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Hi Harley (and Metastock users),
I read your posts whenever I can, yesterday it happened
at a time when I could respond. Thanks for your past posts.
That chart is from FibNodes, a nifty software for displaying
and calculating advanced Fibonacci support/resistance levels.
The graphic display show Fib support/resistance levels in a
way that makes it easy to determine "Confluence" which are
areas where long-term and short-term Fib Nodes are close
together. These are areas of formidable strength, ideal for
hiding your stop-loss behind, or for initiating new positions.
I wrote an explanation of this some time ago, here:
http://www.halcyon.com/neal/fib.html
By "weakness" I was saying that AMAT is turning down even before
it reaches that resistance Confluence. This happens quite often,
and AMAT is down today too. My FibNodes calculations
show that a good place to take short-term profits on this
SHORT trade is at about $24.75 or just before. This does
not necessarily mean AMAT will "turn on a dime" there, but
the odds of extracting more profits is reduced below there.
These advanced Fibonacci levels are leading indicators, they
show a (*very* probable) change in price direction before
price gets there, as opposed to lagging indicators (MACD,
Stochastic, MFI, RSI etc) which confirm a change after the
fact. If you know where the leading indicators predict a change,
you can watch price action for confirmation and take action.
Also, having such a leading indicator allows you to fade the
popular indicators, giving you an edge over the crowds.. Take
a look at the attached gif of AMAT. FibNodes was alerting you
to a short opportunity just as Stochastic was telling most people
to buy!
Take care,
-Neal.
At 08:17 PM 9/29/98 -0500, you wrote:
>Hi Neal,
>
>Now Neal you will need to explain the chart a little. I know you are busy
>too. But I have never seen that chart before. Also what are you observing as
>weakness.
>
>Harley
>
>Neal Hughes wrote:
>
>> At 02:55 PM 9/29/98 -0500, Harley Meyer wrote:
>> >Not much going on with either today.
>> >
>> >MU will end down about 3/4 of a point from where it closed at 32 1/2
>> >during the day session. It is trading at 31 3/4 about 15 minutes before
>> >the close. I am in at 31 1/4.
>> >
>> >AMAT will close up about 1/4 at 26 3/4. I would prefer for it to close
>> >down but that is life.
>> >
>> >Still holding these positions.
>> >
>> >Harley
>> >
>> >
>>
>> I'd say your wish will be granted, looks like AMAT wants to go
>> down from here. There is Fib resistance at $28.13 to $28.20
>> and it looks like AMAT is weakening before it gets there.
>>
>> -Neal.
>>
>> --------------------------------------------------
>>
>> Name: Amat0929.gif
>> Amat0929.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
>> Encoding: base64
>>
>> --------------------------------------------------
>>
>> -----------------
>> Neal on the 'net.
>> Trade well. Train hard.
>> http://www.halcyon.com/neal/
>
>
>
>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\amat0930.gif"
-----------------
Neal on the 'net.
Trade well. Train hard.
http://www.halcyon.com/neal/From ???@??? Wed Sep 30 12:22:31 1998
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From: "John Kosar" <jk@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: System Testing
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1998 12:53:17 -0500
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Hello list,
I'm a very experienced (15 years) technical analyst looking for someone
with very strong computer system testing skills to work with as a partner.
I'm interesting in computer testing my trading methodologies programmed and
tested for the purpose of developing them into a mechanical system.
Any interested parties can contact me via email.
John Kosar
Carol Stream, Illinois USA
jk@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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