a short-term RWI (two to seven periods) for the market's frantic, random side and
2.a long-term RWI (eight to 64 periods) for the market's steady, trending side.
-Peaks in the short-term RWI of highs tend to coincide with price peaks.
-Peaks in the short-term RWI of lows tend to coincide with price troughs.
-Readings of the long-term RWI of highs above 1.0 provides a good indication of a
sustainable uptrend.
-Readings of the long-term RWI of lows below 1.0 provide a good indication of a
sustainable downtrend.
Indicators
The Random Walk Index is standard build-in in Metastock v6.5. See below for its
Parameters. However custom versions can be build by using the Indicator Builder.
In Metastock v6.5:
NAME Random Walk Index [6.5] High
SYNTAX rwih( PERIODS )
FUNCTION Calculates the predefined Random Walk Index of the highs indicator.
EXAMPLE rwih( 21 )
NAME Random Walk Index [6.5] Low
SYNTAX rwil( PERIODS )
FUNCTION Calculates the predefined Random Walk Index of the lows indicator.
EXAMPLE rwil( 21 )
Parameters v6.5
Standard Time Periods ST = 9
Standard Time Periods LT = 70
Standard Indicator Color = High: Red,Solid and Low: Red,Dotted
Standard Horizontal Line = 1.0, Black/Blue
Note that by DEFAULT the v6.5 build-in is set to 9 for the periods used for both
functions, and when 'dragged' from the Indicator Builder to the chart, both will
be promptly plotted as the 1 indicator in their inner window.
In Metastock v6.x:
NAME:
"Random Walk Index [6.0] High"
Formula:
{This is the ST 9-day version of the RWI. Color High: Red,Solid
and the Low: Red,Dotted. Horizontal line at 1.0(Black/Blue)}
Standard Horizontal Line = 1.0, Black/Blue
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-1)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),2),-1) / 2)*Sqrt(2) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-2)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),3),-1) / 3)*Sqrt(3) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-3)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),4),-1) / 4)*Sqrt(4) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-4)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),5),-1) / 5)*Sqrt(5) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-5)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),6),-1) / 6)*Sqrt(6) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-6)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),7),-1) / 7)*Sqrt(7) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-7)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),8),-1) / 8)*Sqrt(8) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-8)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),9),-1) / 9)*Sqrt(9)),0))))))))
NAME:
"Random Walk Index [6.0] Low"
Formula:
{This is the ST 9-day version of the RWI. For High: Red,Solid
and the Low: Red,Dotted. Horizontal line at 1.0(Black/Blue)}
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-1) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),2),-1) / 2)*Sqrt(2) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-2) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),3),-1) / 3)*Sqrt(3) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-3) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),4),-1) / 4)*Sqrt(4) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-4) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),5),-1) / 5)*Sqrt(5) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-5) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),6),-1) / 6)*Sqrt(6) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-6) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),7),-1) / 7)*Sqrt(7) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-7) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),8),-1) / 8)*Sqrt(8) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-8) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),9),-1) / 9)*Sqrt(9)),0))))))))
Note that for both the High+Low as functions or as indicators "friendly error
messages are returned regarding the division of "0". This is very common in
the program and in this they can be ignored. These "friendlies" will not
affect their functioning, values, output or readings.
NAME:
"Random Walk Index [6.0] LT High"
Formula:
{This is the LT 50-day version of the RWI. Color High: Red,Solid
and the Low: Red,Dotted. Horizontal line at 1.0(Black/Blue)}
SUM(
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-1)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),2),-1) / 2)*Sqrt(2) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-2)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),3),-1) / 3)*Sqrt(3) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-3)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),4),-1) / 4)*Sqrt(4) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-4)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),5),-1) / 5)*Sqrt(5) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-5)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),6),-1) / 6)*Sqrt(6) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-6)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),7),-1) / 7)*Sqrt(7) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-7)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),8),-1) / 8)*Sqrt(8) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-8)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),9),-1) / 9)*Sqrt(9)),
0)))))))),40)
NAME:
"Random Walk Index [6.0] LT Low"
Formula:
{This is the LT 50-day version of the RWI. For High: Red,Solid
and the Low: Red,Dotted. Horizontal line at 1.0(Black/Blue)}
SUM(
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-1) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),2),-1) / 2)*Sqrt(2) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-2) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),3),-1) / 3)*Sqrt(3) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-3) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),4),-1) / 4)*Sqrt(4) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-4) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),5),-1) / 5)*Sqrt(5) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-5) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),6),-1) / 6)*Sqrt(6) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-6) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),7),-1) / 7)*Sqrt(7) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-7) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),8),-1) / 8)*Sqrt(8) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-8) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),9),-1) / 9)*Sqrt(9)),
0)))))))),40)
System
Mr. Poulus feels that an effective trading system could be built that opens
trades (after short-term pull-backs against the direction of the long-term trend)
using the following guidelines:
·Enter long (or close short) when the long-term RWI of the highs is greater
than 1.0, and the short-term RWI of lows peaks above 1.0.
·Enter short (or close long) when the long-term RWI of the lows is greater
than 1.0, and the short-term RWI of highs peaks above 1.0.
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