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Neal
We've been successfully using mechanical systems for a lot longer than 25
years. Have to say that it's not the same mechanical system :). The
markets, relationships, etc. are constantly in a state of flux requiring
constant maintenance of various mechanical systems (or tweaking as we like
to refer to it).
What we used in the 1950s stopped working by 1970. Stuff we used in the
1970s quit working in the late 70s. Systems in the 80s worked great but do
not work currently. What we're doing now bares no relationship to those
prior systems, other than most of the underlying techniques and basic
indicators are the same. It's how we use our indicators and how we put them
together that changes.
Earlier this year, we changed our trading rules when I noticed that T Bonds
had decoupled in a major way from equities. Prior to this decoupling, we
used to wait on trading the S&Ps until Bonds didn't have an opposite signal.
Now they seem to be going their own unique way.
I guess what I'm saying is that if you meant that you don't know of anyone
using the "same" or "basically the same" mechanical system for 25 years, I'd
have to agree with you. If on the other hand, you are saying that no one
has used mechanical systems profitably for 25 years, I'd have to disagree
with you.
That's why I question purchasing black boxes, etc.
Regards
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Neal Hughes
> Sent: Thursday, October 01, 1998 2:09 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Do these skis actually make the turns for you?
>
>
> At 03:41 PM 9/30/98 -0700, you wrote:
> >Neal writes:
> >"Thanks Mike, but that calculator is inadequate for real
> >Fibonacci trading.
> >
> >It will do the basics, just as Metastock will, but does
> >not have the advanced stuff"
> >
> >Steve replies:
> >
> >I sent this email attachment (929wzfib.gif) to 20 people last
> >night. This is the one I'm sending tonight (930wz). Now, I
> >understand that a "free" calculator (the one that I used to draw
> >these fib retracements) can't be as wonderful as a $295 piece of
> >software ... so, please tell us about all the "advanced stuff".
> >Does it do a better job at identifying the retracement levels?
> >For some of us, who have used fibs for 25 years, the "free"
> >calculator works pretty good and it's a lot better than pushing
> >a pencil (of course, I also used to ski on wood slabs).
> >
> >Steve Karnish
> >CCT
>
> Hi Steve,
>
> I can't make sense of those charts, they seem to have some
> basic Fibonacci levels on them. The problem is that when you
> combine these levels from multiple time-frames it becomes
> a messy useless chart. It was not obvious to me where
> the levels were measured from, but I did not give it much
> time.
>
> If you've been doing it for 25 years, there is no need to
> swap your old planks for some new carbon/resin skis, just
> do what you do so well! But for someone new to the sport,
> there are ways to shorten the learning curve. If they're
> going to risk pain and injury, it would be foolish to save
> a few dollars by getting your old planks :-)
>
> In the markets (as you know), no skis make the turns for you.
> I don't know of any private traders who have succeeded using
> a mechanical system for 25 years.
>
> There is a web page which describes the advanced stuff:
> http://www.fibtrader.com/
> just click on the "FibNodes Software" link.
>
> Best wishes,
> -Neal.
>
>
> -----------------
> Neal on the 'net.
> Trade well. Train hard.
> http://www.halcyon.com/neal/
>
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